Alwaght- A month after Syria's interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa called for Pakistan to supply Syria with weapons, now some reports talk about potential military agreements between Damascus and Islamabad.
Last week, media outlets reported that Syrian Defense Minister General Murhef Abu Qasra met Pakistan's military attaché in Syria and Iraq Brigadier General Irfan Maqbool Ahmed. Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA) reported that the two sides discussed boosting bilateral ties and military relations in various areas.
What does Pakistan seek?
This military closeness should be seen as part of Islamabad's effort to expand its military and political influence across the region. The country over the past few months has pushed to transform from a merely diplomatic player to an effective actor in the region's security architecture. Mecca Pact with Saudi Arabia and Turkey, signed on August 7, bore one of the marks of this approach.
According to the agreement, any attack on any of these countries will be an attack on all, and it insists on boosting collective deterrence and defense cooperation. Pakistani leaders described the pact as "defensive."
Cooperation with Syria could become another link in Pakistan's strategy to cement its place in the region's new security architecture. Syria holds strategic importance for Islamabad given its geographic position, its adjacency to the occupied territories, Lebanon, Iraq and Turkey, and its role in Eastern Mediterranean equations.
Pakistan also boasts considerable capacity in the defense industry. Expanding its arms export market, selling military equipment, training armed forces and taking part in rebuilding Syria's defense structure could deliver economic and political dividends for the country.
Obstacles to expansion of Islamabad-Damascus military cooperation
Despite signs of expanding ties, military cooperation between Pakistan and Syria faces major hurdles. The first is Syria's fragile security situation.
The government of al-Sharaa, himself a former Al-Qaeda member, still confronts enormous challenges in integrating armed groups, rebuilding the army and consolidating control over the entire country.
The second obstacle is regional actors' sensitivity to any shift in Syria's military balance. The Israeli regime is watching Syria's military developments closely, and any strengthening of the country's defense capabilities, particularly in missiles, drones and air defense, could trigger a reaction from Tel Aviv. Turkey's presence and influence in Syria's new security architecture is another variable shaping Damascus's defense cooperation with other countries.
Another issue is Pakistan's position vis-à-vis Iran. Alongside its strategic ties with Saudi Arabia, Islamabad, given its neighborhood with Iran and its security and economic considerations, cannot remain indifferent to the fallout from rising Tehran-Riyadh tensions. Direct entry into the Yemen war or participation in an anti-Iran military coalition could strain Pakistan's relations with Tehran and even inflame domestic tensions. The Pakistani parliament's refusal to join the Yemen war in 2015 shows that Islamabad's entry into such conflicts runs up against political and social constraints.
Saudi Arabia; the linking ring between Pakistan and Syria
Riyadh's role in closeness of Pakistan to Syria is key. Over the past months, Islamabad has worked to, using military and political capacities of its allies, create a new security structure in the region. The Mecca Pact serves this aim.
Saudi Arabia is looking to reduce its security dependence on the US, which has proven incapable of meeting Riyadh's military and defense needs, while building a network of defense cooperation with countries that possess military capability and regional influence. Pakistan brings manpower, military experience and defense capabilities; Turkey offers advanced defense industries and considerable operational capacity. Syria, with forces that have years of ground-war experience and fighting armed groups, could add operational and training capacity to this grouping.
The weight of this cooperation for Riyadh has grown since the escalation of the Yemen war and the uptick in Yemen's Ansarallah missile and drone attacks on Saudi targets. To counter these threats, the kingdom is seeking defense, training and operational support from its allies.
Will Syria get involved in Yemen war?
Reuters has reported that over the past few days, tens of Syrian military forces have been dispatched to Saudi Arabia to provide military and advisory service to Saudi and Yemeni forces. Two Syrian sources and a senior American official have provided the data to Reuters.
According to the report, Syrian teams are assisting training programs to the Saudi forces and the forces allied to Aden-based government. A Saudi official has said that cooperation with Syria is majorly aimed at rebuilding and re-organizing Syrian armed forces, but this does not conflict with using experience of the Syrian forces in countering armed groups.
Earlier, in October, reports emerged of possible deployment of Syrian forces to Yemen to assist military operations of the Saudi-backed forces. Axios even reported Syria mulled sending 10,000-20,000 forces to the battlefields in Yemen.
US warning
Washington's stance, meanwhile, carries particular weight. A senior American official confirmed to Reuters that Washington has advised Damascus to proceed cautiously, since Syrian military involvement in the Yemen war could drag the country into a wider regional conflict, a war the new Syrian government has so far sought to stay out of.
Indeed, despite closer relations with al-Sharaa's government after Bashar al-Assad's fall in December 2024, Washington has reservations about expanding the scope of Syria's military activity in the region. The US is likely concerned that Damascus's involvement into the Yemen war, rather than stabilizing the new Syrian government, would entangle it in conflicts whose fallout spill go Yemen's borders.
