ALWAGHT- According to the IEA chief, commercial oil stocks are shrinking fast, and the world has just weeks of reserves left as a result of the US-Israeli aggression against Iran disrupting the Strait of Hormuz.
Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), told reporters at a G7 finance leaders' meeting in Paris that strategic oil reserves "are not endless." He warned that commercial oil inventories are declining rapidly and will only last "several weeks," especially as spring planting and summer travel in the northern hemisphere increase demand for diesel, fertilizer, jet fuel, and gasoline. Birol noted a "perception gap" between physical and financial oil markets, explaining that while there was a major surplus before the US-Israeli aggression began on February 28, the war has rapidly shifted the situation.
According to the IEA's latest monthly oil market report, global observed oil inventories fell at a record pace in March and April, dropping by 246 million barrels. To calm markets, the 32-member IEA coordinated the largest-ever release of stocks from strategic reserves in March, agreeing to withdraw 400 million barrels, with around 164 million barrels released by May 8. The agency slashed its previous forecast, now projecting that overall global oil supply will plunge by approximately 3.9 million barrels per day across 2026 due to the war.
The US-Israeli aggression was launched amid indirect US-Iran negotiations. Iran swiftly retaliated with missiles and drones on Israeli-occupied territories and US bases, and shut down the Strait of Hormuz to its enemies and their allies. Tehran introduced stricter controls after President Trump announced a blockade targeting Iranian vessels and ports, insisting that the measures violate a Pakistan-brokered ceasefire. Iran has stated it will not reopen the Strait—through which one-fifth of the world's oil and gas supplies pass—unless the illegal blockade is lifted and the war reaches a permanent end.
