Alwaght- With the much-vaunted massive Ukrainian counterattack running into robust barrier of the Russian defense and Kiev growing disappointed with the capability to retake the lands it lost to Russia, the developments of Ukraine war in recent months have not seen a specific change and a relative stagnation is dominating the war atmosphere. Meanwhile, there are speculations about reactivation of international mediation by foreign actors to test the chances of brokering a peace deal.
Now and in the latest development, the Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday that Saudi Arabia is slated to take a role as a new mediator between Moscow and Kiev. According to the report, the Arab kingdom is set to host peace talks earlier in August.
Citing diplomats with the knowledge of the matter, the American newspaper wrote that high-ranking officials from 30 countries, including Indonesia, Egypt, Mexico, Chile, and Zambia, are invited to Jeddah for August 4 and 5 meeting.
It is stated that it is not yet clear how many of the invited countries will attend the talks, but it is expected that the countries that participated in the Copenhagen talks will also attend the Saudi-hosted event.
Britain, South Africa, Poland and the European Union are among the countries that have confirmed their presence, but the US has not yet taken an official position.
The Saudi hosting of the talks comes as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attended an Arab League meeting in Jeddah on May 19 to press countries for Kiev support. Meanwhile, despite affirmatively voting to a UN resolution condemning Russia's military campaign in Ukraine, the Arab countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, have mostly tried to stay neutral and not disrupt their relations with Moscow by supporting Kiev.
Not a few number of political observers describe the chances of success of the Saudi initiative slim in the current circumstances, as Moscow claims it has annexed about one-sixths of Ukraine and peace negotiations are likely to yield fruits only when Kiev accepts the new realities. Reacting, Ukraine says peace talks are possible only after Russian pullout.
Still, the Saudi mediation efforts are pursuing an agenda that goes beyond just a truce, and this is what makes them significant.
Saudi foreign policy shift
The Saudi position on Ukraine war in a general view of the foreign policy direction it has followed in recent years confirms continuation of the new policy path Riyadh has taken in dealing with the requirements of the changes in the regional and international order. The Saudi foreign policy in the early 21st century was a serious element of the anti-communism camp during the Cold War and was in close relation with the regional security network led by the US in the Persian Gulf. But now the kingdom is taking an increasingly non-aligned stance.
More signs of this policy are observable in the past few months, including the fact that Saudi Arabia picked China for mediation of a détente deal with Iran, seen by many international affairs observers as a surprise.
Another example of Saudi Arabia's new approach during the strategic competition between the West and the East can be seen in Riyadh's resistance to the American pressure for more oil output to lower the surging oil prices, which was an important part of the West's plan to ground Russia's economy. As part of the OPEC+ structure, Saudi Arabia chose to work with Russia to maintain oil prices high by cutting production, angering Biden and US lawmakers.
We can give more instances of the Saudi gradual distancing from the Western policies in Ukraine. For example, the Saudi mediation for release of 10 non-Ukrainian captives from the detention of the Russians in later 2022 was surrounded with controversy.
When 10 non-Ukrainian mercenaries who faced death sentence by the Russian-backed separatists were released and returned home, The Sun, citing 5 British nationals among the 10,reported that Roman Abramovich, the former Russian owner of Chelsea football club, was on board the plane carrying the captives to Saudi Arabia from Russia, something seen as revealing the behind-the-scenes Russian-Saudi relations at the time of the massive Western sanction campaign against Moscow.
The news about the expected Jeddah meeting came after the US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on Thursday visited Saudi Arabia in a bid to mend chill-stricken American-Saudi relations. But now amid the meaningful US silence, the Saudi hosting of peace talks and showing a position of neutrality in the Russian-American proxy confrontation is consonant with the deeper Saudi foreign policy change observable in the past months. The Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed is looking at the Saudi future while adapting to the shifting international conditions, and he is striving for establishing a broader balance of power in the Persian Gulf where he envisions a future in which a post-American era eventually emerges.
