Alwaght- Israeli protests at what the government calls judiciary reforms have turned into a security challenge with insubordination of the reserve air force pilots and inflamed the concerns about a coup and chaos inside the occupied territories. Though Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that the army should be subordinate to the cabinet, thousands of military personnel joined the opposition defying the warnings and setting off the alarm bells about a looming civil war in the occupied territories.
To discuss the critical situation of the Israeli military and its impacts on the home developments and security of the occupied territories, Alwaght talked to Iranian expert of West Asian affairs Hassan Hanizadeh.
Alwaght: How serious do you think is the gap inside the Israeli army? And what consequences will this security challenge bear to the Israelis and the occupied territories?
Hanizadeh: The gap inside the Israeli army has broadened recently due to the aggressive approaches of Benjamin Netanyahu's cabinet and his unjustified use of army reserve forces to suppress the Palestinian people, which has led to the erosion of the army power.
The army polarization and resignation of more than 10,000 reserve army personnel show that the Israeli society has suffered political chasms and this polarization may lead to the removal of Netanyahu's cabinet. Although there has been no history of coups by the Israeli army, the desertion of soldiers will be a prelude to the beginning of street riots and eventual ouster of Netanyahu's cabinet.
It looks like President Joe Biden and his cabinet are discontented with rise of a hardline Israeli cabinet that has high political and prestige costs to the US and West. Actually, the present circumstances are in a way that Netanyahu’s cabinet will have to resign before protests grow larger and prospects of a civil war come further in sight.
Alwaght: How serious can the reserve forces’ defiance impact the controversial plans of the cabinet?
Hanizadeh: Indeed the army has always been and is at the service of various governments as a repression instrument, but its unjustified use to confront the Palestinians contributes to the erosion of the forces. The increase in the conflicts in the occupied lands and the uprising of the people of the West Bank against the Israeli regime have spread insecurity in the occupied lands. The beginning of the reverse migration of Israelis from the occupied territories to the United States and European countries has caused concerns among Western leaders, because they think that this migration is driven by the aggressive and irrational policies of Netanyahu’s government.
Alwaght: How aligned is the regular military body with the reserve forces? Will it join the mutineers if the crisis intensified?
Hanizadeh: The reservists are part of the armed forces with their number reaching over 400,000. This is a large number as it is twice as large the number of the regular forces. So, there is a fully systemic relationship between the regular and reserve forces.
Since the reserve forces are usually considered part of body of the political parties in the Israeli regime, the opposition parties can have a great impact on these forces. Israeli internal conditions are socially and politically unstable, and if the protests continue, it may lead to a civil war. It is said that some people around Joe Biden have asked Netanyahu to fire 5 radical ministers affiliated with ultra-orthodox parties from the cabinet, but Netanyahu has opposed this proposal. It is believed that Netanyahu will soon be forced to resign as prime minister due to illness and that an early election will be held in occupied Palestine in early autumn.
Alwaght: How will gap inside the military structure influence the confrontation of the resistance groups of Palestine and Lebanon?
Hanizadeh: The division inside the army will weaken the ability of these forces to deal with the Axis of Resistance wings, especially the Lebanese Hezbollah and the Palestinian resistance movements. Although Netanyahu is trying to transfer the internal crisis outside the borders through a lightning attack on Gaza or even Lebanon, the Israeli prime minister knows very well that he lacks international and regional support and is afraid of starting a new adventure.
Alwaght: How likely is the military defiance to spread to security and intelligence institutions like Mossad and Shin Bet? Mossad chief has recently said if the crisis escalates, he will “stand on the right side of history” and act according to the law.
Hanizadeh: It is possible that a part of the security and intelligence institutions that oppose Netanyahu's aggressive policies will join the opposition ranks in the future, and this is dangerous for Israeli regime's body. The outbreak of chasms inside the army ranks is unprecedented in the past 75 years, and this could be seen as a prelude to Israel's gradual disintegration. The reason for this is that all of Netanyahu's plans to withdraw the Israeli regime from political isolation and normalize relations with the Arab countries have failed due to his aggressive behavior.
Alwaght: How likely is the army interference in the politics and a coup under the guise of defending democracy? With the security conditions deteriorating, how like are political changes in Israel?
Hanizadeh: Essentially, coup is not in the Israeli army vocabulary, as it is a tool of repression serving the cabinets. However, improper and illogical use of military forces can, naturally, draw reactions from the army generals. Due to the influence of the party leaders in the army, a scenario similar to 2011 scenario that happened to Egypt’s Hossni Mubarak and led to his ouster can happen to Netanyahu. Demonstrations are likely to continue in the occupied territories and confrontations escalate and army generals ask Netanyahu to step down. It seems that Biden's fiery criticism of Netanyahu’s aggressive approach is a green light to the Israeli generals to force Netanyahu out of the office using non-coercive mechanisms.
