Alwaght- Once having stone and slingshot as their only weapons against the armed-to-the-jaw Israeli military, Palestinians now possess missiles that have strong deterrent effect in the face of Tel Aviv Regime. Until recent years, the Israeli military had no problem getting involved in war with the Palestinian groups in Gaza, and when it felt threatened, it bombed wherever it wished in the Palestinian enclave, but now, it does not engage in a fight against the resistance groups uncalculated. A look at the course of Israeli wars waged against the resistance groups shows that they are shorter now and today, everybody knows that Israeli regime is unable to fight a long-time war.
Resistance built deterrence
The Israeli regime claims it has the most powerful military in the region, but at the time of action, it becomes clear that this military is not but a hallow shell. The Tel Aviv officials have said that they would continue massive attacks on Gaza for a few days, but as soon as hundreds of rockets began to rain down on the occupied territories, they changed their minds as usual and reached out to regional mediators seeking a ceasefire to save themselves from further dangers. The struggle of the Israelis for a ceasefire is due to the military power of the Gaza resistance groups, who have made many achievements in missile field in recent years, and now by creating deterrence against the enemy, they have shown that hit and run era is over.
Always hiding a surprise for the Israelis in any war, the resistance groups this time, too, did so unveiling part of their domestic capabilities. As resistance commanders said, in recent conflict, they have fired rockets with high technologies and capabilities that could escape the Iron Dome interception. These rockets, beyond Iron Dome interception capability, forced the Israelis to deploy David’s Sling, a missile system serving as the second layer of the Israeli air defense and developed to engage powerful and advanced missiles. The Israeli officials have several times admitted that Palestinians developed deterrence power and that Tel Aviv should think deeply and consider all aspects before waging a war or even escalating the tensions with them.
The resistance's development of this type of rockets with a range of hundreds of kilometers has created fear and terror in the occupied territories. All wars are started by the Israeli regime, but it is the Palestinian resistance groups that determine their end, and Tel Aviv agreeing to a ceasefire in the shortest possible time reflects the fact that the continuation of the war is not in the interest of the occupation regime. As Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah pointed out in his speech on Friday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu intended to restore the balance of deterrence by striking Gaza, but this regime has lost deterrence in all areas.
Gaps inside the occupied territories
Another issue that makes the Israelis fail to fight more than a couple of days is domestic conditions. In the past, the Israelis were setting aside their differences at the time of war and uniting against the Palestinians, but now conditions have changed and Tel Aviv lost its unity. Since the assumption of power by the hardliners about four months ago, opposition leaders have been arranging protests in reaction to Netanyahu cabinet’s controversial plans, something fueling political tensions and causing gaps in the Israeli society. That is why Netanyahu cannot rely on home supports to continue the war. He knows that pressures from internal front at the time of conflict with outer fronts yields nothing but loss. Though the opposition is an enemy to the Palestinians, they currently do not share common views with the government against the resistance groups and, thus, do not support the cabinet. They recently called for a truce with Gaza, saying that war does not serve Israeli interests. This stance has pushed Netanyahu in a tight spot.
Exorbitant costs of war
High costs of war with Palestinian resistance is another reason pushing Tel Aviv officials back from continuing the confrontation. Iron Dome, which is the leading protection machine for the security of the settlers, foists a heavy price on the Israeli regime. Each of its missiles costs $50,000, and with hundreds of rockets fired from Gaza every day, the Israelis have to pay tens of millions of dollars daily to protect their cities. In case of a long war, the Israeli government should pay heavy costs. Also, each David’s Sling missile costs 1$ million. The 51-day Gaza war in 2014 alone cost Israeli regime more than $2 billion.
In addition to the missiles, if the costs of operating the fighter jets are considered, it will be a huge cost. Given the critical economic conditions in the occupied territories, these costs can be prohibitive.
The much-vaunted Iron Dome has proven inefficient in recent clashes, and as the Israelis admitted, it intercepted only one-thirds of the rockets. That is why they resorted to David’s Sling, which seems to have not been successful, either.
Also, a long war has human casualties for the Israelis. Firing thousands of rockets into the occupied territories causes deaths and injuries among the settlers and this is worrying for the Israelis who try to end the war as soon as possible to avoid further casualties. From the time a rocket is fired from the Gaza Strip until it reaches Sadirut, the closest city to the enclave, there are only 20 seconds for the Israelis to save themselves, which is a short time, and if hundreds of rockets are fired at the same time, they will face serious problems seeking shelter and the human casualties will increase.
Fear of expansion of war domain
When waging a war, the Israeli officials try to limit their confrontation to a single resistance actor, namely Hamas or Islamic Jihad. In recent war, they thought that if they assassinate Islamic Jihad commanders, Hamas will not get involved and so they easily deal blows to the Islamic Jihad. But contrary to their thought, the resistance groups in Gaza are now united. Hamas officials over the past few days made it clear that they are operating in the joint resistance command center and at the time of war, lines are blurred between Hamas and Islamic Jihad. So, simultaneous confrontation of Islamic Jihad and Hamas pushes the Israelis to the wall.
Additionally, until recently, Tel Aviv was feeling threatened only from Gaza and during war, its concentration was only on Gaza, but now the West Bank is rising as a new front. West Bank-based resistance groups with partisan and martyrdom operations deal fatal blows to the Israelis. Now, the West Bank poses the biggest threat to the Israeli far-right parties as they cannot counter the West Bank groups that are growing like mushrooms.
Also, if war domain expands, southern Lebanon-based Palestinian groups are likely to get involved. Last month, they fired tens of rockets into the occupied territories. Opening various fronts causes the Israelis to lose the initiative and this is turning into a nightmare for the Netanyahu government.
A prolonged war with the resistance groups has other negative repercussions and can drive the foreign capitals and investment out of the occupied territories. After all, Jewish moguls invest wherever there is security and stability. But frequent wars have jeopardized the investment security and this is leading to fleeing of billions of dollars in foreign capital from the Israeli economy. Protests are an important factor here, too. Reports suggest that since the start of the protests in the occupied territories, over $80 billion left the Israeli economy and 255 Jewish billionaires have warned that if the hardliners insist on their judicial reforms, they will pull their capital out of Israeli regime.
Also, repeated wars with the Palestinians will intensify the process of reverse migration from the occupied territories. In the past decade, nearly 500,000 people have migrates from Israeli regime to the US and Europe, and according to Israeli media reports, 90 percent of Israelis are thinking of migration, and the continuation of insecurity will accelerate this process, and perhaps a day will come when the occupied territories will be empty of Israelis.
Disruption of normalization with Arabs
Increasing Israeli crimes in Gaza and the West Bank have caused waves of anger in the Muslim countries. Killing of the Palestinians at a time Netanyahu is seeking to revive normalization process with the Arab states can disrupt his project. In recent months, Saudi and other Arab countries have been driven angry by the Israeli actions despite their following of normalization process. Even UAE and Bahrain leaders who normalized with Tel Aviv reacted strongly to the Israeli criminal actions. These days, the Arab countries have shown that they are siding with the Palestinian groups, and the rapprochement between Hamas and Saudi Arabia in recent weeks was also in this direction, and this is a serious threat to the Israel regime. This trend suggests that with the closure of the normalization case, the noose will be tightened on Tel Aviv.
Also, confrontation of resistance groups has confused Tel Aviv officials, making them lose the initiative. They have always waged wars with the imagination that they can destroy the Palestinians in a short time, but they end up frustrated with results. Netanyahu claimed he destroyed Hamas and Islamic Jihad infrastructure, but firing hundreds of rockets in a single day proved them wrong and suggested that the Israelis have so far failed to realize their goal of destruction of the resistance. On the contrary, the more pressures from Israelis, the more power the Palestinians gain to flex their muscles to their enemy. The advancements in rocket and drone technology suggest that their enemy has lost the game.
