Alwaght- The US President began his West Asian tour on Wednesday, ending the Saudi-Israeli waiting for him. He first will have a three-day visit to Israel and then fly to Saudi Arabia. Before start of the tour, media outlets and politicians of some countries made many speculations and analyses on his stated and non-stated goals, with all having two common points: Saudi-Israeli normalization and forging a regional coalition.
Concerning the tour and its goals, Alwaght talked to Sabah Zangeneh, an Iranian expert of West Asian affairs.
Alwaght: In the first day of his visit, Biden issued a joint statement with the Israeli prime minister stressing US-Israeli security cooperation and American commitment to Tel Aviv for protection. What are the Israeli concerns and how does it influence Biden's tour?
Zangeneh: The mistake of Biden and previous American presidents, especially Donald Trump, is that they think that creating security for a part of the region, especially the Israeli regime, is realizable without respecting the security of the main people of that land, namely the Palestinians. The Palestinian conflict has not yet been resolved and millions of Palestinians have been displaced from their homes and Palestinian towns and villages are still attacked and occupied by the Israelis every day. As long as the security of the Palestinians, especially the refugees, is not provided, the security is unrealizable in the occupied territories. What the Americans are thinking about is putting the burden of the Israeli security on the Arabs and creating a specific atmosphere for Israeli dominance over the fate and security of the Arab countries. This is the American explanation of security for the region.
Alwaght: The US has been pursuing formation of a coalition against Iran, and even the very objective behind foundation of the (Persian) Gulf Cooperation Council was hostility to Iran. In recent years, they raised "Arab NATO" plans but it has gone nowhere so far. Will the rejuvenated US efforts work for Washington goals?
Zangeneh: In fact, the issue of the security of the Arab countries is an excuse to sell American weapons to the region and to try to buy superiority for the Israeli regime over the Arab countries, which will never be realized if this is the main goal of so-called coalition. Security of the Arab countries is in their own hands and realizable by creating a real mechanism for regional security via cooperation and without massive spending on Western weapons. The main goal is the security of the Israeli regime, and the claim of Iran's threats has become a threadbare excuse to sell American weapons to the Arabs and shift responsibility to them.
Alwaght: In recent days, there have been reports on possible announcement of Saudi-Israeli normalization during Biden's tour. Can we expect mentionable advancement in the normalization agenda between Riyadh and Tel Aviv during Biden's visit?
Zangeneh: Saudi Arabia proposed several solutions for the Palestinian cause and the Arab-Israeli conflict, but none of them were implemented, and the US did not actually help in their implementation. So, Saudi Arabia needs to practically determine the fate of its plans, whether it quitted them or not. The essence of its initiatives was the creation of a Palestinian state with Al-Quds (Jerusalem) as its capital. It should be seen whether the goals of these initiatives have been achieved or not. Historically and politically, Saudi Arabia will not be able to deviate from these initiatives, unless it officially declares that the Palestinian cause and Al-Quds are no longer important to it. The main goal of establishment of Organization of Islamic Cooperation, which Saudi Arabia dominates, was to help liberation of Palestine and Al-Quds. If Saudi Arabia abandons these goals, it must officially announce that this is a difficult task and it cannot conclude it. Even the Al Saud ruling family does not agree to ensuring Israel's security and concluding the normalization process without Tel Aviv paying a price in this way or withdrawing from the occupied territories, or respecting the rights of the Palestinian people, or recognizing Al-Quds as capital of state of Palestine. Therefore, Saudi Arabia in this path will have many problems internally, regionally, and internationally.
Alwaght: In recent years, Arab countries showed a willingness to reduce reliance on the US and move to closeness to Eastern powers like Russia and China. Can Biden's visit repair the lost trust of the past? For example, in Ukraine case, White House expected full Arab compliance with the anti-Russian oil sanctions. Will everything go as Washington wishes?
Zangeneh: Biden will make several demands from the Arab countries and he will put strains on them, especially Saudi Arabia, towards his goals. First, he will ask the Saudis not to work with China, and obstruct military purchases from this country, and also block Chinese involvement in Saudi arms production projects. He also wants Riyadh not to sell more oil to Beijing.
Second, he will ask the Saudis to withdraw from agreement they signed with Russia under OPEC+ and not answer the Russian demands and move contrary to Moscow policies and increase their oil output to ease the energy crisis caused by Ukraine war and deprive Russia of the benefits of this energy predicament. But this goal will not succeed because it is an irrational demand and runs counter to OPEC and OPEC+. So, the US and Europe will not get cheap energy from this lobbying.
Alwaght: Afghanistan was not mentioned as a topic in Biden's tour agenda though Afghanistan conditions, especially humanitarian, are critical. What do you think?
Zangeneh: The US has a destructive role wherever it steps in, and the negative impacts of this role are observable in humanitarian, social, and cultural matters. This US withdrew from the region without caring about the challenges it left behind. It did so in Afghanistan and a majority of Arab countries supported its role in that country. And now that the Taliban retook the rule, the weapons the Americans left behind pose a serious risk to this country with consequences also to the regional states. Not mentioning Afghanistan is because of the large scale of damages of the US created and engaging Afghanistan in the tour agenda will overshadow the whole of Biden's tour and tell the regional nations that the US is neither reliable nor much of a problem solver.
