Alwaght | News & Analysis Website

Alwaght- United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon announced on Saturday, 6 June 2015 that peace talks between warring factions of Yemen crisis would be convened in Geneva on June14. Amidst, Marie Harf, the spokesman for the US State Department announced that Washington supports efforts to resume the political negotiations led by the United Nations, and urges all Yemeni sides to participate in these talks. The spokesman of Yemen’s Ansarullah stated that Ansarullah takes up the invitation of the Secretary-General of the United Nations and would participate in Geneva talks without preconditions.

The UN has stated that Geneva talks are held to address the humanitarian issues; however, it seems that the factor effective at holding Geneva talks is the failure of military plan of Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia had promised its Western and Arab allies that within a few days it would settle the Yemen issue, but now that the war against Yemen enters its third month, not only Saudi Arabia has not won the war, but also has made way for retaliatory attacks of Yemeni troops against itself. To the extent that in recent days, Yemeni troops in some areas have penetrated a few kilometers into Saudi soil, and have seized war booty including a wide variety of tanks and armored personnel carriers. In such a situation, the Geneva meeting at least could have some benefits for Saudi Arabia and its allies, it could help to prevent more losses, and it would also provide the necessary pretext for decent withdrawal of Saudi Arabia from Yemen swamp.

With regard to this situation, Saudi Arabia have to choose one of the following two ways:

1. To continue undertaking blind military attacks until it can achieve a military victory:

If Saudi Arabia wants to leave Yemen when it has achieved a military victory, it must consider the fact that within the last two past months, Ansarullah has not used its capacity to fight back Saudi Arabia. Over the last three months, Ansarullah was mainly engaged in the fights against al-Qaeda and Mansur Hadi's forces in Yemen, and some brief border skirmishes. Ansarullah enjoys the full support of a classic army, and using its guerrilla forces, it can create a nightmare for the hired and multinational army of Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia is well aware that it will not achieve victory through military aggression. Clearly, land superiority defines the result of war, not airstrikes. Saudi Arabia has done its best, but Ansarullah has not exercised its main options yet. If Saudi Arabia launches ground attacks, given the superiority of Ansarullah land forces, Saudi Arabia will definitively be defeated.

2. To adopt a political solution:

Saudi Arabia needs Geneva conference more than any other countries, because its plan for Yemen has backfired and now Riyadh looks for a way out. The foot-dragging and stubborn refusal to Geneva peace talks is because Saudi Arabia seeks to achieve a political or military dominance before Geneva conference is held. In other words, in the days before the Geneva conference, Saudi Arabia is just mounting attacks in both political and military arenas so that its Yemeni affiliates are not empty-handed while trying to strike a deal with Ansarullah.

Nevertheless, the coalition spokesman, Ahmad al-Asiri, acknowledging the failure of Saudi Arabia to achieve its goals, stated that Ansarullah and Yemen army have fired Scud missiles to Khamis Mushait air base and are just trying to maintain such military victory so that they can have upper hand in Geneva conference. The change of regional authority (Riyadh) to the international authority (Geneva) is another victory for Ansarullah, since Saudi Arabia opposed to holding peace talks in any place other than Riyadh. In addition, the formation of Yemeni- Yemeni negotiations, supported by Ansarullah, is another success for the Movement, while Saudi Arabia views itself the guardian of Yemeni groups and has tried to guide the negotiations. That is why Saudi Arabia desperately attempts to downplay the Geneva talks, as Mansour Hadi and Bahah in their remarks stated that the Geneva conference is aimed at implementation of Security Council resolutions and Persian Gulf Initiative, and it is not aimed at finding a resolution for the current situation. Emphasis on consultative nature of talks and implementing the resolutions of the Security Council, and Persian Gulf Initiative in Geneva conference, more than anything reveals the feebleness of the Saudi-backed Yemeni officials and their fear about negotiations; as negotiation requires bargaining power and public support and these are what Saudi officials are lacking.

Therefore, Yemen crisis undoubtedly requires a political resolution, in which a humanitarian ceasefire has the first priority. Although there is little hope that warring factions in Yemen may reach a comprehensive agreement in the Geneva conference, mainly because of continued intervention of Saudi Arabia in the internal affairs of Yemen and its attempts to compensate for the military failures in the political arena, a humanitarian ceasefire, concurrent with the beginning of Ramadan, Muslims sacred month, is highly likely, perhaps this can alleviate the sufferings of the war-stricken Yemenis.

If previous Yemeni agreements are the basis of Geneva talks, then a political resolution for the crisis would be highly likely. However, none of the possible agreements would reduce the burden of Saudi Arabia in its aggression against Yemen. War crimes that Saudi Arabia has committed in Yemen are liable to prosecution; similar to war crimes of Israeli regime in Gaza War, and the passage of time does not reduce the burden of its legal responsibilities. Given the fact that Yemenis, unlike the Palestinians, have an independent state, a member of the United Nations and other regional and international organizations and institutions, Yemenis have more power and opportunity to prosecute Saudi Arabia for committing crimes against their country.