Alwaght | News & Analysis Website

Alwaght- At present, the relations between US and Russia is extremely complex. One can even say that these two countries' current relations are more complex than the Cold War era because there was a mechanism for bilateral negotiations between them in that period. In other words, the basis of relations between the two sides was fully defined and understandable during the Cold War, while at the present time there is no principle governing the relations. In addition, the intergovernmental efforts made to establish a new basis of relations have not been very successful. Accordingly, it seems that there are at least three general scenarios for the future of US-Russia relations each one of which can be very influential on the future of the international system. These scenarios are as follow:
1. Strategic partnership
Based on this scenario, the US-Russia relations will reach the best possible status. It will start with expanding economic ties between the two sides which can lead to strategic partnership in the field of major global issues. This scenario pursued by Dmitry Medvedev and Barack Obama, the presidents of Russia and US, faced many challenges and is unlikely to happen in the near future. In fact, there are so many areas of disagreement that the two sides cannot achieve a strategic partnership. The issues such as the increase in US influence in Central Asia and the Caucasus, NATO’s expansion to the East and deployment of a missile defense system in Eastern Europe are among the most important things that have caused tension between the two countries. Moreover, the Ukraine crisis increased tension between Moscow and Washington and caused a serious deterioration in relations between them.
2. A new Cold War
In this scenario, the atmosphere between the two countries become so cold and dark that will be reminiscent of the Cold War. In the late of presidency of George W. Bush, US-Russia relationship was moving toward this scenario. After escalation of the Ukraine crisis, this trend occurred in the relations between Moscow and Washington. It seems that some people in US and Russia are seeking opportunities to deteriorate the relationship between them like the Cold War era. However, it should be considered that the Cold War was based on two elements of ideological conflict and geopolitical competition while in the present condition there is no ideological conflict in US-Russia relations. However, there is a geopolitical competition between the two countries so that the Ukrainian crisis is one of its aspects. In general, we can say that a new Cold War will not occur between the two countries due to the absence of element of ideology.
3. Tactical cooperation and limited confrontation
The West has to resist against Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, while this country has violated the rule of not occupying other countries. In addition, the West cannot completely isolate Russia because they have common interests in the fields of nuclear security, non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, fighting terrorism, the Arctic and regional issues. Therefore, the lack of cooperation between US and Russia can stop or cancel solving main global issues such as non-proliferation of nuclear weapons and protection of environment. Accordingly, US and Russia will cooperate with each other in many important areas, meanwhile, they will continue their conflict especially in security issues and issues related to their sphere of influence. In fact, the relations between US and Russia will fluctuate between the two poles of tactical cooperation and limited confrontation. In this scenario, four components form the basis of US foreign policy toward Russia:
1. Russia considers the space of the former Soviet Union as a sphere of its vital interests that it is against US interests.
2. Russia tries to return to the geopolitical system of spheres of influence that was favorite system of major powers in the nineteenth century but US has a newer perception of the international system and uses the term of modern world.
3. Russia emphasizes on its security strategy based on using nuclear weapons against threats that it is counted a big obstacle to US programs.
4.  Russia’s intelligence and security activities are still against US that it can have many consequences for US military forces.
Despite these factors, it seems that US has no long-term policy toward Russia. Hence, US policy in the near future will be determined under the influence of global issues and concerns. This means that US will again need Russia to solve many of the global problems. Moreover, it should be considered that Russia and the West have long experienced crisis in bilateral relations and the relationship between them during the Cold War was more hostile than the present time.
However, for Russia the current stage of its relations with US that is based on competition is not different from the previous stage that was based on cooperation and selective neglect. Thus, Russia will continue the competition because the disagreement over NATO's contribution to the security of Europe has not been removed. US deployment of a missile defense system in Europe has angered Russia and US intends to limit Russia’s access to modern technologies. Russia believes that discrimination against its energy companies in US and EU markets has started a long time ago and is not related to the imposed sanctions due to the situation in Ukraine. US and EU supported anti-Russian regimes near its borders in the past while Russia cooperated with them about Afghanistan, Iran, Syria and North Korea and also in different fields such as business and investment, exploitation of space, combating terrorism and illicit drug trafficking. In fact, in spite of cooperation with the West in mentioned fields, Russia has always faced unfriendly and selective approach of US and some European countries.
Despite current tension in relations between Russia and the West, it seems that Russia is not seeking confrontation with the West. In fact, in spite of competition in many fields, US and Russia need each other in many areas. Therefore, it seems that the scenario of tactical cooperation and limited confrontation is still valid in US-Russia relations.