Alwaght- Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened Friday to open his country's borders and allow thousands of illegal migrants to enter Europe in violation of a deal with EU on refugees.
The Turkish leader's comments came a day after the European Parliament angered Ankara by symbolically backing a freeze of its EU accession talks. “You clamored when 50,000 refugees came to Kapikule, and started wondering what would happen if the border gates were opened,” Erdogan said in a speech on at a women’s rights conference, referring to a Bulgarian border checkpoint where refugees massed last year. “If you go any further, these border gates will be opened. Neither I nor my people will be affected by these empty threats,” he said. “Do not forget, the West needs Turkey.”
Erdogan's warning to open the border gates refers to a deal struck between the EU and Ankara in March, in which Turkey agreed to help stop the flow of refugees across its border and take back migrants rejected for asylum in Europe. Turkey agreed to the deal in exchange for billions in refugee assistance from the EU and accelerated talks on becoming a member of the bloc. It also rallied for visa-free travel to Europe's Schengen zone as part of the deal. The deal seems to have had the desired effect since according to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), just over 171,000 have crossed to Greece so far this year, much lower than the comparable figure for 2015 of almost 740,000.
Europe Responds to Erdogan’s Brinkmanship
President Erdogan’s use of brinkmanship in negotiations seems to be working as it has elicited immediate reaction from some of the continent’s leaders.
In Berlin a spokeswoman for the German foreign ministry said the EU should not freeze negotiations. “It is important that we keep talking,” said Sawsan Chebli. “It is important that we do not freeze the accession negotiations because that would only further damage the relationship between Turkey and Europe, and that would not be in the interest of Turkey or of Europe,” she added. But Austria's Foreign Minister Sebastian Kurz, who holds hardline views on Turkey, said Europe should strengthen its own borders after Erdogan's comments and "must not give into blackmail".
Can Erdogan Act on Threats
Whichever way the situation goes; Erdogan will consolidate support at home. If he lets the migrants go he will reduce the pressure on his country and if the talks with Brussels move at the desired rate, many Turks view accession to the EU as an economic opportunity and thus Erdogan will still be able to retain popularity within a large constituency. Opening the gates for refugees and thereafter deteriorated ties with Europe would harm Turkey, but it would damage Europe more. Therefore, Erdogan’s brinkmanship and Europe’s response points to Turkey’s strong leverage over the EU migrants issue. Europe is also dealing with the major resurgence of migrant boats making the dangerous Mediterranean crossing from northern Africa. Therefore, Brussels would certainly not want to upset Ankara and trigger another influx of nearly three million migrants currently in Turkey.
Challenges facing Turkey’s Accession to EU
There are many challenges in Turkey-EU accession negotiations that chief among them is Turkey's strict anti-terrorism laws, which Europe has said must be loosened for the agreement to go ahead. Ankara stated current laws were needed for Turkey’s security as it struggles with an ongoing Kurdish conflict. Erdogan has also talked about restoring the death penalty in Turkey, a move that would certainly close the door to EU membership since capital punishment is banned in the bloc. The purge which followed the failed coup on Erdogan’s government in July this year is also another source of tensions between the EU and Turkey. Brussels has raised alarm over Erdogan’s protracted crackdown in the wake of the failed coup. These challenges have meant lack of progress in the visa issue and the stalling of the accession talks stopped with Ankara blaming Brussels of failing to keep its side of the bargain. Erdogan said while Turkey itself was looking after three million refugees -- mainly 2.7 million Syrians from the war, but also Iraqis -- "you (the EU) did not fulfill your promises". He accused Brussels of failing to fulfill a promise to deliver some six billion euros ($6.3 billion) in aid for refugees. Erdogan has been using brinkmanship in international relations and is therefore set for a prolonged confrontation with the EU and it remains to be seen who will blink first between Brussels and Ankara.
