Alwaght- Last week a coalition of Iraqi forces launched operation to take back the ISIS-held city of Mosul. The operation includes the army forces, Public Mobilization Forces (PMF), the Kurdish Peshmerga forces, and forces from a number of Iraqi tribes. To minimize its tolls and slow down the advances of the Iraq’s armed forces, the ISIS terrorist group has used a set of methods, each of which is designed to address the Iraqi forces' operations. Taking a defensive position, the leaders of the terrorist group are optimistic that their measures maximize the casualties of the army and check its strength for making progresses.
What are ISIS' scenarios to avoid Mosul’s fall?
1. Suicide attacks and planting mines. The most important measure used by the terrorist groups to actualize their plans is bombing the target sites using suicide bombers. Suicide bombings and planting mines come also with the aim of creating divisions and disputes between the religious groups to put them under accusations in Iraq. One of ISIS' measures is carrying out terrorist operations in different cities and regions. ISIS majorly does so but does not take responsibility in a bid to keep the way open to accusations against the religious groups. This job majorly comes with the aim to weakening unity between different Iraqi religious and political groups for the final goal of diverting attentions from the decisive Mosul recapture assault.
2. Leaving behind scorched earth. The most important measure by the terrorists is to destroy the infrastructures in the target countries. It is unlikely that ISIS' terrorists let Mosul fall to the government forces that easily. Once they are defeated by the armed forces they will leave behind Mosul to the Iraqi people as a city with huge ruins.
3. Conducting operations across Iraq’s different regions. Just a couple of days ago– short after launching the Mosul liberation operation– ISIS carried out terror operations in Kirkuk, a province in northern Iraq with huge oil and gas reserves. The Kurds in north argue that Kirkuk belongs to Iraq’s Kurdistan region. Now that recently Peshmerga forces have made advances in Mosul operation, ISIS group is looking forward to call the Kurdish attention to Kirkuk in a bid to reduce the Peshmerga forces' operational power in Mosul. The Peshmerga forces are key party of Mosul liberating offensive and their cooperation and coordination with the central Iraqi government have so far dealt a heavy blow to the terrorists in eastern Mosul fronts.
4. Tarnishing the image of the popular forces by painting the fight as sectarian struggle. ISIS now strives after painting the current government campaign to retake Mosul as a Sunni-Shiite conflict. Actually, ISIS recognizes itself as representative of the Sunnis, and so it sees presence of the PMF in the Mosul battle as a part of a sectarian war. This strategy is planned by the terrorist group to be used to provoke sentiments of the Sunni Muslims in Iraq.
What are the aims behind these scenarios?
1. ISIS' stay in Iraq. As long as it can, the terrorist group wants to save its influence in Iraq. Using the above-mentioned scenarios and strategies, ISIS seeks getting a toehold in Iraq that helps it stay permanently in the country. It should be taken into account that ISIS' roots initially grew in Iraq, and in fact Iraq is a kind of cradle for this terrorist group. Thereby, ISIS will never want to leave Iraq forever. Perhaps it can be suggested that ISIS will acquiesce to minimum influence and presence in Iraq.
2. Showing off influence and operational power in Iraq. ISIS has accepted that sooner or later it will be forced to leave Iraq, and conducting different attacks in Iraq are last shots the terrorist group is taking. Carrying out sporadic operations, the terrorist group seeks showing off range of its operations, specifying its areas of operational influence, power, power of organization, and its capabilities to conduct sabotaging attacks.
3. Distracting the army and the popular voluntary forces from Mosul Liberation Operation. One of the tricks used by the terrorist groups is diversification of the battle fronts in the conflict. The key aim behind that is to maximize the casualties of the security forces, busying them, and creating a sense of critical conditions in different regions. ISIS is no exception, and it uses this trick to paint the conditions in northern Iraq as amounting to a security crisis to press the government forces to scale down operations in Mosul front, the key anti-terror battleground.
Therefore, it can be noted that sooner than later ISIS terrorists must leave Iraq and see their presence among people as terminated. Conducting suicide attacks and other sporadic assaults in different Iraqi regions come with the goal of showing off its power to the public opinion.
