Alwaght- 43 days after Operation Al-Aqsa Storm and the start of the new round of barbaric Israeli attacks on the Gaza Strip that have so far killed over 12,000 mostly children and women civilians and tens of thousands of others, there is no clear outlook for end of the war. Despite recalling a large number of its reserve forces, the armed-to-the-teeth Israeli military has failed to make gains in its ground offensive and lacks a strategy to move out of the quagmire as it counts the heavy costs of its campaign in the besieged enclave.
On the other hand, the Egyptian and Qatari-mediated ceasefire efforts have so far gone nowhere as due to conflicting demands of the opposite sides and given the level of devastation and death Israeli regime has so far inflicted on Gaza, working out political prospects for the two sides will be highly challenging.
To get a picture of what is going on in Gaza and also details of the claimed ceasefire agreement, Alwaght talked to Hassan Hanizadeh, an expert of West Asian affairs.
Alwaght: In recent days there have been reports of a truce between Hamas and Israeli regime, but in practice no step was taken for de-escalation. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that a temporary ceasefire is possible if all the prisoners are released, but Hamas Political Bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh has warned that Tel Aviv will never get the prisoners back unless it pays the price. What stage is the ceasefire at and how will it impact the field developments?
Hanizadeh: Despite the fact that behind the scenes the initial agreements have been reached through Qatar and Egypt mediation, the two warring sides still have preconditions that obstacle prisoner release and a truce. The United Nations recently passed a resolution that prioritized the release of civilian prisoners held by Hamas and, in return, a temporary ceasefire for sending humanitarian aid to Gaza is included. Indeed, Hamas has not accepted this resolution, because this group demands release of all Palestinian prisoners held by the occupying regime in exchange for the release of Israeli prisoners, and Israel has opposed this request.
For this reason, the situation in Gaza is highly unstable and the negotiations are far from a conclusion, and the Israeli army seeks a temporary ceasefire, but Netanyahu eyes an ultimate win to secure his own political future. So, there are differences between the army and the PM, and also Hamas conditions are rejected by Tel Aviv.
Nevertheless, Qatar and Egypt may be able to find a middle solution in the near future, but the situation in Gaza these days is catastrophic and the number of martyrs and the injured is still rising. On the other hand, the Israeli army has also suffered heavy casualties and some sources have stated 2,000 of its forces have already been killed in Gaza fighting and over 167 tanks and armored vehicles of it have been destroyed and this is painful for the Israeli army that has not seen such casualty rates in its previous wars.
Alwaght: How are the field equations now? How much has the Israeli army managed to achieve its stated goals? What have the resistance groups done to ground the enemy in Gaza? How do you see the result of the ongoing ground battle in terms of current and future conditions?
Hanizadeh: Currently, Hamas and the Islamic Jihad are holding the initiative. The Israeli army is a classic one and in a classic war it has the upper hand, but in an urban war, it performs poorly and cannot manage the war and that is why its casualties are high. Hamas and Islamic Jihad have shown themselves to be highly powerful in urban battles, and even Hamas has rejected the offer for help made by Lebanese Hezbollah and other resistance groups. Hezbollah intended to enter the war in Gaza directly, but Hamas declared that there was no need for the help of other resistance forces and that they hold the initiative in the battleground.
At present, Hamas is in a better situation, and the Israeli army has lost its breath and its forces have suffered mental and emotional erosion. Therefore, if the situation requires, the Axis of Resistance at its entirety will also take action, but this issue depends on the battlefield conditions and what side of the conflict will show stronger resistance, and it seems that Hamas is ready for a long battle.
Alwaght: Amid the continuation of clashes in Gaza, the Americans are planning for the enclave’s future and want to pave the way for its joint future control by the UN and Israel. How feasible is this plan? Can they, at all, destroy Hamas and seize Gaza control?
Hanizadeh: Hamas cannot be destroyed in any way, but the bombing of Gaza and the massacre of civilians will continue, and this is a strategy formulated by the United States and Tel Aviv’s allies to wipe this region off the map of Palestine, and if there is anything left of the people of Gaza, they go under administration of the Israeli regime and the United Nations in the future.
Tel Aviv’s aim is to cleanse Gaza of Hamas presence and to bring people under the rule of an international coalition and the Israeli regime. This plan is approved by the Westerners and can be implemented, but the Palestinian resistance to Israeli occupation will continue, and new tactics are possible. So, the future of Gaza depends on how much Hamas can resist to Israeli army. But in spite of the unceasing slaughter of the civilians, the Israeli regime cannot easily secure a victory on the ground.
Alwaght: How will raids on Gaza hospitals under the ruse of search for Hamas influence the world community and public opinion’s stances against the Israeli regime?
Hanizadeh: The world public continue their anti-Israeli rallies, but the important matter is the foreign actors. Now, some Arab countries have secret ties with the Israeli regime and even provide it with weapons. The Westerners stand with Israel and for this reason, even massive rallies unfortunately cannot stop massacring of the Gazans. The US wants to eliminate Gaza from the map and provide a sustainable security to the Israeli occupation.
Alwaght: The UN Security Council after several weeks finally passed a resolution calling for temporary cessation of fire, delivery of humanitarian aids, and release of Israeli prisoners. How will this resolution affect the clashes in Gaza? Why did the US at the end of the road agree to a resolution after several vetoes?
Hanizadeh: In the resolutions earlier drafted by Russia and China, the release of prisoners was not included and only there were calls for stop of Gaza bombardment and end of ground clashes. That was why the US and Europe came against them. Despite the American, British, and French insistence on their demands, the Security Council finally approved a resolution, a weak one indeed, prioritizing release of civilian prisoners and then stop of Israeli bombardment and delivery of aids to Gaza. However, Israeli regime has proven it does not commit to its terms.
