Alwaght- As evidenced by the developments of the past few days and acknowledged by international analysts and Israelis themselves, the rocket fire from southern Lebanon on the occupied territories unveiled a new page of the complicated military and security equations between Hezbollah and the Israeli regime, to an extent that we should talk about start of a new chapter of the Lebanese movement’s military deterrence to Tel Aviv.
After several rockets were fired on the occupied territories and injured a number of citizens, the settlers expected Netanyahu government to give a resolute response in fulfillment of saber-rattling of the government for the resistance groups in the past three months. But firing a number of mortars and rockets was all capability Netanyahu had at his disposal.
Although the Israeli officials claim that they will respond to any attacks from Lebanon, Netanyahu’s pleading demand from Hezbollah to stop the operation showed that Tel Aviv is too weak to engage in a conflict with Hezbollah. Although Hezbollah officials did not take responsibility for Thursday’s operation, it is certain that any attack from Lebanon is not carried out without Hezbollah’s coordination, and Israeli officials understand this very well.
Losing deterrence in the face of Hezbollah
Despite the fact that Netanyahu and other Israeli officials always brag about their capability to fight in several fronts, their reactions to the recent attacks from Lebanon soil indicate that the circumstances have changed now and it is the resistance groups that determine the future of regional developments.
Hezbollah and the Israeli army have been in a ceasefire situation since 2006, but during this time, the resistance movement has managed to improve its military capabilities and established military deterrence against the Israeli enemy. Currently, Hezbollah has thousands of drones and missiles, as well trained and experienced combat forces who honed their skills in Syria battles, and all can be used to target the occupied territories if the need arises.
Hezballah’s deterrent power is not a secret and the Israelis acknowledge this fact. Avigdor Lieberman, former Israeli defense minister, recently admitted that Netanyahu is still weak and that the Israeli deterrence against Hezbollah has diminished. The Times of Israel newspaper in a report cited Netanyahu as stressing to the cabinet ministers that Tel Aviv cannot be dragged into confrontation with Hamas and Hezbollah amid burgeoning internal conflicts. Tel Aviv should avoid stepping into larger-scale confrontations and conflicts and present a united front, Netanyahu further said.
Reports said that in the security meeting of the cabinet that followed the rocket fire, Chief of Staff of the Israeli Army Herzi Halrvi was against an escalation against Hezbollah and added that it was in Israel’s best interest to keep Hezbollah out of the equation, and the response should focus on Hamas. This was the reason why Israel only targeted the positions belonging to Hamas in southern Lebanon and did not dare to strike Hezbollah positions.
Such statements by senior officials in Tel Aviv show that the Israelis are far from capable of responding to Hezbollah, and Netanyahu’s claim to respond to the missile attacks of the Lebanese resistance is only for domestic consumption.
Hezbollah officials, including Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, warned Israeli government that they will respond decisively to any attack, and this has created fear among the Israelis. Israeli media and authorities admit that Sayyed Nasrallah will fulfill his promises and for this purpose they are acting warily. They know that in case of start of a new war, this time all the occupied territories will be under Hezbollah’s missile rain.
Israeli security officials have repeatedly admitted in recent years that should Israel and Hezbollah clash anew, thousands of missiles will be fired on the occupied territories every day. Actually, what has kept Tel Aviv from waging a new war on Hezbollah in the past 17 years is the deterrence the latter built against its enemy.
On the other hand, in addition to missile and drone power, Hezbollah’s forces have gained a lot of military experience in the Syrian war, which can deal fatal blows to the occupation forces in future conflicts. Israeli officials had earlier warned that they should not allow the Syrian crisis to end, because with the return of the Lebanese resistance fighters, the threats against the occupied territories will increase and in any possible conflict, the Israelis would find the conditions difficult to deal with.
The psychological impacts of Israeli weakness on army and people
The Israeli hardline cabinet’s desperation in the face of Hezbollah has psychological impacts in the occupied territories. The extreme inability of Netanyahu’s cabinet against Hezbollah as a top enemy causes the Israeli citizens to fear for the security of their lives and property, because they can no longer trust their pretentious leaders for defense.
In the past decade, hundreds of thousands of people have migrated from the occupied territories due to successive wars with the Gaza resistance groups, and this issue is alerting Tel Aviv officials. Therefore, the weakness of the government and the army in protecting the security of the occupied territories against Hezbollah will accelerate the reverse migration, at a time statistics say 90 percent of Israelis are thinking of emigrating from the occupied territories. In the past decades, Jews migrated to the occupied territories for the sake of security and the formation of a united state, and if there is no peace, they will flee back to their countries.
Also, the Jewish capitalists who invested billions of dollars in the occupied territories in the shadow of relative security and heavily-armed military will pull out their capital from the Israeli regime with emergence of signs of Tel Aviv weakness against resistance groups, on top of them Hezbollah. It is noteworthy that according to investment data, over the past three months, over $80 billion in investment fled the Israeli economy as protests unfolded, and 255 Jewish investors have also said that they will transfer tens of billions of dollars abroad if the protests continue and radicals continue to control the cabinet. Therefore, capital outflow and reverse migration from the occupied territories will accelerate the decline of the Israeli regime, and its signs have began to emerge in recent months.
Also, the Israeli admission of losing deterrence against Hezbollah unavoidably leaves negative impacts on the army forces. Israeli military commanders have so far claimed Israel to be the top military power of West Asia relying on bragging by their politicians, but now they feel weak and this can undermine the morale of the troops collectively.
The Israelis in the past waged wars because they felt invincible, but from now on, many citizens would avoid joining the military because they are disappointed about taking Hezbollah down. Over the past few weeks, many soldiers and officers rebelled against the policies of the far-right leaders and even deserted the barracks.
For the Israelis, security is a matter of life and death and is somehow existential, and if they decide that their defense and security have collapsed, they lose the motivation to serve in the army, as they would deem themselves premature losers and entry to a war with Hezbollah would lead to their annihilation.
The Israeli regime is struggling with a political crisis and a social gap, and in case of a confrontation with Hezbollah, it will move closer to the brink, and perhaps the last blow to its spent body will be dealt by resistance to make celebrating its 80th anniversary a dream.
