Alwaght- Amid a series of retaliatory attacks by Palestinian Youths attacks deep into Israeli-occupied territories, initial shock waves appear to have stuck the Israeli cabinet and a division inside the coalition government appears to bring Tel Aviv into a political chaos that can push back Tel Aviv anew into a several-month political limbo and crisis.
The Wednesday resignation of Idit Silman of Yamina party, which is one of the eight parties constituting Prime Minister Neftali Bennett’s government, brought back tumult to the Israeli politics, as the parliamentary coalition behind the government has lost its majority.
Creating a new coalition and a right-wing government without holding elections is an option that Silman has raised behind her quitting Bennett coalition.
"I will continue my efforts to persuade my friends to return home and form a right-wing government," she said in her resignation letter, adding: "I know that I am not the only one who feels this way. In this Knesset, another cabinet can be formed."
Before this government was formed in July last year, the Israeli regime experienced a two-year political crunch as a result of collapse of coalition led by Benjamin Netanyahu in April 2019. During two years, the Israelis went to the general elections four times. Finally in early July 2021, Bennett and opposition leader Netanyahu agreed under a delicate coalition to form a cabinet. Only 10 months after formation, the Israeli cabinet is teetering on the edge, risking sinking Tel Aviv into a new crisis.
Are conditions ripe for Netanyahu's comeback?
Following the resignation of religious conservative member of parliament, Bennett’s opponents, on top of them Likud and specifically Netanyahu, warmly welcomed the step.
"Idit, you're proof that what guides you is the concern for the Jewish identity of Israel, the concern for the land of Israel, and I welcome you back home to the national camp," Netanyahu said in a video recording welcoming the step.
"I call on whoever was elected with the votes of the national camp to join Idit and come back home, you'll be received with all due honour and open arms. Join us so we together put Israel back on success, security, and peace track," the former PM said.
The bombshell of Silman resignation has caused a chaos within the ruling coalition, with opposition sounding upbeat about persuading the center-right parties to quit Bennett alliance.
The current circumstances may pave the way for Netanyahu's comeback to the PM post.
Benjamin Netanyahu's party has two main potential, and one subordinate, ways to return to power, neither of which is easy, however.
The first option for Likud to return to power is to pass legislation to dissolve the Knesset and hold new early elections. To pass, the law requires the support of at least 61 of the 120 members of the Knesset.
The bill is therefore likely to need the broad support of the current opposition, including members of the joint six-member list of Arab lawmakers, and the support of some non-opposition lawmakers, such as Silman and Amichai Chikli, both of Yamina party.
If such a bill approved, Yair Lapid, the current foreign minister, would lead as a PM a transitional government and would have to arrange a general government.
The second option is for Likud to form a majority coalition in the current Knesset without resorting to elections. However, it seems to have more problems doing so than the first scenario.It has 29 seats, while its natural allies have 23, Religious Zionist Party has 7, Shas has 9, and United Torah Judaism has 7 - making a total of 52.
Even if Bennett's coalition breaks up and Silman and Chikli persuade other separatists to join them, like Interior Minister Ayelet Shaked, Netanyahu still needs more support from within the ranks of the current coalition, like the potentially dissatisfied members from 8-seat Blue and White alliance of Bani Gantz or the more right-wing New Hope party, which has 6 seats in the parliament.
The third and last step that Likud can take, which is currently unthinkable, is to prevent the approval of the annual budget, which will lead to the automatic fall of the cabinet. This option will only be possible next year.
Palestinian resistance holds the initiative and game rules
Amid crisis in the Israeli cabinet and coalition, what deserves attention is the power of the Palestinian resistance groups in the fight against Israeli occupation, regardless of whether Netanyahu comes back to power or not.
As the constant political and security crisis in the occupied territories in recent years has been largely influenced by the military and security actions of Palestinian resistance groups, the power of determining the equations has now given the Palestinians a high degree of deterrence against the Israeli aggression and occupation. This situation makes the change of figures in the Israeli governments and politics of no influence on the rapid movement toward liberation of Palestinian and its sanctities.
In this state of confusion, by ordering an assault on Jenin Refugee Camp in response to the Palestinian operations, Bennett is playing with fire and testing the short patience of the Palestinian resistance. With the fingers of resistance on triggers, the least outcome of a new missile and drone intifada from Gaza would be collapse of the shaky government of Bennett that would perhaps prompt the sixth Israeli election in less than four years.
