Alwaght- The Armenian government last week lifted a ban on imports of manufactured goods from Turkey which it initiated during the 2020 war in Nagorno-Karabakh in response to the Turkish support to the opposite side Azerbaijan.
The ban was first imposed for six months since December 31, 2020 and extended for another six months in June 2021. Yerevan said the new measure goes into effect from new year.
According to the Armenian Minister of Economy Vahan Kerobyan the ban was lifted due to its "inflationary consequences", and Turkey is expected to lift the embargo on imports from Armenia soon reciprocally. In addition, there have been reports that the Armenian and Turkish governments have decided to issue a direct Yerevan-Istanbul flight permit. Armenia's Flyone and Turkey's Pegasus airlines, both offering cheap flights, are expected to initiate flights to Yerevan and Istanbul. These measures are coming as officials from two countries are planned next month to meet and negotiate a détente hosted by Russia.
But what is driving them to normalization in the new conditions? To answer, we need to shed light on their historical relations.
Three decades of chilly relations
Of all the countries it shares borders with, Turkey has had the lowest-level relations with Armenia since its independence from the Soviet Union. However, Turkey was one of the first actors to recognize Armenia's independence on December 16, 1991 and after Soviet collapse. Although Ankara's move was welcomed by the government of Levin Ter-Petrosyan, Armenia's first president, the escalation of the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis in 1993 stirred the first differences between the two countries. In 1995, despite the resumption of direct flights between the two countries, relations were bellow ordinary diplomatic ties.
Two issues have always shaped an obstacle to normal relations between the two countries. On the one hand, Armenian political officials have always called for the Turkish government to admit the 1915 massacre of the Armenian minority in the Ottoman Empire, from whose ashes rose the modern Turkey, during First World War as genocide, but Ankara has strongly rejected the idea. On the other hand, Ankara's full and constant support for Azerbaijan in the Karabakh conflict has been a major obstacle to the establishment of full diplomatic relations between the two sides.
The combination of these factors has prevented Armenia and Turkey from establishing diplomatic relations despite the common border in the new era. However, senior diplomats of the two countries signed protocols on diplomatic relations and principles of relations in Zurich, Switzerland in 2009, but these documents were never adopted, and Armenia in 2018 declared their cancellation.
Yerevan and Istanbul on path to normalization
Government of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has announced full readiness for unconditional talks with Turkey, leaving behind several decades of diplomatic chill with Ankara. Next month, first round of talks since 2009 is set to be held in Moscow. The designation of Moscow as the host of the first round of talks is at the request of Armenia and the two sides will work for peace, said Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoglu said on Thursday.
Ruben Rubinyan, a member of the parliament is to lead the Armenian delegation to Moscow talks, informed media reports said, adding the Turkish side will send Serdar Kilic, the former embassfor to the US. Though the two sides have a desire to normalize, the extent of differences and tensions between them is such that the establishment of diplomatic relations quickly or even in the short term seems to be largely unlikely. Issues such as the recognition of the Armenian Genocide in 1915, the recognition of the Treaty of Kars, the determination of the equations for the reopening of borders and the agreement on diplomatic protocols will be among the bumps of road to normal ties.
Why are they now showing interest in normalization?
In discussing the reasons behind the show of interest in rapprochement, we need to more bring in spotlight the Armenian reasons than the Turkish ones.
Essentially, since the establishment of modern Armenia in 1991, the Turkish government has not raised any obstacles to the establishment of diplomatic relations, but it has been Armenia that has made its own tension-generating claims. In the current situation, despite problems such as the economic crisis in Turkey, the political crisis of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and Erdogan's need to enhance prestige at regional level, the issue should not be linked to the peculiar Turkish needs.
Regarding the driving force behind showing interests in normalization by the pragmatic government of PM Pashinyan, we should refer to political and economic motivations. Economically, Armenia is living critical economic conditions, with ban on imports from Turkey leaving inflationary impacts. But the important driver is a need to cut military costs made unavoidable by ongoing border tensions.
Due to the state of emergency of the war with Azerbaijan, the government of Armenia is facing many economic problems and its citizens are low in terms of public welfare as a considerable part of the GDP goes to military expenditures. With its military budget accounting for 6.5 percent of its GDP, Armenia ranks 8th worldwide among the biggest military spending states. Since 2009, Armenia approved about $1 billion or more annual budget for its military, which seems a huge amount in comparison to its total national budget.
Mobilization of economic sources to equip the military forces in the face of Azerbaijan seems to have left major negative impacts on the Armenian economy. So, PM Pashinyan is quite pragmatically seeking to cut the military spending by diffusion of tensions with Baku through normalization with Turkey. Yerevan is well aware of the scale of Ankara sway over Baku, and friendly ties with Turkey would assuage the political and military tensions with Azerbaijan if not benefit it economically.
