Alwaght- President Emmanuel Macron of France visited the three Persian Gulf Arab states of the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia on December 3 and 4. He arrived in Abu Dhabi on Friday heading a high-ranking delegation. On Saturday, he entered Qatar and then flew to Saudi Arabia. During the three-day visit, the French leader talked to leaders of the three monarchies.
The visit comes at a time when Macron's diplomatic movements in West Asia, and the Persian Gulf region specifically, have increased significantly over the past two years. For example, France's involvement in the aftermath of the Beirut port explosion on August 4 in order to play the role of a big brother and mediator, as well as his Iraq visit and presence in Baghdad security summit in late August outlined Paris' new strategy in the Persian Gulf. But what does France want from its new strategy?
US withdrawal from the region and France dream to restore its traditional place in Arab region
Undoubtedly, the most important issue in both West Asia and the Persian Gulf in the current situation is the expected withdrawal of the US. In the past few years, the strategies of Barack Obama and then Donald Trump have sounded like early warnings to Arab countries in the region that have laid all their eggs in the US support basket. But after the Biden administration took office and prioritized even in a greater deal the look to the East to contain China, Arab states have more than ever felt Washington's pullout close.
But in addition to the concerns of the Arab countries, France, realizing the vacuum to be created in the region and the urgency felt by Arab world to find a new supporter, initiated its strategy of reviving its traditional role and position in West Asia and North Africa. Indeed, in recent years France has been rapidly embroiled in wars in Africa, like in Libya, Mali, and the Central African Republic, but has recently become a diplomatic force in West Asia. Although the European power has been successful in securing its economic interests in West Asia, it has not been able to fully achieve its political goals with some hasty policies mainly against Syria and Iran. In the closing years of President François Hollande and start of Macron presidency, Macron tried to embark on new policies in the region.
In the current conditions, the main focus of Macron's policies is the restoration of the glory that President Charles de Gaulle envisioned, but there are certainly differences in Macron's tactics and some strategies. Macron examines some of the failed policies of France in the last decade, trying to reverse them by adopting multilateralism as a general and successful policy in the form of partnership with the US and the European Union members in various parts of the world, especially in West Asia.
Meanwhile, the US withdrawal from Europe and West Asia and the indifference of European countries to the unfolding changes have created a geostrategic vacuum. In fact, Paris is looking for new ways to maintain its independence in defense policy and fill the strategic vacuum created by the decline of US interest in Europe and other regions such as West Asia. Once, Macron said that regional powers know how to turn this vacuum to their advantage. With this in mind, the new tour of the region by Macron is meant to implement this strategy.
Goals behind Macron's economic cooperation and alliance-making in Arab world
Along with striving to revive its traditional position in West Asia, Paris looks to present an alternative for the outgoing US in the region mainly through military, security, and, trade pacts with Arab monarchies. During his Abu Dhabi visit, Macron inked an arms deal with Emirates that would see France supplying 80 Rafale fighter jets, and 12 Eurocoppter EC725s.
During Macron's meeting with Emir of Qatar Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, the French president discussed bilateral relations and cooperation between the two countries and ways to strengthen them in various areas, including economy, investment, defense, security, education, and development. During their visit to Saudi Arabia, Macron and the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman "stressed the importance of bilateral cooperation in the economic, military and security fields."
Aware of the Arab countries' desire to buy more arms, Macron seeks major new arteries for the French economy by attracting Arab petrodollars. Paris approach shows that human rights issues have no place in its new strategy. Cases like assassination of Jamal Khashoggi, an outspoken critic of bin Salman, in 2018 and the sale of arms by France to the UAE indicate that human rights issues would be completely off the table whenever the French interests require.
Reconciling Arab monarchies with Lebanon and Macron's already-failed show
Another Macron's goal is playing as big brother and managing the ongoing crisis between Arab monarchies, on top of them Saudi Arabia, and Lebanon. On the one hand, the French leader intends to manage Lebanon's home policy in favor of pro-French voices and on the other hand present himself as the unavoidable corridor for Lebanese relations with Persian Gulf states. Macron, for example, supported resignation of George Kurdahi– the Lebanese minister whose criticism of the Saudi war on Yemen gave Saudi Arabia the excuse to devise a crisis with Lebanon to influence the country's current political conditions– and called it a gate for mitigating the Lebanese-Saudi crisis.
At the end of his Saudi Arabia trip, Macron presented a roadmap for Saudi-Lebanese reconciliation. In fact, Macron's political gesture is an attempt to present Paris as a power swaying Arab affairs. He intends to transform France into a reliable heavyweight in the Arab world to align Arab policies with major French interests.
But the efforts by Macron to present France as the region's new rescue angel are not more than a failed show. It is no secret to anyone that France's efforts to manage the situation in Lebanon over the past two years have not only failed to stabilize the country but also exacerbated the crisis there. Also, France's presence in Syria under the guise of supporting the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces would meet its failure in the near future, mainly because the American Afghanistan withdrawal indicated that the West has no long-term stay plan and the same scenario would take place in Syria. Add to this the definite near-future full control of the whole Syrian territories by the central government that is recovering fast from the decade-long war.
In such circumstances, France would certainly be far from capable of unilateral actions in Syria, and thus a bigger defeat is expected for Paris. All field realities tell us that the French struggle for regional influence under the cover of counterterrorism, regional stability, and freedom of navigation in Persian Gulf waters practically lacks an underpinning and Paris is incapable of independent moves in the region.
