Alwaght- It is expected that the pro-regime candidates would make the absolute majority in the Egyptian parliamentary election, and there would be no more than a symbolic and ostensible opposition, with a limited influence, Social Science Professor of Cairo University, Dr. Hassan Nafaa, told Alwaght.
Nafaa, in an interview with Alwaght new website, clarified that there would be no big parliamentary alliances in the upcoming parliament, and it is to be consisted of independent elements linked in a way or another to the security forces or big tribes and families of interests in the regime.
He said that no deeply influential Islamic parties would enter the fresh parliament, because Al-Nour Party is the only Islamic party which decided to get into the parliamentary race. The professor notified that Al-Nour sees itself as part of the regime, and it is struggling to rise as a top Islamic power in the country, replacing the banned Muslim Brotherhood. Al-Nour Party is not going to win the number of the seats it won in 2012 parliamentary elections, Nafaa added.
Touching on the sponsors of country’s latest parliamentary elections, Hassan Nafaa said that money, paid by internal or external sponsors, would have huge impacts on the final results of the elections.
Commenting on the reasons behind low voter turnout in the election, Nafaa noted that a majority of the voters have a sense that all the candidates belong to a single political movement, and there is no genuine competition, and consequently the parliament would be an extension of the executive administration.
Following is the full text of Dr. Hassan Nafaa's the interview by Alwaght’s reporter about recent Egyptian parliamentary elections that is translated from Arabic into English.
Alwaght: What feature does make this election different from the preceding ones, and how is it significant?
Dr. Nafaa: The parliamentary elections in Egypt are necessary to end the third step of the road map which was included in statement read by Abdelfattah al-SISI right after removal of the former President Mohamed Morsi on July 3, 2013, and without this stage the framework of the political system which is presently ruling Egypt would not be completed. Therefore, it is difficult for the regime to go on without a legislative administration to enact rules and supervise the performance of the executive administration, which is led by the head of the government, who for the time being is heading the executive as well as the legislative administrations, an exceptionally discreditable situation. As it is obvious, the road map contained a certain order, decreeing the modification of the constitution or writing a new constitution as a first step, and holding parliamentary elections as the second step which are followed by the third step, i.e. holding presidential elections. But Egypt’s Committee of Fifty, tasked with writing the country’s constitution, put an item allowing the Interim president to modify the order, which meant holding presidential elections before parliamentary elections, if needed, and that happened. And then a new constitution was written, which was approved by the Egyptians in a public referendum, followed by the presidential elections won by al-Sisi, who nobody but a single candidate run against him, and it was Hamdeen Sabahi. The parliamentary elections were set to be held only six months after President el-Sisi took office, at the end of 2014. But, a set of factors delayed this third step of the road map for over a year, to such an extent that some even doubted that the elections would be held. However, the process of the parliamentary elections has begun, and the local voters and those living out of the country cast their votes as part of first phase. The counting is underway, and the initial results would be released next Wednesday. After a week or a bit more, the first phase’s runoff election would take place, followed by the second phase. So Egypt is not to get a parliament before the end of December 2015.
Alwaght: How big is the size of parties and blocks participating in the parliamentary election, and what are the chances of each of the pro-regime and opposition parties?
Dr. Nafaa: Different political parties and movements have boycotted the election, and they are parties mostly making up the Islamic political fractions, on top of them is Muslim Brotherhood, which is together with other allied parties like Al-Wasat Party and some other Islamic parties and fractions, considered a terrorist group by the regime. In addition, other parties out of the circle of Islamic parties have decided to boycott the elections for a set of reasons. They included the Constitution Party, founded by Mohamed ElBaradei, and April 6 Youth Movement, and some leftist fractions. Anyway, the political parties’ role would be very limited in the new parliament generally, because the number of the independent candidates is double the number of those belonging to a party. And as it is clear, the electoral system adopted for this election is a combination of closed-list system - for which 120 out of 568 seats are allocated, which means 20% of the total seats are distributed only among four electoral constituencies - and individual electoral system – for which 448 seats are allocated, meaning 80% of the total number of seats. Al-Nour is the only party which decided to take part with independent lists, and only in two electoral constituencies in which the seats have to be occupied by the closed lists. But other parties and political forces have formed electoral coalitions with other parties, movements and independent individuals. So, expectably the independent candidates would account for the majority in the upcoming parliament. Therefore, we have shed light on the quality of the candidates as well as the election’s first and second phases. Additionally, we can figure out that the competition over the seats allocated for the electoral lists perhaps would be limited between For the Love of Egypt, a coalition Naguib Sawiris played a central role in its formation, and succeeded in presenting lists in all the electoral constituencies of first and second phases, and it is led by a former army general close to the government, and the Al-Nour Party which sent only two candidates in two closed-list electoral constituencies. Therefore, this election would be a test of Al-Nour Party’s popularity, which had won over 20% of the seats in 2012 elections. It is expected that the pro-regime candidates make the overall majority, and there would be no more than a symbolic and ostensible opposition, with a limited influence.
Alwaght: Which Islamic parties are holding greater chances in this election, and what percentage do you think these parties would secure?
Dr. Nafaa: There would be no powerfully effective Islamic parties in the new parliament, and Al-Nour Party is the only Islamic party which decided to take part in the election. But all the other parties with Islamic tendencies, whether allied with Muslim Brotherhood, like Al-Wasat Party, or not allied, like Strong Egypt Party, have decided boycotting the elections because they believe that what happened in July 3, 2013 was a coup against a democratically elected and legitimate government. Therefore, all of the measures taken by the “coup government” are invalid, including the present parliamentary election, so it must be boycotted, because participation would mean recognition of the regime. Al-Nour Party, which identifies itself as part of the current regime, and is aspiring to emerge as Egypt’s top Islamic power, replacing the banned Muslim Brotherhood, finds itself in front of a severely difficult test. It is clear that Al-Nour Party is a fraction of the Salafist movement, a movement which had no political existence before Egypt’s January 25 Revolution, and at the beginning it stood against the uprising, however, it engaged into the revolution after making sure that it would succeed. After Hosni Mubarak’s removal, it decided to form a political party, and then it entered the 2012 parliamentary election, winning 20% of the seats and making a huge surprise. As I noted previously, the present elections would expose its political gravity and weight in the current time, as it would test its popular bases as a representative of Egypt’s Salafist movement. I estimate that Al-Nour Party would not win the number of the seats it won in 2012 elections, especially that there is a sense that it is infiltrated by the security authorities, and is working in coordination with some government entities.
Alwaght: Do you confirm the news that Muslim Brotherhood has taken part in the elections by nominating unknown candidates?
Dr. Nafaa: I think that this news is baseless and there have not been certain reasons so far confirming its authenticity . The electoral lists which are racing in the four constituencies the seats of which would be occupied by the closed-lists have no known Muslim Brotherhood members, and the Salafist Al-Nour Party would profit from any participation by the pro-Muslim Brotherhood movements, and consequently this party would emerge even bigger than its real size, an issue not profitable in any way for Muslim Brotherhood. It is hardly avoidable that some elements, defected or unknown, from Muslim Brotherhood run in the elections to later push the parliament towards reconciliation with the Muslim Brotherhood and arrange for the unity, and I assume it is a weak possibility, and could even be impossible.
Alwaght: What is your estimation for the upcoming parliament, and which parties would have the largest influence in the parliament?
Dr. Nafaa: There would be no large party coalitions in the coming parliament, which would majorly consist of independent candidates mostly having links to the security authorities or big tribes and families of interests in the regime. But the overall majority of the party candidates in the parliament would be members of the pro-President al-Sisi parties, such as Free Egyptians Party, the Wafd Party and other parties. And generally none of them enjoys an outright majority enabling it to take the initiative in terms of government formation.
Alwaght: What is the role of the former regime elements, businessmen and the political finance in this election?
Dr. Nafaa: It would be a seriously big role. Most of the businessmen are, in a way or another, part of a network of interests which had been managed by the former regime for its own benefits. It is true that Mubarak regime’s elements are not collected within a single party, however, they spread into a variety of old or new parties. A majority of the former regime’s outstanding figures have retired from the political activity, making way for people from the new generation. There are figures who were used by Mubarak regime as professionals, technocrats and businessmen. They now have links to the centers of influence which make up the “deep state” in the country, and they are used by the current regime. They will be in league with the present regime and at its service, though not practically engaged in an organizational body. And the political money, whether provided domestically or externally, would play a big role in determination of the election’s final results. But it would not necessarily be successful in guaranteeing an acceptable voter turnout in the election.
Alwaght: Why was the voter turnout low on first day of the elections?
Dr. Nafaa: There were a lot of reasons for low turnout on the first day. Some of them were technical and related to the electoral system which the majority of the voters do not figure out its mechanism. Some others were linked to the election preparations in which there were not enough time for campaigning, and still others have something to do with current political polarization and the majority of people’s discontent, mostly youth, with it, and the policies adopted. In my view, the political reasons’ influence has led into a low turnout on first day, and this situation could continue even to the second phase. Most of the voters have an impression that a majority of the candidates belong to a single movement, and there is no real competition. And the parliament would be an extension for the executive administration, and its runoff would not be so much influential in final results.
