Alwaght- In 1997, Turkey made its bid for membership of the European Union. The negotiations on the process of accession were started in 2005 after Ankara's bid was approved. The country since 2009 has been an official candidate for membership according to the accession process. It signed on the Customs Union Agreement as well as Free Trade Agreements with the union two years before making the formal bid. Both of the agreements stand as platform based on which the two sides’ trading takes place.
The EU has 35-point standards, all necessary to be met for the candidate to join the 28-member bloc. Turkey has so far only met a couple of these preconditions, and has called for opening new points of debate where the two could sit on the negotiating table for the process to go ahead.
But Ankara has ahead the newly-joined Eastern Europe countries which seriously came against its membership. Nearly 500 years of ruling of the Ottoman Empire over the Eastern Europe has made the region's governments as well as their people highly sensitive to the Turkish coming on board. This is beside the already-existing opposite voices rising from the founding European countries like Germany, France, Poland, and Austria.
Turkey is one of the biggest Muslim countries. According to the figures, the people of Turkey are majorly Muslim, with Sunnis accounting for the majority and the Alawites, a branch of the Shiite Muslims, accounting for the minority. Turkey is bidding for the overwhelmingly Christian EU. Experts suggest that religion is one of the key sticking points between Ankara and the European bloc and is a seemingly irremovable obstacle that keeps killing Ankara's membership dreams.
The Turkish leaders has always tried to avoid demonstration as a Muslim nation and opted secularism to be their country’s defining feature when it comes to the policy making, but this does not look quite satisfactory to the Europeans who are afraid that Turkish joining change the religious composition of the EU. The EU pressures are also prompted by the concerns about recent years’ growth of the Islam and the number of Muslims in the European countries.
Turkey has a population of over 77 million. Regardless of the religion and its impacts on Europe, the Turkish population will carry consequences to the bloc in two aspects of migration and policy once the country’s membership is approved. In terms of migration, the Turkish accession will unleash big waves of Turkish labor force to the European countries due to the facilitation provided by the Schengen Agreement which certainly is one of the leading factors encouraging the Turkish EU membership efforts. In case of the Turkish joining, the EU have to deal with a new challenge while it has been for a while debating migration and free movement of the members states’ citizens to other countries of the Union, and members are deeply divided over the issue.
Without doubt, the Turks will be tempted to seek a better living conditions and higher paying jobs in the Western European countries, preferably Germany. This desire will be even doubled if entry to other European countries is visa-free and unchecked by legal hurdles.
But the issue is even more sensitive politically as it has technical aspects. The size of each country’s population has direct relation to its voting and influence in the 28-member block. Once Turkey joins the EU, it will be the second largest country according to the population criteria. Having in mind that the number of the member states' representatives sent to the European Parliament and their voting shares are determined by the size of their population, a member Turkey alone will secure major seats and voting power that promote it as a powerful member of the EU politically.
The European Security Strategy, adopted in mid-December 2003, puts premium on the geopolitical position of the countries. The Europeans consider the West Asia (Middle East) as their neighbor, believing that if any of the countries of this region gains imbalanced, unchecked power, it will challenge the status quo and existing balance of power not only in the region but in the world. Meanwhile, the Turkish borders are hit by different crises coming out of war in its neighbors and the resulting displacement of millions of people that normally flow to its border for permission to pass towards the European countries.
The gap between the Union and Turkey is dug by a wide range of cases, including the human rights violations, Kurdish cause, 19-century Armenian Genocide, and military personnel's engagements in politics. Although over-a-decade rule of the Erdogan-led Justice and Development Party (AKP) transformed Turkey and made political changes for the best interest of democracy in the country, but the EU finds the transformation inadequate. Besides, EU sees some changes even counterproductive. For instance, Europe regards the several-time amendment of the constitution as paving the way for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to prolong his rule, beside solidifying power, a measure observed as running counter to the European values.
Turkey, after these long years of the bid, is now growing more and more disappointed with accession and is becoming less serious in pursuing its goal. Indeed, the West Asian state is turning head to strengthen power through entry in regional alliances instead of setting heart on the foreign powers. On the other side, willingness to have Turkey in is little as influential members’ reluctance is noticeable. While some members keep hope of membership alive in Turkey, others strongly raise their voices in opposition. There is a notion that the EU wants Turkey as a strategic and trade partner rather than a member.
Despite long years of enthusiastically struggling to join the club through adopting wide-ranging reforms, Turkey grows more and more reluctant to pursue accession dreams as it sees no membership in sight. This disinclination is even emboldened by last year’s 51 percent vote of the Britain in favor of exit from the bloc that many believe ushered in its current fragmentation and perhaps future collapse. Ankara is expected to further head inward to shore up its regional relations.
