Alwaght- Lack of strategic depth, building deterrence, and expanding the military capabilities are the three factors shaping the Israeli national security doctrine. Therefore, Tel Aviv tries to keep the enemy away from its territory, launch strikes in a shortest possible time if needed, and once it is subjected to an attack by the opponents it upgrades its warning and defense systems for rapid detection and response.
The operational and practical examples of this strategy and view have been witnessed during the life of the regime. The significant point, however, is that over the past decade Tel Aviv expressed intentions through the media and by some Israeli officials to launch an attack at Iran. The major job of implementation of the so-called plan lies with the Israeli air force.
The potentials of the air force, the defense systems and the possible scenario of attacks at the Iranian territories are the major points of focus of this report.
A consideration of the surrounding vicinity of the Islamic Republic of Iran can protect it against any potential threats. Tehran needs to set high on its foreign policy and national defense agenda discovering and controlling the existing threats. Having in mind that the Israeli regime is a top enemy of Iran in terms of both ideology and also the national interests, the regional and international conditions urge Tehran to earn knowledge about the military and specifically air capabilities of the regime as Tel Aviv continues aggressions against Palestinians and due to Tehran’s high sensitivity to Palestine as an Islamic state. The Islamic Republic needs to build its deterrence capabilities based on the knowledge it obtains about the Israeli military powers in a bid to remove the threats of attacks by Tel Aviv. Due to the existence of the danger, it is important to study the Israeli air force's abilities.
Israeli national security doctrine
Due to lack of strategic depth to block strikes at the major population and vital centers, the military assault plays a key role in the Israeli security strategy. Accordingly, the leading approach in the Israeli security doctrine is to build a deterrent power. It means that the enemy must be forced to quit intentions for attack by use of deterrent measures that include threatening, putting political strains, and conducting intelligence operations, otherwise, the enemy must be targeted before it strikes the Israeli territories.
The essential elements of this doctrine include:
1. Nuclear deterrence
2. Missile war plans
3. Keeping the balance in favor of Tel Aviv
4. Using invasive strategies in the war
Because of the geographical position, the Israeli military officials count on the air force as the leading striking force and the instrument to assault the targets in the enemy territory. The air force has always highlighted importance of surprise and preemptive airstrikes at the opponents. In fact, winning the upper hand in air operations is an overarching aim of the air force commanders. Lack of strategic depth pushes the air force commanders to obtain an air supremacy and at the same time develop cutting-edge air defense systems to prevent infiltration of hostile missiles and jets to the regime’s airspace. Upgrading its capacities, the air force has gained the capabilities to detect and engage the moving and stable targets. It is now able to launch long-range operations.
Israeli defense capabilities
The Israeli regime is considered as one of the world's most advanced states in terms of designing and manufacturing military facilities. It annually exports military equipment to other global countries that worth billions of dollars. China, India, and the US are the key purchasers of the military products manufactured by the Israeli defense industries.
Reportedly, the Israeli regime founded its nuclear program since the 1950s but Tel Aviv never confirmed or denied owning nuclear weapons. It actually adopts a policy of ambiguity on the case.
Despite the fact that Tel Aviv is a member of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), it so far declined to sign the NPT agreement that bans proliferation of the nuclear weapons. According to Jane's defense weekly, Tel Aviv is the world's sixth nuclear power. The weekly also adds that the Israeli regime stockpiles between 100 and 300 nuclear warheads, which means equal to Britain’s warheads. When the Iraqi war against Iran started in the early 1980s, the Israeli air force under a secret air operation codenamed Operation Opera attacked Oziraq nuclear facilities in Iraq. The operation was launched by a squadron that included 8 F-16s and 6 F-15s aiming at destroying the Iraqi nuclear sites.
Tel Aviv’s experiences and air power in threatening the regional countries
1. Surprise attacks in 1967 at the Arab armies and destroying their fighter jets and airbases, and attacking them again in 1973.
1. Striking Iraq’s Oziraq nuclear facilities in 1981.
3. Launching long-range strikes at positions of the Palestinians Liberation Organization in Tunisia from a 2,500 kilometers distance and killing thousands of Palestinian fighters.
4. Taking advantage of electronic warfare systems during air campaign in 1982 in Beqaa Valley in eastern Lebanon and destroying the Syrian jets.
5. The 33-Day War airstrikes at Lebanon
6. Airstrikes on September 6, 2007 on the Syrian Deir ez-Zor province nuclear site. The operation was codenamed Operation Orchard. Totally, Tel Aviv launched 11 airstrikes at the Syrian territory.
7. Assaulting the Sudanese territory and airspace violations in Syria, Turkey, and other countries.
The Israeli army spends the largest budget on its military forces. Its military spending touched $17.5 billion in 2015. Its military budget in 2016 saw a $1.6 billion increase compared to last year, not to mention the annual $3 billion in US military aids to Tel Aviv.
Global FirePower, an organization active in ranking world countries' armies and armed forces, has ranked the Israeli regime as 11th out of 106 most powerful countries.
Despite its small territory and population, Tel Aviv won 5 out of 8 wars with the Arab countries. However, in recent wars of 2006, 2008, and 2014 despite convenient capabilities it failed to win.
Israeli air force's major equipment
The Israeli air force contains 15 squadrons of bomber jets, 5 squadrons of electronic warfare planes, 3 squadrons of early-warning planes, 5 squadrons of attack helicopters, 4 squadrons of multi-function helicopters, and 3 squadrons of transportation helicopters. Since late 1980s up to now, the Israeli regime kept operational 19 ready-to-fly squadrons that included 12 fighter-bomber squadrons, 6 attack fighters, and 1 detection squadron.
Currently, the Israeli regime has 874 jets of all types, 540 of them are operational. It also has 315 radar, electronic warfare, heavy and light weight transportation, fuel tanks, logistics, and training planes. Totally, the Israeli regime has 850 different attack and logistic aircraft. It also has 390 attack and rescue helicopters.
Tel Aviv also has 29 signal data gathering planes from RC-12, D, and K, 3 sea scan IAI Sea Scan models, and 6 Gulfstream 550 sea patrolling planes to keep ready for detection of hostile moves.
Satellites
The intelligence agencies and other military organizations of the Israeli regime have been struggling for years to manufacture their own spy satellites. Tel Aviv believes that in the present time spying is a necessity and no instrument better than satellite can provide information from the whole world in a matter of several minutes. Presently, Tel Aviv operates a couple of optical reconnaissance satellites including the Ofeq 7, Ofeq 9, EROS-B as well as the communication satellites of Amos 1 and 2. Furthermore, in April 9, 2014 the Israelis successfully launched Ofeq 10 satellite. It is capable of providing images from objects with half a meter size, and spins around the Earth every 99 minutes and simultaneously sends data to the ground command centers.
Missiles
1. The Patriot missile defense system (PAC-3 model): it is a guided missile shield system that is able to engage ballistic missiles, Cruise missiles, and advanced planes in different weather conditions and different altitudes.
2. Arrow missile defense system: Arrow 2 radar system can detect the air targets and ground to ground missiles from 500 kilometers and engage them from a 50 to 90 kilometers distance. Furthermore, Arrow 3 missiles can detect missiles that travel 100 kilometers in the air.
3. Shavit missile: it especially designed to deliver satellites into the orbit and is from the family of Jericho missiles.
4. Iron Dome missile shield system: the system is a solution to address the small size rockets fired into the Israeli territories. Tel Aviv appropriated a $210 million budget to develop it. In 2008, the first missile of this system, called Tamir, was tested.
Drones
1. Reconnaissance drones: they normally have a camera of necessary accuracy, and a filming camera with a stable or moving lens with a particular vision angle.
2. Suicide drone: it carries a detection device and is guided using navigation systems. It finds the target and attacks it using its body and explosives. There is no expectations of return of this kind of drones.
3. Combat drones: they are designed to engage the hostile forces. They drop bombs and missiles on the opponent forces. This type of drones is larger and more expensive than normal and losing them in the operation is very costly. The important point is that drones are capable of carrying out attacks at night and day in any weather conditions because the humans are not directly involved in operations, therefore, the risks are cut down. The only limit is technical issues. The drone needs to present good performance with a consideration of the environmental conditions.
Weak spots of Israeli drones
1. Susceptibility to electronic warfare
2. Getting out of control in bad weather conditions
3. Flying out of control due to its light weight in wind and storm conditions. The command centers ordinarily fail to recover control of them.
4. Vulnerability during landing
5. Failure to detect and engage targets in roofed positions.
6. Noisiness when traveling in midair.
How to face off the Israeli drones?
1. Using manned aircraft to down the drones after detection. The Israeli drones mostly fly with between 150 and 250 k/h speed, so they can be easily chased off and shot down by manned aircraft.
2. Shooting down using unified air defense systems in case of detection.
3. Gunning them down using anti-glare heat-seeking air defenses.
4. Radio jamming the GPS system on which the drone rely for its flights.
5. Using balloons equipped with sensors and explosives in appropriate altitudes. It is notable that the stay time of the balloons in over 10,000 feet altitude is very little and so they need recharging.
6. Creating vacuum around the aircraft can result in engine jamming and turn-off.
7. Creating magnetic field in the flight environment of the unmanned aircraft is a novel way and causes malfunction of the electronic and guidance systems of the drones.
Possible scenarios of Israeli attacks at Iran
Iran is a key enemy for the Israeli regime and Tel Aviv does its best to weaken Tehran in the region and across the world. For some time it designed a plan to attack the Iranian territory but what remains now are the words and threats. Still, we can talk about a possible Israeli scenario to strike Iran's sensitive facilities. Due to the Israeli air force's capabilities and diversity of the targets any attack requires its plans and equipment.
Here we can talk about four most likely Israeli scenarios:
1. Travel of Israeli fighter jets from Jordanian and Iraqi airspace and entering the Islamic Republic's airspace to conduct airstrikes at highly sensitive military and nuclear sites.
2. Flying over Syrian airspace and entering Iran's airspace to conduct air raids at its nuclear and military sites.
3. Saudi Arabia could allow Israeli regime use of its airspace to strike Iranian sensitive positions.
4. Flying over the Red Sea and Indian Ocean and intruding Iranian airspace for strikes.
It is largely impossible for Tel Aviv to use Azerbaijan or Armenia airspaces for anti-Iranian assaults, though it can use them for spy purposes. Each of the mentioned possible scenarios requires its own tactics. Tel Aviv needs nearly 100 fighter jets to attack Iran. This is a time-taking process and can take several weeks to be fully implemented. Despite its high capacities, the Israeli air force has so far failed to realize its threats on the ground. Here we need to be aware of the Iranian military capabilities and particularly its defense lines that managed to thwart possible Israeli strikes at its territory.
In terms of foreign policy, the Israeli regime finds its existence at risk from the Iranian side. So, it feels Tehran as posing a long-term threat. Two factors are vital for Tel Aviv and intricately tied to each other: the territorial expansion and security. Territorial expansion is to provide security and security is to ensure political and economic development. It is for these two essential factors that the Israeli regime expands its political, security, military, and intelligence influence in the Islamic Republic security vicinity. Tel Aviv boosts relations with Iran's neighbors including Azerbaijan, Iraq's Kurdistan, Turkey, and others to address this need.
A key point about the Israeli regime is its investment to develop technology and research activities. Although its major scientific developments come from Western supports and cooperation, it shouldn't be disregarded that achievement of some technologies and sciences can carry their own risks. Development of its air force capabilities compared to other military sectors is the overarching triumph of Tel Aviv. Expansionist policy and the regional conditions of the regime led to boost of its aviation industries which pave the way for manufacturing home-made aircraft and air defenses.
The Israeli regime has developed four levels of ballistic air defense systems, each of which operates to detect and engage the hostile missiles in different distances. This multilayer air defense system in time of operations involves Arrow missiles to address long-range and an array of short-range ballistic threats.
In addition to anti-missile defenses the Israeli regime holds considerable capabilities for launching missile strikes. Its missiles can carry conventional and unconventional warheads. According to the technology experts, Jericho III intercontinental missile can reach Africa, Europe, and a major part of Asia.
