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Analysis

Russia and Egypt: A New Anti-American Axis

Wednesday 5 March 2014
Russia and Egypt: A New Anti-American Axis

Alwaght - A delegation headed by Field Marshal Abdel Fattah, the commander in chief, the first deputy prime minister and defense minister of Egypt traveled to Russia and visited president Vladimir Putin and defense minister, Sergei Shoigu on February 13th, described by Russian media as 2+2 talks and a sign of both sides' willingness to bolster friendly relationship. However, Sisi's trip to Moscow as his first foreign trip after Mohammed Morsi's ouster was considered important and had also important messages to western countries.

First of all, President Vladimir Putin supported Sisi in his bid for presidency. This support was declared in a condition that Sisi has not yet announced his candidacy for presidential election openly and definitely. While west has not yet supported Sisi's candidacy for presidential election, Russia's positive status towards Sisi is considerable.

The second important message of this trip is the military deal between Moscow and Cairo. Indeed, the main goal of this trip was striking a $2 billion arms deal between Russia and Egypt. Cairo and Moscow have had strategic relations, since the existence of Soviet Union and particularly in Gamal Abdel Nasser's time. About forty percents of Egypt's arsenal was stock by Russian weapons since then. While America has suspended its $1 billion military aid to Egypt, Russia and Egypt military relations can have important consequences for this region. Intensifying military and technical relations between Moscow and Cairo and the return of Russian military advisors to Cairo is not desirable for USA. Especially, if the military deal is inked between Russia and Egypt, Kremlin will probably establish a military base in Alexandria or Port Said.

The third consequence of this trip is Egypt's tendency towards Russia and China which is indicative of Egypt's turning from USA. Although USA did not take an open status against Morsi's ouster and did not call it a "coup", but has condemned Egyptian army's intervention in policy. Under USA constitutional law, administration is not authorized to assist governments who have taken power by military coup. Considering continued violence in Egypt, USA administration has suspended some of its aid to Egypt, including canceling the delivery of some F16 aircrafts & advanced military equipment and withholding hundreds of millions of dollars in cash.

Being aware of Hosni Mubarak and Mohammed Morsi's experience in relying on USA supports, General Al Sisi, undoubtedly, does not like to have only one choice i.e. USA support.  Indeed, Sisi is fully aware of his predecessors' fate that relied on US support and does not like to face the same fate. Accordingly, he takes a new approach towards East, especially when America did not give its green light to Sisi after holding constitutional referendum in Egypt.

The fourth consequence of this trip is the emergence of symptoms of divergence among US allies. Morsi's government was sponsored by Qatar. After Morsi's ouster, governments of Saudi Arabia, UAE and Kuwait announced that they will grant 12 billion dollars to Egypt's interim government. Some of this financial aid will be probably allocated for purchasing military equipment from Russia. UAE and Saudi Arabia are committed to pay significant part of military equipment's cost. It indicated that these countries were unhappy with America's policy in the Middle East. Indeed, Saudi Arabia's differences with USA about its management in the Middle East made Saudi Arabia not to be pessimistic about bolstering relationship between Russia and Egypt.

According to aforementioned consequences, and regarding this point that Egypt is one of the leading countries with a focal position in the region, any close or strategic relation between Cairo and Moscow will promote Russia's prestige & position in the Middle East and in international system, and will put America's shaky position in more risk.

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