Alwaght- When we follow the discourse of the Israeli media outlets in recent weeks regarding Lebanon, we can see a very familiar rhetoric, one the Israelis used before war on Gaza. It seems that the Israeli politicians and commentators, who are these days talking about escalation in Lebanon, hope that Gaza destruction repeats itself in Lebanon.
Also, the Israeli air attacks on Lebanon in the past weeks have killed over 2,000 Lebanese civilians and simultaneously the Israeli regime ordered evacuation of vast parts of southern Lebanon, leading to over a million displaced from their homes. These days the situation may look calm due to the 10-day ceasefire, but even after this the Israeli forces have prevented the Lebanese from returning home, a plan followed in the Palestinians in Gaza over the past three years.
Bezalel Smotrich, Israel’s finance minister, even pointed to a Hezbollah stronghold in Beirut and compared south Beirut to south Gaza, which the Israelis have nearly razed to the ground, warning: “Soon, Dahieh (southern Beirut outskirts) will look like Khan Younis.” Zvi Sukkot, a member of Netanyahu’s cabinet, held : “We must conquer territories in southern Lebanon, destroy the villages there, and annex those lands to the State of Israel.”
Meanwhile, Amit Halevi, a member of Netanyahu’s Likud party, has vowed that the Litani River, just 30 kilometers from Israel’s northern border, “must become the new yellow line of the north.” The term “yellow line” refers to the land border Israel carved out in Gaza to separate Gazans from the border zones.
Despite such threats from Israeli officials, Lebanon is no Gaza. Tel Aviv is unlikely to pull off the same destruction model in southern Lebanon.
Lebanon cannot be blockaded
There are major differences between Gaza and Lebanon. Just contrary to war in Gaza, the Israelis are not controlling the whole of Lebanon. So, they cannot blockade the population of the southern Beirut. Furthermore, the world media can enter Lebanon and bring to spotlight the Israeli crimes in southern Lebanon. From this dimension, the cost of any crimes in southern Lebanon will be high for the Israelis. It also should be taken into account that Lebanon shares borders with Syria and Jordan and this means the blockade makes no much sense, unlike in Gaza.
Israelis seeking privileges
Lebanon has a sitting government and many Arab countries support the government in Beirut. So, occupational actions in the south cannot go like in Gaza scenario since the Arab countries are strongly sensitive to the threats against Lebanon. Experts say the Israelis are hunting for leverage ahead of any talks with Lebanon, hence, they push to occupy the south. Political commentator Abed Abu Shehadeh told Al Jazeera that Israel appears to be rolling out a new strategy, not just in Lebanon but also in Syria, aimed at cementing power through territorial expansion. In practice, he added, this approach will only prevent the Israelis from successfully normalizing relations across the region.
Hezbollah’s social base
One of the the biggest obstacles ahead of implementing Gaza model in Lebanon is Hezbollah’s social base in the south. Though Israel claims it purely fights Hezbollah, it in practice targets the resistance movement's social base and a hefty chunk of Lebanon’s population directly or indirectly. Though a large part of the population have no role in these clashes, their targeting by Israel and their displacement marks a serious violation of the international laws and even mounts to crimes against humanity. But Hezbollah is not just a military force in southern Lebanon, it is an effective political actor in Lebanon. The movement holds 14 seats in the parliament for itself and has 61 seats in coalition with others. Though in 2022 it lost its parliamentary majority, it still has hundreds of thousands of votes. This social base is an inseparable part of the Lebanon’s society and cannot be ignored. Additionally, the military forces of Hezbollah will pose the biggest hurdle to Israeli military advances in the south and therefore it will be extremely difficult to implement Gaza destruction model in southern Lebanon.
