Alwaght- Armed clashes between the opponents of al-Jolani rule and the HTS groups in Syria's costal regions have winded down after two days, but the exchange of fire and partisan operations against the HTS forces continue.
According to initial information, over 1,000 people of Alawite minority were masacared over the past three days. The largest number of deaths were reported in Banyas, Jableh, Al-Tawim, Al-Mukhtariyeh, and Al-Ghabou.
Given the scale of armed attacks, the massacre of Alawites, the commission of numerous crimes, and the publication of videos of them, the trend of revolt by residents of the coastal regions against the Abu Mohammad al-Jolani's government and armed operations against the HTS elements in these areas is expected to broaden.
Alwaght has talked to West Asia affairs expert Davoud Ahmadzadeh, asking him about the aspects and roots of the revolt against the HTS and the outlook of the Syrian developments.
Alwaght: Why armed resistance did not form against the rebels when Damascus was seized in December, but now and gradually the armed confrontation of new rulers of Syria has increased?
Ahmadzadeh: There is an important issue and it is that with the foreign, especially Turkish, intervention and the push for dominance over Syria, these clashes were predictable. In the beginning, the HTS with demagoguery and expansion of its influence tried to pretend that they are seeking a united Syria, but gradually we saw them stepping up their violence against the Alawite-majority regions and Shiites and the violence has reached its peak recently.
Also, the political and ideological approach of the HTS motivated the group to take steps to consolidate power in Syria, which triggered a revolt against this group in costal areas. On the other hand, we are witnessing very extensive interventions from other parties in the region. The Israeli regime, faced with the passivity of Arab countries and the absence of a strong regional power, is seeking to occupy the southern regions of Syria. On the other hand, the Kurds, despite the PKK's announcement of reconciliation and peace with the Al-Jolani’s government and based on the order they received from their imprisoned leader Abdullah Ocalan, are still present in the northern regions of Syria and are not willing to surrender their weapons.
Alwaght: What challenges does the rise of these armed revolts pose to al-Jolani who is seeking to manage the situation to consolidate his rule?
Ahmadzadeh: It seems that due to the regional and trans-regional interventions in Syria, the future of the country will be shrouded in mystery. It should be said that the HTS has not managed to bring the Syrian minorities and religious sects to a consensus either. We witnessed the violence surging in recent days.
As mentioned, the northern regions of Syria are in the hands of the Kurds, and they also have strategic ties with the Western camp and are considered strategic allies of the United States. They hold the Syrian oil wells and demand their share of the future power in Damascus and are not willing to be under the leadership of HTS and al-Jolani. Furthermore, we are witnessing the Israeli incursion in southern Syria in order to gain more control over these areas, which has put Syria's security at serious risk. The separatist movements that have begun in Syria can, in the form of a comprehensive approach, put the future of Syria and the central government at greater risk. In any case, the lack of participation of ethnicities and tribes in the politics can turn the issue of separatism into an objective reality in Syria. In the last 50 years, the government that was in power in Syria was an authoritarian one that managed to bring all of Syria's ethnicities and minorities under its leadership despite foreign interference and tensions. Currently, in the absence of a central government, various groups are pursuing their own partisan and ethnic interests, which could worsen the situation with the intervention of regional and trans-regional players.
Alwaght: As the main backer of the HTS and new rulers of Syria, what strategy will Turkey adopt to check the crisis that is hitting its allies? Will Syria become a swamp swallowing Turkish dreams?
Ahmadzadeh: Erdogan’s dream ro fully control Syria and subject it to the Turkish power is part of his neo-Ottomanist policy in the region. He sought to make Syria the main game card in play against the rivals in the region. But recent developments and the unfolding clashes have shown that Turkey lacks the capability necessary to manage the crisis. Despite the fact that Turkish military and intelligence forces are present on the ground in Syria and actually the HTS essential relies on Turkey and alliance of Qatar, the current developments reveal the obvious vulnerability of Turkish policy to advance Ankara's regional agenda. Indeed, the current situation is also critical for Turkey itself. On the one hand, there is the issue of the conflict with the minorities which does not allow the situation to stabilize in favor of the HTS. On the other hand, we are witnessing the entry of new players in the region to have a strong presence in Syria, and in a way it shows that, given the illusions and dreams that Turkey had, the situation is not such that the Turkish government can advance its interests in Syria in a comprehensive manner and without the need for other regional powers, or have Syria under its control in all respects.
Alwaght: Is Syria drifting to another civil war at the end of the road? Essentially, what grounds are key to a new civil war that now can now be seen in Syria?
Ahmadzadeh: Concerning the possibility of Syria re-sinking into a new civil war, we should say that since its independence, this is the first time Syria is seriously facing the danger of partition because there is no powerful central government as the HTS lacks thorough control over the country and cannot impose its will over the minorities and various sects. Syria could be divided into smaller units. There are different ethnic groups such as the Kurds in the north, the Druze in the south, the Alawites on the Mediterranean coast, and the Sunnis from the north to Damascus, and the predictable situation for Syria is that each of them will pursue their own ethnic interests and unity under a central government is not their choice.
We could conspicuously see that the performance of the HTS has not been uninfluential in deterioration of the situation and deepening of the gap between various ethno-sectarian groups and central rule. This situation can stir critical conditions. We should say that the HTS cannot rule Syria with iron fist, unless each of the ethnicities secure their rights within the framework of a fair and democratic political process.
