Alwaght- The Andisheh Sazan-e-Nour Institute for Strategic Studies in Tehran hosted a meeting titled the "horizon of war in the region", focusing on the recent West Asia developments and Iran's expected response to assassination of Hamas's Ismail Haniyeh.
In the meeting, the head of the think tank Saadullah Zaree initially focused on the Israeli escalation of tensions in the region, adding that since Tel Aviv understood that it cannot succeed in Gaza war against the resistance groups and simultaneously the foreign pressures calling for end of the war began to build on the Israelis, Israeli leaders resorted to assassination of resistance leaders and commanders in the surrounding environment to turn the tide. In a short period of time, the Israelis assassinated a number of field commanders and political leaders like Hezbollah’s Fuad Shukr, Yemeni Ansarullah's Abdullah Masoud, and Hamas’s Ismail Haniyeh.
According to Mr Zaree, this policy is still on the agenda of the Israelis and they may take other measures against the Axis of Resistance and its commanders.
The US accomplice to Israeli crimes and leading the anti-resistance command center
Mr Zaree in another part of his remarks pointed to the American role in the Israeli actions, adding that the role the US and some European countries played in the recent Israeli assassinations was commendatory. Israel wanted to prove that it is superior to the Resistance camp in terms of operational capabilities, especially special operations, and what can prove that this false claim is true is the resistance's silence and decline to respond. Actually, one cannot remain silent while the other strikes. The Americans, before Tel Aviv assassinated Shukr, sent Amos Hochstein, the special representative of the American president and who is a Jew of origin and had held responsibility in Israel for many years, to Beirut and he promised to Hezbollah that Israel does not intend to attack Beirut in response to Majdal Shams incident in the occupied Gola. But one day after Hochstein visit, the Israelis attacked Beirut and martyred the leading figure of Hezbollah. Well, this shows that the Americans had a role here to prepare the ground for the assassination operation, as Hochstein like a dumb person did not react after the assassination. This is while if they were not involved in this operation, he should have protested against Israel's violation of his guarantee to Lebanon. Even the United States supported the terrorist offensive of the Israeli regime under the title of legitimate self-defense. In the following, the United States sent several messages advising against war in the region and trying to persuade Hezbollah not to respond. If the Americans are really concernsd about regional security and escalation, why did not they make these advices to Israel and before Beirut assassination operation?
The political expert added that the extensive American push to prevent Iranian response bears several points:
First point is that these efforts reveal the American role in these assassinations and that the Americans are leading the action center or the center of push against reciprocal action by the Axis of Resistance. This is in favor of Israel and against the Resistance front.
Another point is that Israel needs help and it cannot defend against response from Iran and other branches of the Axis of Resistance. It needs high-level regional and international assistance, otherwise cannot survive the consequences of its belligerent actions.
The third point is the proof of the power of the Axis of Resistance and Islamic Republic of Iran. Assigning several governments in the region to visit Iran or making consecutive phone calls to dissuade Iran from responding shows that Iran's response will be very effective, to the extent that it will change the equation to their disadvantage. If this was not the case and they thought that Iran and Hezbollah would only launch an ineffective missile attack and the matter would be over, there would be no need for US and NATO intervention. Therefore, it is clear that the world sees Iran, Hezbollah, and the Resistance front resolved in intension to give a crushing and effective response.
How will Iran react?
In another part of his remarks, Mr Zaree shed light on the Iranian options in response to the assassination of its guest.
Referring to the criminal Israeli actions against Iran in the past years, including the assassination of nuclear scientists, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh and Hassan Sayad Khodaee and sabotage targeting nuclear facilities in association with a network of mercenaries, Mr Zaree said that the Israelis with their assassination of Haniyeh have set a new record. Many say that Iran should not take action to avoid regional chaos and tensions. Has Iran sought escalation over the past 46 years? Asked Mr Zaree. He said that the Islamic Republic should punish this criminal regime in a push to protect regional and international security. So, Iran's answer to those who ask it to show tolerance is that this source of regional evil should be punished.
No regional war follows Iranian response
Mr Zaree also shed light on the situation after Iranian response, asking if the region is headed to war.
The political expert referred to the past cases of Iranian reactions to Israeli and American crimes, including downing of Global Hawk, missile attack on Ein Al-Assad in response to assassination of General Qassam Soleimani, strong response to death of several Iranian military advisors in T4 airport in Syria, or resolute attack on the occupied Shebba Farms in response to the assassination of General Mohammad Ali Allahdadi and Jihad Mughniyah, and also Operation True Promise in April in reaction to the Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, saying that these actions bear witness to the fact that Israel is incapable of waging a massive war against the Resistance camp. He said that punishment of the aggressor does not lead to war, rather it prevents its next destabilizing actions and contains its evil.
Visit of Russian National Security Council head a sign of Iranian capability to build regional military coalition
Pointing to the recent political and military moves of the West to display united ranks against Iran and Axis of Resistance, Mr Zaree reminded of the Western efforts to build united fronts in Yemen, Afghanistan, and Iraq. He said that Iran is not afraid of an alliance, Tehran does not have such a take of the international arena, and if the West can make a coalition, Tehran can make a regional and international coalition, too; a close coalition not a distant one.
The Iranian expert referred to the visit to Iran of Russian National Security Council head Sergei Shoigu, saying that there are contacts between Iran and Russia and it is said that Russian transport airplanes are flying to Iran which he cannot confirm or reject. But this small action has created an uproar in the West.
Iran will strike Israeli strengths
In his closing remarks, Mr Zaree commented on the way Axis of Resistance will respond to the Israeli regime. He said that 9 days have gone since the Israeli crime in Tehran, and although the certain time of the response is unclear, the record of responses to the Israeli criminal actions shows that the time of response is not expired. The revenge for T4 attack came after a month and for the consulate after two weeks, for example.
Mr Zaree noted that what is certain is that the Iranian response this time is fundamentally different. If the previous response has not stopped the Israeli regime, the Islamic Republic is seeking a new measure to make the enemy understand that costs of anti-Iranian actions are extremely high and it is not in its favor to enter a criminal cycle against Tehran.
Commenting on the type of the response, Mr Zaree said that the action plan is being finalized, adding that it will certainly target the Israeli strengths and will strike positions that are seen as strength for Tel Aviv. Additionally, the upcoming attack will certainly be comprehensive and launched jointly with Axis of Resistance.
