Alwaght- The Israeli movements on the border with Lebanon show a military formation for war, and possibility of war is growing bigger day by day. Meanwhile, the inflamed regional conditions after nearly 9 months of Israeli war on Gaza have increased the possibility of war not being limited within the borders of the occupied Palestinian territories.
To discuss the aspects of the possible war between Israel and Lebanon, Alwaght talked to Masoud Assadullahi, a senior West Asia and Lebanon affairs expert.
Asked how serious is Tel Aviv in its announcement of preparation for war against Hezbollah in the current conditions, Mr Assadullahi said that the Israelis have threatened Hezbollah in a variety of ways to wage a full-scale war on Lebanon for the resistance movement's support to Gaza. Inside Lebanon, there is heated debate about this issue and Hezbollah proponents are maneuvering on this issue. But the reality is that the Israeli army has run into a dead end in Gaza and after 9 months of bloodshed and devastation, it has not realized its stated goals.
Mr Assadullahi continued that in the beginning, Israel announced that it was fighting in Gaza to wipe out Hamas, but in action we saw that it not only has failed to obliterate this major resistance movement in Gaza, but also it accepted a proposal to talk for a prisoner swap. Indeed, the international pressures have mounted on the Israelis to end the genocidal war. But Netanyahu, who knows that declaring a truce will cost him dearly and is equal to the end of his political life, wants to continue this war in any way possible until the presidential election of the US, with the hope that Trump win will ease the pressure on Israel and give Netanyahu a freer hand for crimes in Gaza, and if Biden is re-elected, he then will accept the truce.
Army mulling a coup against Netanyahu
The political expert also shed light on the Israeli home conditions as a crucial factor for entry into a new war. He held that the war with Lebanon has so far continued in the form of aimless border clashes. These aimless military operations have caused gaps between Israeli politicians and the military chiefs. The army commanders criticize Netanyahu severely and accuse him of not having a clear strategy but to save his power and actually victimizing Israel for his individual interests. Recently, these gaps have broadened, to an extent that on Wednesday, Netanyahu’s wife made a surprising claim, saying that the army chiefs are plotting a coup against her husband. This is indicative of the high tensions between the two sides. Such an army is facing difficulty recruiting for Gaza war.
Assadullahi added that for nine months, a large number of Israeli army units were involved and a number of forces were discharged, which made the work more difficult. Now the Israeli army has summoned those who had been discharged again. Some committed suicide after the recall, and others are protesting and refusing to return to the military service.
In addition to this, Israel is grappling with economic problems as the reserve forces that are now serving in Gaza used to work in the economic sector. The recall of them for war has, indeed, left negative consequences to the economy, to an extent that the industrial production has dropped 20 percent and many people have lost their jobs. From another aspect, the Israeli army is facing ammunition shortage since is has carpet bombed Gaza and now it struggles with bunker buster bombs and Biden is taking advantage of this weakness as a lever against Netanyahu.
Israel incapable of a new war
The Lebanese affairs expert described the Israeli threats of war as sole psychological warfare. He added that the general conditions suggest that the Israeli regime cannot open a new front and wage a war on the powerful Hezbollah. When Gaza case is not determined yet and there is no solution in sight for the future, how can Israelis act on their threats against Lebanon and wage a war? Many agree that anti-Lebanese threats are simply psychological warfare. Even some senior Israeli commanders have said that if Gaza war ends now, the army would need two years for recovery.
Mr Assadullahi asked: How can Israel get out of the war with Hamas in an area as small as Gaza where it has failed to make gains and fight in a large area in the south of Lebanon in the face of Hezbollah, which is far more powerful than Hamas?
The political expert pointed to the Western assistance to Israel in its psychological warfare, describing it distinctive. He said that France and Germany regularly send warning messages to Hezbollah, hoping to dissuade it from continuing its pro-Gaza operations.
Mr Assadullahi referred to Hezbollah’s upper hand on the battleground, adding that to this moment, Hezbollah has not walked back, and on the contrary each time tensions with Israel escalate, the movement steps up its military operations. It is highly unlikely that such a war will break out. Still, Hezbollah is prepared for this scenario, which is unlikely. It depends on how the attack would be. Does Israel want to enter Lebanon by land like in the 33-day war, which is very unlikely because it will suffer heavy losses in this case?
Third scenario
Another scenario, according to Assadullahi, is Gaza-style heavy bombardment. This is an extremely slim possibility because Hezbollah's missile and drone power is stronger than Hamas’s and can reach all points of the occupied territories. So, this war will not be one-sided. If Israel starts devastation, Hezbollah is capable of dealing painful blows. There is a third scenario and it is that Israel begins assassinating Hezbollah leaders. Recently, a number of Hezbollah’s old commanders have been assassinated. The war we hear about may actually be expansion of this war of assassination. Hezbollah each time responds strongly, however. After assassination of senior commander Abu Talib, we witnessed Hezbollah to strike back with over 200 missiles and drones, which was unprecedented in terms of numbers.
