Alwaght- Nearly Two years after Taliban takeover of power, Afghanistan’s security and political crisis makes a serious challenge to the neighbors. Regional countries, which have so far held several meetings discussing the developments in the Central Asian country, again held a new gathering hosted by Uzbekistan to discuss a possible way out of the crisis.
In this connection, fourth meeting of foreign ministers of Afghanistan neighbors was held on Thursday in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. Foreign ministers and representatives from China, Russia, Iran, Pakistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan joined the meeting. Zamir Kabulov, the Russian presidential envoy to Afghanistan, had said that the important events of Afghanistan will be discussed in this meeting. Afghanistan’s security and political issues have been top on agenda of discussions in previous meetings.
In the past 20 months, in addition foreign ministerial summits, several meetings bringing together the envoys of these countries to Afghanistan have been held. These meetings are held as the security and economic situation in Afghanistan are worsening, and since the interim government of the Taliban assumed the power, the living conditions have worsened, making regional and international cooperation necessary to settle the predicament the Afghans grappling with.
Taliban absent, again
Like in other summits, in Samarkand summit there was no representative from the Taliban, something drawing Kabul reaction. The Taliban argue that they should be invited to any meeting having Afghanistan as an agenda so that other countries hear the views of the group. But the main obstacle to presence of the Taliban representatives is its rule not being recognized.
The neighboring countries want to improve the situation in Afghanistan while they are not interested to allow the representative of the Kabul government to attend their meetings. Although the interim government has not been recognized by the international community, it has political power in Afghanistan completely in its hands, and if Afghanistan’s political, security and economic problems are to be solved, this must take place with cooperation of the Taliban government. After all, the Taliban must implement the plans proposed by others, and if the countries do not invite it, this group may not meet their demands out of stubbornness.
All countries tie recognition of the Taliban interim government to its being inclusive, but nearly two years after the takeover, the group has made no progress to meet this demand arguing that the present government is an inclusive one accommodating all Afghan sects. However, what is certain is that the structure of the government is a makeup of the groups that over the past 20 years have fought the American occupation and central government beside the main body of the Taliban and assumed part of power after seizure of Kabul in August 2021.
On the other hand, insecurity in Afghanistan is an important issue for the countries of the region, which have asked the Taliban government to cooperate in this regard. Although the Taliban claim that they have been able to establish complete security throughout Afghanistan and bring the terrorist groups under control, the large-scale attacks carried out by ISIS in different parts of the country in the past year show that the terrorists are still running rampant in Afghanistan, and if the terrorist operations are stepped up, they will pose a serious threat to the neighboring countries as well. Given the reports that the US is focused on strengthening ISIS terrorist group in Afghanistan, insecurity will affect the borders of Iran and Central Asia, and these countries will face a new crisis.
Afghan migrants are another worrisome issue for the neighboring countries that push for Taliban’s cooperation in this area. Several million Afghan nationals are scattered in Iran, Pakistan and Central Asian republics, and meetings were held in Tehran about this issue, but these efforts are far from enough and could not fully solve the migration crisis. Even though 800,000 Afghan migrants returned home from Iran over the past year, according to reports, hundreds cross the border into Iran illegally every day as the economic crisis bites, and somehow the vicious cycle continues to repeat itself. This challenge shows that the Taliban, contrary to the promises it made, has not been able to provide the conditions for the return of the migrants.
Given the complicated security circumstances, growing terrorist activities in Afghanistan, and also drugs production and smuggling, regional coordination and common efforts by regional states are crucial to fight these challenges. Actually, settling all these crises is possible in association with Afghanistan government and the countries should separate political from security and economic issues.
Constant but unfruitful meetings on Afghanistan problems
Though several meetings have been held on Afghanistan internal issues, none have made special difference on the ground. Although Afghanistan’s neighboring countries share views on resolving the country’s crisis due to their common concerns, these actors have not taken a common practical action that promises a settlement to the challenges of the country. The regional meetings can be hoped to succeed only if they lay a practical action plan to overcome the problems and challenges, and just holding meetings and taking photos will not solve the problems of Afghans.
Iran, the country with biggest concerns from Afghanistan, has come up with the reality that if it intends to settle the security challenges, it needs the Taliban government’s cooperation. This is the driver behind recent handover of Afghanistan embassy in Tehran to the Taliban to help settle the migration, drugs smuggling, and terrorism cases. To this end, the Islamic Republic has even boosted economic ties to Afghanistan and this partnership is set to expand further. Tehran has shown that if the Taliban government shows a goodwill, it is ready to help solve the problems of Afghanistan. Iran is even trying to teach Taliban leaders how to govern by obliging the Taliban government to commit to past political agreements and border relations and water share, because a secure Afghanistan serves Iranian interests more than an insecure one on the country’s eastern borders.
Despite practical actions by Iran, regional countries have not taken such measures, and as long as no political interactions are established with the Taliban, no solutions for other issues are thinkable. An example in this regard is Taliban’s dispute with Iran over Helmand River water share. After the progress in the two sides’ diplomatic relations, the Taliban began to cooperate with Tehran on the case. Thus, if other countries follow in Iran’s footsteps, there can be a promise of solution of part of Afghanistan security and economic challenges.
Despite the fact that the meetings of Afghanistan neighbors have so far yielded no tangible results, the advantage of these diplomatic movements is that the initiative to settle Afghanistan crisis will be limited in the hands of the regional powers and this, in part, eliminates the grounds for intervention of foreign powers in the Muslim countries’ affairs. Therefore, regional cooperation and neighboring diplomacy are currently the most basic ways to overcome the present crises in Afghanistan.
In general, while the Taliban has so far failed to meet the demands of international community for formation of a comprehensive and inclusive government, Afghanistan’s economic and security circumstances require global cooperation to settle. The West, led by the US, have demonstrated that critical conditions in Afghanistan do not matter for it and freezing of $7 billion in Afghanistan assets in the Western banks bears witness to this reality. So, there should be no counting on the help from the US and its allies who are thousands of kilometers away from Afghanistan. The UN, on the other hand, except for providing some humanitarian aids, has not taken effective measures for Afghanistan under the influence of the US policies. The remaining parties for help are the regional states, which are top to suffer from spillover of insecurity, and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan that should bolster the cooperation to save the country from the situation it is struggling in. This is crucial because ongoing crises would cause further insecurity and lead to influxes of migration not in interest of the neighboring countries.
