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Analysis

Israeli Regime’s Collapse in 25 Years: How Rational is it?

Friday 16 December 2016
Israeli Regime’s Collapse in 25 Years: How Rational is it?

Alwaght- Fighting the “usurper Zionist regime” was a key phrase of the most important sentences of Iran's Leader Sayed Ali Khamenei in his meetings with people in 2013, 2014, and 2015. In 2013, people highlighted these words of the Leader: “If they (the Israeli officials) make any mistake (of attacking us), we will raze Tel Aviv and Haifa to the ground.”

“People are fond of fighting the Zionists” and “the Israeli regime will disappear within 25 years.” These were the two sentences picked as the most remembered words of the Leader respectively in 2013 and 2014.

On Wednesday, December 14, the Iranian leader during his reception of the Ramezan Abdullah, the head of the Islamic Jihad Movement, raised the issue of collapse of the Israeli regime in 25 years, saying that “as I said before, on the condition of comprehensive and united fighting of the Palestinians and Muslims, the Zionist regime will not exist in 25 years.

Meanwhile, some cannot make up their mind if the words about non-existence of the Israeli regime in 25 years are simply specific rhetoric or a strategic matter. Pundits who have ideas about this issue fall into three categories.

1. Some believe that this prediction is not more than a slogan in the middle of an active battlefield in the West Asia region. They argue that Iran's leader has exactly used 25 years in response to a claim by the Israelis who said that after the nuclear negotiations and deal with Tehran, Tel Aviv can feel relaxed about threats coming from Iran for 25 years.

Sayed Ali Khamenei on September 9, 2015 said: “let me have some words about the Zionists. I heard that following conclusion of the nuclear negotiations, some Zionists in the occupied Palestine said that with these talks they can feel free from Iran concerns for 25 years. I must tell them in response that first of all they will not see the 25 years. By God's will and his support, there will be no such thing as the Israeli regime in 25 years. Second, even in the current time, the epic and jihadi Islamic morale will not allow the Zionists to rest, even for a moment. They must know this. The nations have awakened, they recognize their enemy. The governments and the propaganda machines want to replace the enemy with the friend but they will fail. The nations, especially the regional nations, the Muslim nations, are watchful. They know that.”

The first category suggests that if the Israeli leaders had used 20 or 30 years instead of 25 years, Iran's Leader would have used the same number.

2. The second category argues that setting a time of 25 years for end of the Israeli regime derives from a deep-rooted strategy, and that Iran's leader has made the remarks based on this strategy. To put it differently, these type of analysts believe that this “political prediction” is a fruit of a major strategy of the Islamic Republic of Iran in its open fighting of the Israeli government, and is by no means something new.

This category of experts has presented some reasons as proofs that the Leader’s prediction will come true, among them we can refer to the social-ethnic gaps, secular-religious gaps, reverse immigration, and the security-military challenges Tel Aviv is grappling with. They also support their claims by predictions made by the global research centers and experts about destabilization of the Israeli regime in 20 to 30 years. For example, Henry Kissinger, the prominent US political theorist who himself is a hardline Jew, has said in his book World Order that it is impossible for the Israeli regime to continue to exist, and that it is likely to collapse until 2025. This makes their claims well-supported.

All in all, the second category argues that disappearance of the Israeli regime is based on concrete realities, supporting its argument with military, security, ethnic, regional, and political factors.

3. The third category suggests that in the beginning, it was a slogan amid regional conflict; however, it gradually turned into a “certain goal.”

Like the first category, these experts note that if the Israeli leaders had used such other numbers as 15 or 30 years, the Leader would have exactly used the same numbers for the time of collapse of the Israeli regime. However, they believe that as the time went on, it became an absolute objective, pushing the revolutionaries of the region to persuade the public that it was true that Tel Aviv government will disappear in 25 years.

The third category analysts think that on the strength of some factors some members of the Axis of Resistance deemed destruction of the Israeli regime in 25 years as a certain and viable reality. They even set up countdown clocks as a symbolic move to show the certainty of the event.

Beside these propagandistic moves, some works have been done in practice for this final end. For example, the ballistic missiles of the Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) carried the sentence” Israel must be wiped off  the face  of the earth”, referring to a certain aim of the Islamic Republic in 25 years through fighting Tel Aviv.

On the other side, what substantiates the claims of analysts of the third category is the heavy wave of negative propaganda launched by the foreign media and their supporters inside Iran against the Leader’s remarks. They call them adventurous, interventionist, provocative, destabilizing, aggressive, and working against the nuclear deal with the world powers. This media propaganda raised a reaction from revolutionary camp that supports the Iranian leader's remarks about demise of the Israeli regime. This support is the main reason for highlighting this sentence of the Leader as the most important word of 2015 among his other words. Additionally, the Israeli threats in the region have more than ever provoked Iran's anti-Israeli and anti-American nature.

All the above-mentioned issues accelerated the transition time from the rhetoric to goal, making it reach its end soon, and the disappearance of the Israeli regime in 25 years turned into a demand and a certain objective in the pro-Palestinian camp. 

The experts in the third category say that it is for this exact reason that the Iranian leader in his meeting with chief of Islamic Movement repeated his last year's words. He said this is possible on the condition of comprehensive and united fighting of the Palestinians and Muslims against the Israelis.

Reiteration of collapse of the Israeli government in 25 years by Iran's Leader after more than a year since he made the prediction can highlight a truth: the Leader does not focus on the exact 25 five years, rather he emphasizes on the unity of the Muslim world against the Israeli regime; otherwise, he should have talked about the remaining 24 year and not 25 years.

Raising the issue more than being a promise is a call for the Muslim world to come to its senses and not forget the Palestinian cause. In other words, he in the eve of the “Unity Week” called on the Muslim world to show the maximum unity in the face of the Israeli regime. If this happens, certainly the Israeli collapse will be prompted.

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Israeli Regie Leader Iran Collapse Conditions Plaestine 25 Years

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