Alwaght- Israel Defense Forces (IDF) understands that compared to 2006, the next battle with Hezbollah will be much more difficult. This was the conclusion gets to in a report published on “Walla” Zionist website.
The report is a long one that comes in a series of reports that have been written by the military affairs analyst “Amir Bohbot”, in the context of Hezbollah's military and security threat for Israel entity and how to counter it. The report was based on sources from Zionist intelligence and military top officials. The reporter claims that’s these resources follow up Hezbollah and the improvement of his fighting capabilities, and monitor the stages of change that took place since the war in 2006, till it reaches a level it is not possible anymore to describe Hezbollah as a mere military fighting organization rather it is a combatant entity with the potential and capacity of regular armies.
According to testimonies of senior officers in the Israeli army, the military and security institutions have placed the upcoming war on the top of their priority agenda, the army has benefited from past wars and trainings to face the Hezbollah in the upcoming war. But the IDF and its administration recognize that Hezbollah is not a mere terroristic group. Even the former head of Military Intelligence Division, the current commander of the northern region, Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavi, removed from his wordlist the description of Hezbollah as a terrorist organization, and now (as professional expressions) describes it as army like organization. The report, for the first time, stresses through his official sources namely senior officer in the IDF army that Hezbollah has more than one hundred thousand missiles that pose a threat to the Israel entity, Including missiles carrying warheads weighing half a ton of explosive materials, in addition to other missiles weighing up to 900 kg.
Since the war in 2006, Hezbollah has concentrated his effort on renovating his military capabilities, and the recruitment of sophisticated means of combat; weaponry that will be lethal in the battle of “Judgment Day” with the Zionist Regime. Besides is a combatant infrastructure, among its bases is a network of tunnels that is now deployed in more than 160 villages in southern Lebanon. This network of tunnels has practically changed these villages into a huge rocket launcher.
According to Israeli veterans’ estimate, Hezbollah is currently arming more than 15 thousand regular fighters, in addition to the reserve, who have been brought up in the last few years based on a fighting doctrine that aims at breaking the Israeli army's in the land, marine and air defenses. In addition to cyber wars that Israeli intelligence services do not know its extent, effectiveness and the level reached that Hezbollah has reached in this field. In addition, the combat doctrine includes «breaking the outweigh of the Israeli Air Force through targeting the Israeli home front in order to create a war renegade stressful environment which will have an impact on decision makers in Israel entity». According to military sources, «Hezbollah has succeeded in building his own infiltrated internal communication system, which is used to convey information, not to mention a sophisticated system for collecting information».
The report stated that the Hezbollah had gained a rich combat experience, due to fighting in Syria along with the Syrian army. According to sources in the Northern region command, the future war with the Zionist regime remained on the top of his priorities, which prompted him to harness its resources to build the power and get ready for a broad range response in case the confrontation took place again.
Rocket threat
According to IDF estimates, Hezbollah's strength lies in the number of missiles it has and the missile with curved trajectory. Where currently Hezbollah has about 700 long-range missiles, 5500 medium-range missiles, and more than 100000 short-range missiles. The IDF estimates that in case war happened each day of the war Hezbollah will be able to launch 1000 short-range rockets that reach up to 24 km, and 50 rockets for a range of up to 250 km, in addition to 10 long-range missiles that reach up to Dimona.
According to the report, Hezbollah's goal is to use these missiles to cause chaos in the Israeli entity, along with massive damage and very large numbers of casualties. In addition to strikes targeting settlements along the Palestinian Lebanese borders, what will pay a wide population of settlers to escape. Not to mention striking sensitive and strategic installations namely Haifa’s refineries and facilities, along with targeting military bases and military control and command units, in addition to energy infrastructure facilities (electricity and water), down to Ben Gurion airport and harbors distributed along the Israeli entity beaches.
The specialist in the balance of armament in the Middle East at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, Jephthah Shabbir points to the point that: «There is a number of threats that raise concerns: such as the massive number of rockets that can be launched to undermine the effectiveness of the Iron Dome system. There is also the particular concern of medium-range missiles, as we do not have any effective means to intercept it.»
Land threat
Concerning the land fighting capabilities of Hezbollah, the report stresses that thousands of regular fighters lie in the ranks of Hezbollah, as well as a large number of reserve fighters. Most of the fighters serve in centers and locations localized on the front edge against the border with occupied Palestinian territories. Some of them are specialized in launching anti-tank missiles, and others are specialized in guerrilla wars and territorial defense. Hezbollah also has a military unit from elite fighters for special missions, which supposedly Nasrallah will use to implement his threats to invade and occupy areas in Israeli entity. However, in terms of vocational and professional level Hezbollah fighters are characterized by being very meticulously crafted, and are distributed in two categories: the first are fighters and units for defending areas, while the second are fighters and units to carry out attacks and ground fighting maneuvers.
IDF noticed a significant improvement in the performance of Hezbollah intelligence, compared to what it was in the war in 2006, where Hezbollah has deployed monitoring systems along the northern border. Hezbollah now uses sophisticated technology to gather information, and they say in the army that Hezbollah used such technology in his last operation in Shebaa Farms, last January, which enabled him to diagnose the nature of Givati Brigade’s activity at that time. Add to that Hezbollah exploits clients in the Israeli entity to provide him with intelligence information. In recent years, Israeli security forces arrested a number of Israelis who communicated with Hezbollah, or with agencies working secretly for Hezbollah’s advantage.
The report pointed to the other field that robs the sleep from Kochavi’s eyes are the tunnels. Although the IDF works strenuously to detect such threats but so far it did not prove the existence of any tunnels on the border, but in the IDF they do not rule out this possibility. Hezbollah might have dug tunnels to move his fighters into the Israeli entity, which he may intentionally use in the next war.
Aerial capabilities
Hezbollah studied the war in 2006 in a professional manner, and realized that the Israeli Air Force had almost the complete freedom of action in the Lebanese airspace, and recognized this fact as one of his most important weaknesses during the confrontation with the Zionist regime. This obliged his planners to supply the means of fighting Israeli Air Forces. Among this air defense equipment are American made missile «Stinger», from unknown sources, in addition to the «Strela» rockets and «Igla» missiles, all are rocket fired from the shoulder, and can pose a threat to Israeli military aircraft, specifically for «Sa'ar» helicopters delegated to transfer the injured and to perform landings in wars.
Whilst Jephthah Shabbir assures that the SA-18 system supposedly threatens the Zionist Air Force, senior Israeli security source draws attention to the point that Hezbollah have been working for years to acquire sophisticated air defense systems available with the Syrian army. According to the source, Russian provided the Syrians with air defense systems namely the type SA-17, which is capable of confronting with a very wide range of weapons held by Israel warplanes, mobile missiles, and helicopters. The source further adds that the working hypothesis they have is that all the weapons in Syria has already moved to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
According to IDF sources, Hezbollah currently owns more than 150 unmanned aerial vehicles, part of which was devoted to intelligence gathering, and the other part is devoted to carry out attacks.
Marine threat
During the war in 2006, Hezbollah announced practically that he has a nautical rocket from the «C 802» style, a Chinese made rocket, which was about to drown a «Sa'ar 5» model of the Israeli missile ships. The IDF estimates that Hezbollah has more surface to sea missiles, among which is the Russian missile «Yakhont», or as it named in Russian «Bastion» the mobile coastal defense missile system. If the rocket hits a merchant ship offshore heading towards Israeli entity, it would be closing the Israeli maritime domain fully, knowing that the working assumption among the IDF, that this supersonic missile is already between Hezbollah’s hands in Lebanon. The IDF estimates that Hezbollah possesses a «model of the nautical missile Fatih 110», in addition to the unmanned remotely controlled means of fighting, including boats and boats loaded with explosives (suicidal). A senior officer in the IDF broached what he called “Marine Tunnels”. He said that the impendence that threaten us in land is present also in the sea, namely in the Marine tunnels, we can see a threat similar to the Iranian “Squadron” style, which launches fast, small vehicles towards navigational means affiliated to the Israeli Air Force. Shabbir also confirmed this where he said: “The working assumption in the Israeli entity is that Hezbollah is able to adopt the Iranian doctrine, which includes a large number of small and rapid means of navigation, which pounce on big navigational means in order to drown it.”
At the end of the report, the writer confirms that Israel is well aware that the Israeli deterrence against Hezbollah needs to be updated from time to time, especially when the tensions between the two happens, and this is the reason behind when western media uncovers information regarding assassination of senior Hezbollah leaders like the assassination of Imad Moughniyeh in 2008.
Amir Bohbot, the military analyst of the website, confirms that the Zionist administration when it assassinated Imad Moughniyeh expected that Hezbollah will take a long time to treat his wounds, but Hezbollah attitude did not meet their expectations and continued enhancing his power backed by Islamic Republic of Iran and Syria. According to a senior officer in the IDF: “We are talking about a very powerful organization. Even if a person effective as Moughniyeh was assassinated, but they know what to do, and continue the path forward to achieve their goals.”
