Alwaght- While the Russian special operation in Ukraine was expected to break the ice between Turkey and the NATO, a new Turkish demand for the Russian S-400 air defense systems seem to have ruined all the expectations. Recently, the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan during a phone conversation with the Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin said the demand for more of these systems was still in place. The same comment had been made a few days earlier by Ismail Demir, the head of the Turkish defense industries.
Such an approach shatters the optimism about Turkish-Western reunion, indicating that despite all of its cooperation with the anti-Russian Western camp, Ankara pursues its own strategy.
Here is a question: Why is Erdogan pushing to get a second batch of the S-400s despite the existing sensitivities?
Ukraine crisis and its lessons for Ankara
The Ukrainian crisis and the way of Western dealing with it carries many lessons for the Turkish officials in their analysis of the future of their alliance with the West. They obviously saw how the West abandoned Ukraine at a moment of truth created by the Russian military action. Turkey has also observed the ineffectiveness of Ukraine's missile defense systems in the face of the Russian attacks, believing that in the event of a security threat against the country, Westerners will react far more passively than they would in support of Ukraine. Erdogan thinks that they would treat the Muslim Turkey even more catastrophically now that the Western countries treated the Christian Ukraine in this way. Frustrated with the West and learning from Kiev's fate, Erdogan seeks to strengthen the missile defense capability by a second purchase of S-400 batteries.
Even more, the air force updating to maintain the balance of power with the neighbors is another showcase of the Turkish frustration with the West. In recent years, the Americans and Europeans by selling Greece F-16 Block 70 and 80 fighter jets, Dassault Rafale jets, and Meteor air-to-air missiles gave Turkey reasons to be worried about disrupted balance. In reaction to the sales, Ankara leaders requested F-16 Block 70 and 80 fighter jets and updating its Block 70 aircraft, only to meet negative response from the Americans. The outcome was an effort to procure Russian SU-57 stealth jets. Generally speaking, the distrust between the West and Ankara has increased considerably, motivating the country to design independent military improvement programs.
Afraid of Russian revenge, Erdogan eyes Putin appeasement
NATO's opposition to interaction with Turkey is another reason for the Turkish leader to place an order for a second series of S-400 systems. Since the very first days of the Russian military operation in Ukraine, Western and Ukrainian leaders called on the Turkish government to limit the access of the Russian navy to the Black Sea, which received an affirmative response from Ankara a few days later. The Turkish government in late February announced that it banned Russian warships from accessing the Black Sea through the Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits.
Although the decision was met with skepticism, with many observers calling it a violation of the Montreux Convention, which applies to the Bosphorus and Dardanelles, the move stirred Putin outrage. Although Erdogan went on to try to strike a balance between Russia and Ukraine in the context of the war through a tripartite meeting in Istanbul, all evidence suggests that the initiative was insufficient to curb Moscow's anger.
Actually, the Turkish anti-Russian actions in Ukraine crisis have strengthened the possibility of Moscow retaliation against Ankara once Russia is free from pressures on its eastern borders.
Afraid of prospects of Russian revenge, Erdogan has been fast to appease Putin. He recently talked to his Russian counterpart twice. On April 26, he expressed serious will to settle the crisis between Russia and Ukraine. On April 29, he raised S-400 purchase. He even proposed practical steps by Ankara to end the war via mediation.
In general, Erdogan and members of ruling Justice and Development Party are severely worried that with Ukraine crisis relaxation, Moscow would embark on revenge on Ankara in Syria and other regional cases.
