Alwaght- While the Iraqi High Independent Electoral Commission (HIEC) released the initial results a day after the October 10 general elections and the political parties and coalitions went divided into supporters and opponents of the outcome, the final results are very likely going to maintain the initial figures perhaps by some minimal differences. In other words, only a few seats may be added to the number of seats of one faction and a few seats to another coalition or party.
The composition of the winning parties sends a clear message to the politics and governance in Iraq and for foreign actors. A close look at the victorious coalitions and their stances makes it crystal clear that the US as a foreign player in Iraq is the main loser of the vote.
The composition of the winners and the clear message for immediate US withdrawal
Here is a list of the winners:
1. Sadrist Movement led by Muqtada al-Sadr: 70 seats
2. State of Law Coalition led by former PM Nouri al-Maliki: 40 seats
3. Progress Coalition led by Parliament speaker Mohammad al-Halbousi:38
4. Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) led by former Kurdish President Masoud Barzani:34 seats
5. Fatah Colaition led by Hadi al-Amiri: 20 seats
6. Kurdistan Coalition led by Qubad Talabani: 17 seats
7. Resolution Coalition led by the Sunni businessman Khamis Khanjar: 14 seats.
8. Emtidad Coalition: 12
9. New Generation Party led by Shasawar Abdulwahid: 9 seats
10. National Treaty led by Falih al-Fayadh: 5 seats
11. State Forces Coalition: 3 seats
12. The independents: 20 seats.
Although the current results can possibly undergo minimal changes, in general, the Sadrist Movement can be considered the largest coalition among the Shiites in the future Iraqi parliament. Also, the State of Law Coalition of al-Maliki, also Shiite, will be the second largest one, followed by the Halbousi, Barzani, and al-Amiri-led coalitions.
The makeup of the new parliament has a message to send: The majority is made up of the opponents to the US and its military presence in Iraq. Al-Sadr, al-Maliki, al-Amiri, many independents, and even some Sunni parties have several times expressed their opposition to the US military stay in the country. Having in mind that no coalition has won an outright majority, namely 165+1, all will play a major role in picking the heads of the three powers.
Al-Sadr’s clear message to Washington
Although the Sadrist Movement is the largest faction in the new parliament with 70 seats, this does not mean that the next government will be formed by the group, rather a coalition of several factions and parties will have to agree on a new cabinet. However, it is important to note that al-Sadr will undoubtedly play a key role in shaping the structure of the future government, which is why his remarks after the announcement of the preliminary results are so important. Reviewing his post-result remarks, we can suggest that he obviously pointed to the American interference in the home Iraqi affairs and the raised the withdrawal bid.
Al-Sadr said in the most important part of his speech "thank you to all the embassies that did not interfere in the affairs of Iraq and the formation of the government. Any interference will face diplomatic and possibly popular reaction proportionate to the crime committed. Iraq is only for the Iraqis.” The main target of the remarks was apparently the US which no day goes without it meddling in the Iraqi affairs.
Also, in addition to recent statements by the prominent Shiite leader, al-Sadr has repeatedly openly called for the withdrawal of the American occupiers in the past and stated his opposition to the American troops remaining on the Iraqi soil. In recent years, he repeatedly condemned the Israeli regime and the US for crimes against humanity and announced his backing for resistance to them. In addition, his background in the past shows that the victory of his affiliates has been the worst news for Americans, because al-Sadr, as the leader of the Mahdi Army, ran the largest anti-American armed organization from 2003 to 2007. His past gives the notion that when it comes to the opposition to the US, he will make no compromises to any party or individual.
Explicit anti-American message of election results to the new PM
The outcome of the elections and the victory of the anti-American coalitions set an apparent priority to the next prime minister: Implementation of the parliament’s foreign force expulsion bill. Either PM Mustafa al-Kadhimi retains the post or a new one is picked; the far-reaching issue is that the final agreement on the US exit from Iraq should be implemented as soon as possible. To the American administration’s frustration, the White House will have a minimal role in determining the new PM and the future equations will go against Washington’s agenda and will.
