Alwaght- These days the dispute of various actors in the Syrian crisis over the strategic town of Ayn Issa in the north of the war-ravaged country is at the center of focus of the political observers.
Over the past weeks, the Turkish military and its loyalist militias intensified their movements on the borderline of Ayn Issa and so far serval rounds of clashes were reported between them and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
Additionally, in the past few months, Turkish forces retreated from several posts they held in northwestern Syria in Idlib and Aleppo provinces. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Britain-based group monitoring the Syrian developments, the Turkish military has so far evacuated Al-Toghan, Murek, and Shir Maghar in the outskirts of Hama and Andan and Al-Rashdin in Aleppo outskirts, and Al-Serman in Idlib outskirts. Meanwhile, Ankara has deployed more forces to the “de-escalation regions” in the north.
These developments pushed the political observers to the speculation that the moves by Turkey may come as part of the Ankara-Moscow agreement on a green light to the Turks to seize Ayn Issa.
The town is of strategic position because of its location near the M4 international highway that passes Hasakah, Raqqa, and Aleppo. It links 7 Kurdish-held, autonomously-administered regions. So, fall of the town can deal a painful blow to the connection of the Kurdish-controlled areas. In fact, in case of the occupation of the town by the Kurds, other Kurdish-held strategic towns like Kobani and Manbij will, definitely, be at stake of collapse.
Kurds squander opportunities while Turkey seeks deathblow
Turkey seems to intend to accelerate its objective of taking control of Ayn Issa. On the opposite side, the Kurds waste their opportunities by continuing to trust the so-called US-led Western coalition. In 2016, Turkey’s army launched Operation Euphrates Shield in two phases and in 2018 launched Operation Olive Branch, seizing Afrin, Al-Bab, Jarabulus, and Azaz, towns with a Kurdish majority. In 2019, Ankara launched Operation Peace Spring. The US did not help Kurds counter the Turkish advancement. Now some analysts suggest that the aspirations for Ayn Issa make a sequel to those operations.
Despite all speculations, recently Turkey’s ministry of defense stated that it has no plans to seize Ayn Issa and the Kurdish forces attacked its forces on the M4 highway, triggering Turkish reciprocation. Despite the claims by the defense ministry, what looks definite is that Turkey looks forward to a lightning capture of the town should it gain Russian go-ahead.
Unlike Turkey, the Kurds are squandering their opportunities one after another, and with reliance on the US, they are predicted to sustain another defeat.
Recently, Syrian and Russian forces called on the SDF, a militant coalition of majorly-Kurdish forces, to withdraw, raise the Syrian flag in the town, and hand it over to the Syrian army to prevent Turkish forces offensive. The Kurds suggested that they will only hand over entries and exits of the town to Damascus forces, a suggestion met with negative response from Damascus and Moscow.
Currently, the SDF forces are experiencing some internal division. On the one side, some elements argue that repeated reliance on the US is a fatal mistake and will bring about more defeats in Eastern and Western Euphrates. They push for an immediate agreement with the central government and its staunch ally Russia over Ayn Issa control. On the other side, the leading and powerful stream in the SDF insists that the militaia should continue alliance with Washington and counter Ankara attacks.
Limitations ahead of Ankara for a new round of military campaign
Although Turkey has high military capabilities and a special position to capture Ayn Issa, it faces some roadblocks to realize its plans. Here are some of the main ones:
1. Syrian and Russian opposition to the occupation of Ayn Issa: Just unlike past years, the Syrians and Russians follow the Turkish military and its aligned forces’ movements with bigger sensitivity. In fact, they are now sure that Turkey does not want to seize the border areas in northern Syria just simply to protect its national security but wants to in the 32-kilometer Syrian territory depth annex 840 kilometers of borderline with Syria to its territory. Damascus and Moscow are now pushing to persuade the Kurds to allow Ayn Issa town to return under the control of the central government. Reports said that Russia recently sent a number of its military police forces to the Turkish-Kurdish clash points.
2. US opposition to the Turkish campaign: Another obstacle ahead of the Turkish operation in Ayn Issa is the possible opposition of the new US administration. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan thinks that the best time for capturing the strategic town is the next 20 days as Trump would depart beacuase the White House will not allow such a campaign by Ankara and its loyalist militias in Ayn Issa when Biden takes the power. The US Central Command Chief (Centcom) General Frank McKenzie a couple of days ago met the SDF commander Mazloum Kobani in the northeastern city of Qamishli. Moreover, the US seems to have not yet authorized flights of the Turkish fighter jets. Moreover, Erdogan is certainly concerned about Biden’s reaction and retaliation after assuming power and thus does not want to initiate early tensions with the incoming US administration.
