Alwaght- Trilateral cooperation of Turkey, Israel, and the US in Syria over the past years mainly rested on the objective of weakening Syrian government led by Bashar al-Assad, countering the Axis of Resistance, and containing Iran's regional influence. However, with the shift of equations as a result of fall of al-Assad, the strategic gaps have broadened among these actors. The differences over the division of influence in future Syria, especially between Ankara and Tel Aviv, have reached their peak and have led to flare-up of military confrontation.
End of short cooperation and start of competition chapter
Recent Israeli attacks on sites in Syria, which are said to have been eyed by Turkey for military bases, indicated the end of secret cooperation of these two players and entry to a new phase of security competition.
By targeting the T4 and Hama military airports, where Turkish military advisors were sent to plan to convert them into air bases, the Israeli regime conveyed a clear message to Ankara: We will not allow a Turkish military buildup in central Syria.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar commented on the Turkish plans, saying that it is trying to "turn Syria into a Turkish protectorate." He accused Ankara of playing a "negative role" in Syria, Lebanon, and other regions. This warning tone from the Israeli official comes after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently sent his top military advisor to Moscow to discuss developments in Syria. The trip, according to media reports, was based on Israeli concerns about increased military cooperation between Turkey and new Syrian government led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, officially named Ahmad al-Sharaa, which has led Tel Aviv to address this concern by supporting Russia's military presence in Syria.
Turkey is seeking to broaden its influence in a variety of ways in Syria, most important of which is security and military presence through agreements with the new rulers of Damascus and also building a sway over Syrian military forces using military advisors who will oversee new Syrian army formation.
Earlier, Israeli media outlets such as Yedioth Aharonot reported that the military cooperation project between Ankara and Damascus included equipping Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) with combat drones, radars, electronic warfare systems and air defense systems, and in addition, establishing Turkish military bases on Syrian soil, where strike aircraft could be stationed.
As part of these efforts, Turkey has recently dispatched its military equipment and experts to several regions in Syria, including Homs and Palmyra, to prepare for the construction of military bases equipped with advanced weapons of various types. T4 Airport was among the most important locations considered for the establishment of a Turkish air base on Syrian soil.
This measure, which is taken with the aim of establishing Turkish military presence in future Syria, is a key step for strong economic presence in Syria reconstruction through Turkish companies and to start benefiting from the opportunities and resources Syria can provide to Turkey.
Also, it should not be forgotten that Turkey at the back of its head has territorial ambitions in vast parts of Syria's north. It sees Aleppo as a Turkish territory and even before fall of al-Assad, Ankara called for a buffer zone 30 kilometers deep into Syria.
What is Israeli dream for Syria and Turkey?
Despite all the Israeli concerns about Turkish military presence in Syria, there is a kind of exaggeration in positions of Israeli media and officials about the so-called threats stemming from Turkish Syria influence and even from al-Jolani against Israel which is seen as a justification for Tel Aviv and Washington to stab Ankara in the back and turn Syria into the graveyard of Erdogan's dreams.
First, it is absolutely clear and evident that the Syrian militants, led by the HTS, have not posed any threat to Israel after taking control of Damascus. Even when the Israeli army destroyed the entire military and logistical infrastructure of the former Syrian army and advanced to less than 20 kilometers from Damascus, no effective military action was taken by the militants to confront the Israeli occupation. In complete disbelief to all, al-Jolani said that Syria would not pose any threat to Israel, easing Netanyahu's worries about new Syria.
On the other hand, while several media reports talked about Turkish intention to set up military bases in central Syria, this issue is not officially announced by Ankara, and even after Israeli bombardment of the bases, Turkish foreign ministry in a largely conservative statement talked about commitment to diplomatic approaches, showing that Ankara has no will to reciprocate Israeli military rampancy and actions against its interests in Syria.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan told Reuters on Friday that Turkey does not want any confrontation with Israel in Syria. The Turkish foreign ministry statement, without mentioning Ankara’s intention to establish bases in Syria, especially at military airports, only said that the Israeli attacks in Syria were carried out "without any provocation."
Turkey is one of the few Islamic countries that has formal diplomatic relations with the Israeli regime, and economic relations between the two sides continue to be strong even at the height of political tensions. The Erdogan government’s positions in support of the Palestinians are mainly based on a tug-of-war to advance Turkey’s influence in the Arab world and have never led to real military support for the Palestinians, let alone a direct threat to Israel.
Even during Gaza wars, including the current one, Turkey in association with Azerbaijan has taken advantage of the international boycott of Israel to increase its trade share in Israeli market, especially in oil market. Turkey is the biggest market for Israeli weapons and in addition to close intelligence cooperation, it modernizes its warplanes and tanks in Israel.
It even formally condemned at a NATO summit Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel which was Israel’s biggest defeat and Palestinian success during 8 decades of anti-occupation struggle.
Thus, Israel’s attacks in the past three days go far beyond eliminating the threats posed by Turkey’s military presence on Syrian soil or by the new so-called Islamist government in Damascus. Rather, with military advances in strategic southwestern Syria, it is rapidly pursuing its project, with the help of the US, for a new Syria that is demilitarized and divided into small sectarian and ethnic states. In this regard, Israeli officials have recently openly spoken of the need to form federations and canton in Syria.
Silence to the massacre of the Alawites by the HTS forces in western coast of Syria, which also reflects a threat to millions of Alawite community of Turkey, and on the other hand showing support to the Druze community and the US-backed Kurds is nothing but transforming Syria into the swamp of threats against Turkey, even if Tel Aviv ostensibly talks about dangers posed by Turkish military and influence buildup in Syria.
Now the Turkish-Israeli competition in Syria has entered a new stage. While Ankara seeks to establish its military and political presence, Israel through its airstrikes seeks to prevent tipping the scales to its detriment. This confrontation will bring Syria stability and regional equations face to face with serious challenges.
