Alwaght- Clashes on the Yemeni battlegrounds resumed in recent days after a ceasefire between Yemen's National Salvation Government (NSG) and the Arab coalition countries, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, missed a third extension. Ansarullah Movement of Yemen, as a result, repeated its threats against the allies, and meanwhile, the UAE that has a smaller strategic depth and size compared to Saudi Arabia finds itself more susceptible to Ansarullah threats and is heavily concerned about reigniting the clashes.
Since the major part of the UAE incomes is from oil exports through the sea routes, further attacks on its oil facilities can lead to the interruption of oil revenues and a great damage to the economy. The UAE is known as a ‘glass economy’ due to its economic dependence on the boom of real estate sector and a role in international financial exchanges. For this reason, Ansarullah's large-scale operations in this country will foist irreparable consequences on the Emiratis.
Dubai city, which is an economic hub in the Persian Gulf, reached its current position thanks to the security it enjoys, and if its airports, which transport thousands of people daily, are targeted by the Yemenis, it would turn into an area of insecurity, with high investment risks. Following last year's operation against Abu Dhabi, the UAE stock market fell sharply within a few hours, and the re-launch of such attacks will make the situation even more difficult for the leaders of Abu Dhabi.
About half of the 10 million population of the UAE are foreigners who live in this country temporarily or permanently, and most of them came to this Arab sheikhdom to gain economic benefits. If Yemen's missile operation against the UAE resumes, which is not far from expected, continuous economic crises will plague the Arab monarchy.
In recent weeks, Yemeni armed forces several times issued warnings to the foreign investors and companies, asking them to leave the UAE and Saudi Arabia before the missile and drone strikes begin. Foreign investors and big businesspeople invest in a place where security prevails. Therefore, in the event of insecurity in the UAE, foreign capital will flee the country. In the last two years, according to the statistics, hundreds of foreign investors have left the UAE, and specifically Abu Dhabi has lost billions of dollars.
The insecurity of the UAE will be costly for the ruler of the country Mohammad bin Zayed from a political point of view, too. Because the rulers of other emirates of this monarchy, such as Dubai, are strongly opposed to bin Zayed's ambitious policies in the region and have repeatedly criticized his warmongering in Yemen. Actually, if the presence in Yemen endangers the economy of Dubai and the interests of other emirates, it may lead to their rebellion against Abu Dhabi. Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, the ruler of Dubai, has repeatedly criticized bin Zayed for the staggering costs of the war in Yemen and the fact that Dubai is paying a large part of the costs of Abu Dhabi's war machine. This issue has caused a power struggle within the ruling families of the Emirates and the rest of the emirates are waiting for an opportunity to hit bin Zayed, and the Yemen war, which will resume with more intensity and power this time, can provide them with the opportunity to put the rulers of Abu Dhabi in their place.
The Emirati ruler is so concerned about resumption of Yemen's strikes that during his visit to Russia last week, Yemen was part of his agenda. It seems that the UAE asked Russia to persuade Ansarullah to stop its operations against Abu Dhabi, but the Yemenis will not entertain any considerations concerning the enemies this time, and even foreign requests cannot stop them from the path they are taking.
The UAE is seeking to prevent Yemen strikes while it is more than Saudi Arab hawkish and its mercenaries have made huge fortunes plundering Yemen's oil and gas reserves, infuriating Ansarullah. The movement recently warned it gained such a big power it can take back Yemen's energy resources from the occupiers and will do so in the near future. Since the UAE has facilitated Israeli presence on the Yemeni soil in order to take the country's energy resources hostage, Ansarullah is extremely angry with Abu Dhabi and plans to punish this sheikhdom with crushing operations.
Abu Dhabi resorting to Israeli arms
Extremely worried about Yemeni operations against its sites, the UAE turns to any trick to protect its fragile security against Ansarullah. So far incapable of containing Yemeni missile and drone strikes, Abu Dhabi leaders are turning to the Israelis for arms to intercept the future strikes.
In the past weeks, Israeli media have reported that Tel Aviv has agreed to sell the ‘Spyder’ air defense system to the UAE. Spyder is an air defense system fed with Python and Derby air-to-air missiles. This interceptor is made by the Rafael Advanced Defense Systems and is designed to intercept a variety of aerial threats, including airplanes, helicopters, and drones.
The purchase of Israeli air defenses comes as the UAE for long years has been using the much-vaunted American-made Patriot missile systems which failed to effectively engage Ansarullah's missiles and drones and so it is unclear how successful the Israeli weapons can be in this mission. The UAE purchased these Israeli defense systems when the ceasefire was in place in Yemen, and so far they have not been able to demonstrate their capabilities on the battleground, but what is certain is that the American systems are far more powerful than the Israeli type, and the inefficiency of the Israeli systems will be proven in the future.
From another aspect, it is noteworthy that Israel never sells highly advanced weapon systems to the Arab countries and provides them with older versions to maintain the regional military balance in its favor, though even if its much-praised Iron Dome is provided to the UAE, it would never guarantee the Arab country's security as in past years the system was tested in wars against the Palestinians and Lebanese Hezbollah and proved a failure and could not secure Israeli settlers. Therefore, weaker than Iron Dome systems certainly cannot engage Ansarullah's missile and drone strikes.
In recent days, Ansarullah officials warned that Israeli weapon deliveries to the Saudi-led coalition “will not help the compromising regimes” and they will not be immune to the planned operations. During the six-month ceasefire, though Ansarullah's operations against the aggression coalition had stopped, Yemenis seized the opportunity to boost their missile and drone arsenals and build advanced weapon systems effective and powerful enough to grab the calm from Riyadh and Abu Dhabi leaders’ eyes.
Eight years of war waged by Saudi Arabia and the UAE on Yemen not only yielded no fruits to the aggressors, but also increased their costs and foisted heavy damages on them as they became regular targets to Ansarullah's missiles and attack drones hitting their depth. Certainly, buying Israeli air defenses and even drones cannot save the UAE's glass economy and the best option for Emirates rulers is to show wisdom and end the tensions with Yemen and leave the country's fate to its own people since further warmongering brings further insecurity to this Persian Gulf sheikhdom and Abu Dhabi rulers would pay a heavy price if foreign investments flee and oil revenues are cut off.
