Turkey's Possible Post-Election Scenarios to Form Government

Alwaght | News & Analysis Website

Alwaght- Parliamentary election in Turkey plays a very important role in the political future of the country, as it was the first parliamentary election after directly electing the Turkish president. The results show that none of the political parties won the majority, and the ruling party, supporting ‘Recep Tayyip Erdogan’ lost the parliamentary majority it had held since 2002. In fact, the results of the election ended Turkey’s 13 year single-party rule, and an unknown era has begun in the Turkish policy, which could be a return to the era of coalition governments. Erdogan as president of Turkey, according to country’s Constitution, will appoint Ahmet Davutoğlu, the leader of the largest political party in parliament to form a government. However, given that at least 276 seats are needed to form a government, the following three scenarios are possible: 1. The Justice and Development Party (AKP) forms a ‘minority government’. If a minority government is formed, the government virtually cannot easily pass its proposed bills, and will have to constructively interact with the other parties and provide them with a role in government decisions. 2. AKP enters into a coalition with other parties to from a ‘coalition government’. As AKP is unlikely to form a coalition with the Republican People's Party and Nationalist movement party, the only likely option would be the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party. Although the Justice and Development Party and the People's Democratic Party run election campaigns against each other, and coined slogans to call the other party into question, but they are now likely to form a coalition. In such a case, the AKP should grant the People's Democratic Party significant concessions, especially about the rights of the Kurdish minority. 3. No government is formed within the next 45 days, and the country would have to enter another round of elections. Given the strong opposition from the other three parties to the policies of the AKP, it seems that forming a minority government or a coalition government is faced with difficulties. Therefore, it is also likely that Turkey enter another round of elections. The constitution gives Erdogan and the parliament the authority to call an early parliamentary election. That election would have to be held three months later.

Alwaght | News & Analysis Website

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