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Analysis

Crossing Putin’s Red Line: What’s behind Ukraine Offensive in Kursk?

Saturday 10 August 2024
Crossing Putin’s Red Line: What’s behind Ukraine Offensive in Kursk?

Alwaght- After months of tangible stagnation in the battle between the Russian and Ukrainian forces, in recent days, the fire of fighting inflamed again, leading to massive clashes.

In the rejuvenated wave of surprise operations on Tuesday, the Ukrainian forces launched a infiltration operation in Kursk border city of Russia. 

Ukraine's armed forces claimed to have targeted a military airport deep inside Russian territory and destroyed its warehouses with guided bombs.

In a statement, the Ukrainian army announced a night attack and a huge fire and multiple explosions at Liptsk airport, located 350 km from the Ukrainian border.

Local authorities in Lipetsk also confirmed the explosion in an "energy infrastructure facility" and declared a state of emergency throughout the region. 

According to Lipetsk Governor Igor Artamonov, a massive drone strike damaged a power plant Thursday evening far from the Ukrainian border. Artamonov wrote on Telegram that "energy infrastructure was damaged" and that the attack led to a power outage, which was later restored to most of the affected homes. Declaring a state of emergency in the region, the governor ordered the evacuation of four nearby villages "to ensure the safety of the residents", which includes 416 families.

Thousands of people have been evacuated from Kursk and civilian casualties have been reported. Heavy fighting near the city of Sudzha, where Russian natural gas is transported to Ukraine, has raised concerns about a sudden halt to transit flows to Europe.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Thursday that Russia brought the war to the country and should feel the consequences of this war. 

"Ukrainians know how to achieve their goals and we did not choose to achieve our goals in war," he said. 

The attack on Kursk is the third counterattack by the Ukrainians in the past year, after the previous two operations failed, and the Ukrainians hope to make gains this time. 

Previous Ukrainian attacks on Russia, near the city of Belgorod, were carried out by Russian anti-Kremlin groups, but this time the offensive by Ukrainian forces was a combination of infantry, armored vehicles, drones, electronic warfare and air defenses. 

There are no exact data about the number of Russian casualties in this attack, but the published videos show that dozens of Russian soldiers were captured by the Ukrainians at the checkpoint in the west of Sudzha region.

However, contrary to Kiev's claims, Russian military officials announced the failure of the Ukrainian operation with high casualties. According to the Ministry of Defense of Russia, at least 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers were killed and a number of tanks and armored vehicles were destroyed.

Russia described this attack as one of the biggest Ukrainian attacks on Russian soil since the beginning of the war in February 2022. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin has described this act of Ukraine as extremely provocative.

Russian lightning reaction

Although Russia was surprised by the Ukrainian forces and Kiev gained maneuverability in Kursk for a few days, the Russian army was able to restore the balance in its favor by sending troops and weapons.

On Friday, Russian defense ministry, pointing out that Ukraine has lost almost 280 soldiers and 27 military vehicles in the last 24 hours, announced: "In total, since the beginning of the fighting in Kursk, the losses of the enemy amounted to 945 military personnel and have reached 102 vehicles, including 12 tanks, 17 armored personnel carriers, 6 infantry fighting vehicles and 67 armored combat vehicles."

The Ministry of Defense of Russia announced that the Su-34 fighter jets attacked the personnel and military equipment of the Ukrainian forces. 

Also, released footage of columns moving towards Kursk shows Grad missile systems, artillery, tanks and heavy tracked equipment.

"Operations to defeat the armed forces of Ukraine continue, and the Russian army continues to repel Ukrainian attempts to infiltrate the Kursk region," the Russian defense ministry said.

On the other hand, the National Anti-Terrorism Committee of Russia announced that it will implement anti-terrorist measures in the regions of Kursk, Bryansk and Belgorod to "ensure the safety of the people and stop the terrorist attacks of the Kiev regime."

New Ukrainian offensive with Western-provided weapons 

The Ukrainian attack on Kursk comes as in recent months Kiev has received way more military aid from the West. 

Three months ago, the US Congress approved $61 billion in Ukraine aid, allowing the Biden administration to send arms to Kiev government whenever it needed. 

Amid the fighting in Kursk, the Pentagon said in a statement on Friday that to help Kiev meet its "vital security and defense needs," the US will send Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, ammunition for the Himars artillery missile systems, 155mm and 105mm rounds, Javelin missiles, AT-4 anti-tank and TOW, ammunition for small arms, and mines. 

Since President Joe Biden took office, the US has sent more than $56.2 billion in military aid to Ukraine, according to Pentagon figures.

In addition to sending thousands of missiles and tanks to Ukraine, aid has been provided to Ukraine recently in the air field, and after two years of consultation between Kiev and NATO, the first batch of F-16 fighters was finally delivered to the Ukrainian air force. 

Two weeks ago, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis wrote on X: "F-16 in Ukraine. Another impossible task became completely possible." 

Westerners hope that with the entry of F-16 into the field of battle with Russia, they can turn the tide in their favor, but Moscow authorities have said that this fighter jet will not help Ukraine in the conflict. 

In the three years since the war started, the Russians have been able to destroy many NATO weapons, and it is not unlikely that the F-16s will suffer the same fate as the previous weapons.

The Ukrainian military has so far had to rely on a relatively small fleet of ex-Soviet-era jets to hold back Russian forces, so Ukrainian officials regard the addition of the F-16s to their air fleet as a vital upgrade.

Although it is not yet known how many F-16 fighters are going to be delivered to Ukraine, Denmark has pledged to donate a total of 19 jets and the Netherlands has promised to deliver 24.

If the F-16s can achieve success on the battlefield, sending a large number of these weapons will probably be on the West's agenda.

Ukraine's goals behind new round of counterattacks

The surprise offensive on Kursk is not being carried out from a position of power, rather, it is a kind of tactical and temporary move to deal blows to Russia. 

The leaders of Kiev, who have lost 15 percent of their country's territory and given the Moscow officials' rejection to hand over them back to Kiev, are trying to put Moscow in a tight spot in the four war-affected regions. 

By incursion into Russian territory, Ukraine plans to distract the Russians from advancing on the territory of Ukraine, where they have captured several regions in recent weeks.

Most analysts believe that Russia will expel Ukrainian forces from its territory very soon. Nevertheless, Ukrainians wanted to send a message to the Kremlin leaders that if the war is prolonged, insecurity will also extend into Russia's borders.

Ukraine's counteroffensive appears to be temporary, as Ukraine does not have the forces needed or desire to occupy the territory for a long period of time, and is only intended to push Russian forces back from the Donbas front lines and spread fear among Russian troops.

Some experts believe that Ukraine did not have the courage to attack the territory of Russia and that a strong foreign driving force such as the US government has been behind it, as Washington tries to pretend to the public ahead of the presidential election that their policies have been efficient in the battlefields of Ukraine.

For this reason, Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh defended the attack on Kursk on Friday and claimed that the attacks of the Ukrainian army are in line with the US policy and did not escalate tensions in the region, and now President Vladimir Putin of Russia is responsible for curbing tensions.

Germany, the top culprit in the eyes of Kremlin 

Since Ukraine has used Western arms in its offensive on the Russian territory, Moscow leaders have warned the arms providers about consequences.

Referring to the use of German tanks by Ukrainian forces in the attack on Kursk, Dmitriy Medvedev, the deputy of the Russian National Security Council, wrote in a message on X: "The German newspaper Bild has published an article in which it proudly announces the return of German tanks to the Russian lands. In response to Germany's support for Ukraine's attack on Russian territory, Moscow would do everything to bring the newest Russian tanks to Platz D. Republik Square in Berlin."

The presence of German tanks in Kursk took place after the NATO member countries abandoned all security reservations about Russia and gave Kiev permission to use Western weapons to attack Russian territory.

The offensive, aimed at pushing Russian forces back, can bring about possibility of NATO-Russia confrontation, something German officials are warning about. 

"If German tanks were used in the attack of the Ukrainian armed forces on the Kursk region, this is another violation of the red line. For two years, we have seen that everything announced by the German authorities is not implemented in practice. We are getting closer to becoming a party to the conflict in Ukraine. And people are worried about it," said Minister President of the German federal state of Saxony, Michael Kretschmer, on Friday. 

He said that Berlin should stop sending arms to the Ukrainian forces. 

Many agree that step by step crossing of the Russian red lines by the NATO not only will not help settle the crisis, but also can spark the Third World War in which there will be no winner given the involvement of nuclear powers.

Tags :

Ukraine Russia Offensive F16 Putin Germany US

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