Alwaght- On Wednesday, the twentieth round of Astana Initiative talks gathering together Russia, Iran and Turkey as the guarantors of the Syrian peace process was held in Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan and continued for two days.
Kazakhstan foreign ministry said that in this meeting, changes in the region's position towards Syria, the humanitarian situation, efforts to resolve the crisis, fighting terrorism, and reconstruction of Syria and providing suitable conditions for the return of refugees were discussed. Also, according to the Russians, Turkey-Syria détente is also part of the agenda of this meeting.
The meeting was attended by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Michael Bogdanov, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Asghar Haji, and Turkish Deputy Foreign Minister Burak Akcapar.
Ayman Susan, Syria's deputy foreign minister, was also present as the country's representative. Also, Geir Pedersen, the UN Secretary General's special representative for Syrian affairs, and representatives from Jordan, Lebanon, and Iraq participated as observers.
In recent months, the issue of the return of refugees has occupied the most important part of the meetings related to Syria, which requires comprehensive regional cooperation. Bogdanov said the issue of refugees is complex and to solve it, in addition to destroying terrorism and returning the security situation to its normal state, the economic situation must also be fixed and the economy, infrastructure, and cities and villages must be rebuilt. This Russian official expressed hope that Syria will be supported by the Arab countries with whom Damascus is normalizing relations.
Astana meeting is held as in the past months there have been several other meetings between the security and political officials of Russia, Iran, Turkey and Syria in Moscow, mainly to provide the conditions for Ankara-Damascus rapprochement and subsequently direct meeting of the leaders of the two countries after a decade of hostility.
Astana process now symbolic
The recent Astana meeting is a sequel to serial meetings arranged over the past years with the aim of ending the Syrian crisis. This meeting at a time the foreign-backed terrorist groups were running rampant across Syria was of great significance and delegations from the opposition groups and their allies were attending, and due to the large scale of the crisis, the world had its eyes on it to see what are its outcomes. The first meeting of the Astana process was held in January 2017 with the presence of Russian, Iranian, and Turkish representatives.
Astana meetings have been held 19 times in the past six years, six of which have been at the level of the heads of state of Turkey, Iran, and Russia, who last met in Tehran in last summer to come up with a solution to this crisis.
The role of the Astana meetings in the agreement on the separation of opposition groups from extremist groups to accelerate the process of battling terrorism in Syria was unique. Also, speeding up delivery of humanitarian aids to war-torn areas and determining de-escalation zones to prevent the spread of conflicts and control the crisis were other significant achievements of the Astana Initiative for gradual settlement of Syrian crisis.
As the crisis winded down, opposition groups were driven out of the game one after another and now these meetings are limited to Russia, Iran, and Turkey which play an important role in the political and field developments in Syria.
Today, the situation is incomparable to the past and the central government has managed to restore relative peace in the country by obliterating most of the terrorist groups. On the other hand, the Arab League, which was one of the main supporters of the Syrian opposition groups, allowed the Syrian government to rejoin in May and has chosen friendship over confrontation.
Accelerating Ankara-Damascus rapprochement
Though Astana meeting now is relatively pointless and is held symbolically, due to its successful experience, it can continue to influence the future Syrian developments. Having in mind that these days in the Syrian developments the major issue is détente with Turkey and return of refugees, holding a regional meeting can speed up this process.
The talks that were held in recent months between the officials of the four countries to improve the relations between Turkey and Syria all emphasized that Turkey must agree to the conditions of Damascus in order to establish diplomatic relations. The conditions include withdrawal of Turkish military forces from the northern regions of Syria as the most important part, but Ankara has so far taken to effective steps to their realization despite expressing commitment to them.
On the other hand, since more than 3.5 million Syrian refugees live in Turkey, the issue of their return is a priority of the two countries, and part of the rapprochement talks have addressed this issue. The Turkish government needs the cooperation of Damascus in order to provide the conditions for the return of millions of Syrian refugees, but as long as Turkish military forces are present in the northern regions, there will be no progress in this case. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey recently claimed in a speech that he has started the construction of one million housing units for refugees in different cities of Syria, which according to experts, this move will somehow continue Turkish occupation.
Another issue is that after presidential elections, Ankara resumed its attacks on Kurdish militia factions in northern Syria, running counter to the four-party agreements. The attacks, carried out without consultation of the central government, are a violation of Syrian territorial integrity and have drawn warnings from Damascus officials.
While Turkish officials claim that the presence of Kurdish separatist groups in northern Syria threatens the country's national security, the Syrian government and its allies Iran and Russia demand an end to Ankara's attacks, respect for Syria's territorial integrity, and implementation of security mechanisms and agreements. Astana negotiations can play an important role in this area.
Currently, one of the biggest obstacle to security agreements in the northern regions of Syria, both between the Kurds and the central government and Ankara and Damascus, is the illegal military presence of the US. Bogdanov, also Russia's special representative of the country's president in the Middle East and Africa, described the US as the main obstacle to an agreement between the Kurds and the central government.
Currently, the US has officially about 900 troops in Syria, stationed in the northern regions. They are busy building multiple military bases and plundering Syrian oil.
With Astana process focusing on facilitation of Turkish-Syrian reconciliation, addressing concerns and settling mutual security riddles in the north and northeast is the most important help the process can offer to the two countries. Ankara, on the side, is well aware that with the start of Syrian-Arab convergence, continuation of military, and possibly, territorial adventures, which include demographic changes in the north, will be of no avail to it, and, thus, it can settle the differences within the frameworks of the Astana Initiative and restore peace.
