Alwaght- After the Syrian army and its allies’ victories in the south, the eyes are now on the north. According to media reports, Syrian army is making final preparations for a ground offensive to end terrorists’ control over Lattakia’s northeastern suburbs and the heights overlooking the Jisr Al-Shughur town in Idlib province. The evacuation of the residents of the two besieged Shiite towns of Fuah and Kafriya in central Idlib a fortnight ago sharpened the possibility of the army’s intention to launch a massive operation against the terrorists.
Currently, Idlib is the last major stronghold of the anti-Damascus terrorists in the north. The province has been a scene to various clashes and reckonings between various factions holding the province.
A diverse number of terrorist groups are holding Idlib, each with its own ideology, goals, and foreign dependence. They saw many changes over the five years of control of the province. A picture of them and the development they have seen over time helps develop a prospect of the upcoming operation and future of the militant factions.
Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (Formerly Al-Nusra Front): The group before rebranding was named Al-Nusra Front, Al-Qaeda terrorist group’s affiliate. The group is the mightiest group in Idlib and holds the largest tract of territory in the province.
Ahrar al-Sham: The group seeks setting up in Syria a so-called Islamic state governed by Sharia law. The group is ideologically affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood and holds close ties to Turkey and Qatar. The group was formed by merging five militant factions– Al-Tawhid Brigade, Ahrar al-Sham Brigades, Fajr Islamic Movement, Al-Talia Islamic Movement, and Al-Iman Combat Brigades. Reports suggest that the group has nearly 20,000 fighters, much of them Syrian nationals. The group was hit by division as its factions differed in stances about the Turkish operation in the north, codenamed Operation Euphrates Shield, launched in 2016. Hashem al-Sheikh, its commander at the time, defected and joined a rival group, Tahrir al-Sham.
Up to 2017, Ahrar al-Sham controlled Bab al-Hawa Border Crossing, a gate between Turkey and Syria it lost to Tahrir al-Sham following an offensive by the latter last year.
Free Idlib Army: The militia was created in 2016 following a merger deal of three branches– 13th Brigade, Northern Division, and Soghour Al-Jabal Brigade– of the Free Syrian Army (FSA). The main objective behind its creation was set up an alliance between once-rival factions.
Faylaq al-Sham: The group came out of the merger of 19 armed factions, labeled “moderate Islamists”. A major part of the factions is affiliated with Syrian branch of Muslim Brotherhood.
Al-Mujahideen Army: The group, affiliated with FSA, has about 1,000 fighters and was formed in opposition to the ISIS terrorist group.
Forsan al-Haq: The group was formed in 2012 with over 2,000 fighters. It is a subdivision of FSA and is mainly concentrated in Kafr Nabl town in Western Idlib.
Fastaqem Kama Umert Unit: This group is also related to the FSA and has 2,000 fighters.
Nuruddin Zanki Movement: The movement was established in late 2011 in Aleppo province suburbs by a Syrian opposition figure named Sheikh Tofigh Shahab. Initially, the group was an ally to the FSA and cooperated with the group against the government forces in several operations. The group witnessed shifts of stances and change of allies as it continued life. For example, it once coalesced with Jaysh al-Fatah and fought against the Syrian army during a confrontation in Idlib. When Astana peace process launched, brokered by Russia, Iran, and Turkey, the group allied with Fatah al-Sham, forming Jabhat Tahrir al-Sham, the largest and strongest militia in Idlib. Their alliance did not last long, however. In mid-2017, clashes between Tahrir al-Sham and Ahrar al-Sham Movement brought their alliance to an end, leading to Ahrar Al-Sham-Nurrudin Zanki alliance.
Soghour al-Sham: The group has Muslim Brotherhood affiliation, eyeing an Islamic government in which priorities’ rights are respected. Reports suggest it has 6,000 fighters. It joined Ahrar al-Sham alliance in 2015 and broke with it a year later to join Jaysh al-Fatah. Soghour al-Sham renewed its alliance with Ahrar Al-Sham in 2017.
Jaysh Al-Iza: This faction is in alliance with the FSA. It is active in Sahl Al-Ghab region in the northwest.
Liwa al-Haq: Close to Tahrir al-Sham, the group has 2,000 forces.
Jund Al-Aqsa: The group came to existence after its fighters, around 1,000, defected from Tahrir al-Sham.
Turkistan Islamic Party: Founded by Uyghurs, minority ethnic group from China, the extremist group was one of the initial supporters of al-Qaeda in China’s east. The group secured a specific place among other terrorist groups upon its involvement in Syria conflict.
Jaysh Al-Badia and Jaysh al-Malahem: The two groups were Tahrir al-Sham factions before defection last year. They find the Turkistan Islamic Party’s activities as close to their own.
Idlib-based terrorist groups’ transformations and gaps
When Astana peace process started in 2016 with the participation of some of the mainly Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated armed groups, Fatah al-Sham raided many of their strongholds and seized their areas. A number of like-minded Idlib-based groups joined Fatah al-Sham and created Tahrir Al-Sham. In response, the negotiating groups joined forces with Ahrar al-Sham in the face of Tahrir al-Sham alliance.
Since then, Idlib was home to two camps, Saudi-backed Tahrir and Turkish-Qatari-backed Ahrar, the first with Salafist and the second with Muslim Brotherhood roots. The two have been in a race for recruitment and territory expansion. Turning to be stronger operationally, Tahrir al-Sham gathered other partners under a new alliance, Syrian Liberation Front, on February 18, 2018.
Therefore, Idlib is a theater to two opposite discourses, Salafism and Muslim Brotherhood Islamism. Rifts between their supporters, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, even deepen their divisions, which can play into the hands of the Syrian army and its allies to defeat them in a shorter time. Turkey, taking cues from the Syrian Liberation Front, seeks to bring its Syrian allies under a united camp, dubbed the National Liberation Front. But the main challenge to the government forces’ Idlib campaign remains Tahrir al-Sham, which has great capabilities in terms of equipment and fighters.
