Alwaght- The idea of forming an autonomous Sunni region in Iraq’s Sunni-inhabited areas has been raised in recent years. In a very latest move on August 6, 2016, the Iraqi Forces Alliance, a coalition of Sunni groups in the Iraqi parliament, in a statement said that the leaders of the Alliance recently held a meeting in the house of Osama al-Nujaifi, the former speaker of the parliament and one of the leaders of the parliamentary bloc the Mutahedun Alliance. The statement added that they decided to form a leadership council for six Sunni provinces of Iraq. The members in the meeting also coordinated their stances on a “Sunni region" in the country, according to the statement.
Although the plan of all-Sunni autonomous region in Iraq has its own supporters among the Sunni community and some regional countries like Saudi Arabia are backing it, there are several big impediments in the way of realization of this aim of Sunnis. In fact, the grounds are yet far from being prepared and all in all it cannot be considered a realistic and implementable plan, rather, it can be seen as a political stance with the aim of threatening and pressing the central Iraqi government and getting some of the regional countries to make concessions.
What are the hurdles ahead of establishing a Sunni region?
- Ideological hurdles
There are different and conflicting ideological movements among the active Sunni political forces of the country, including Islamism, ethnicism, secularism, and Ba'athism. These ideological views fuel the tensions between them and so deprive them from unity and consistency in their course of pursuing their political objectives. The Islamist groups also are comprised of Muslim Brotherhood-style and takfiri movements. Some of them even apostatize the other Sunni groups of the country.
- Political differences
Among the Sunni Arabs of the country there is no political leadership that can lead the majority of the Sunni community. Actually, the political figures and several political parties are consistently living in a state of political division and rivalry.
The recent tensions among the key Sunni parties that started after the clashes erupted between the defense minister, the speaker of the parliament, and several members of the Sunni parties were in fact a kind of intra-Sunni rift. In the struggle, the Defense Minister Khaled al-Obeidi was backed by Mutahedun Alliance led by Osama al-Nujaifi while Salim al-Jubouri, the speaker of the parliament, was supported by the Iraqi Islamic Party and members of other Sunni groups.
- The geographic conditions
The Sunni-inhabited regions and provinces including Nineveh, Al Anbar, and Salaheddin are neighbors to each other but are located in considerable distances from each other. None of them holds an upper hand in terms of centrality or better geographic location, and so none of them can be picked as center of a Sunni federal government. Diyala, another Sunni province, is far away from the other Sunni provinces.
- Historic, cultural, and social differences
There are considerable cultural, historic, and social gaps between the Sunni provinces of Iraq. Mosul sees itself as the second largest and most significant city of Iraq and dubs itself as “head of the country." It is boastful of its long history and rich culture. It was capital when some historical dynasties ruled over Iraq. In the opposing side is Al Anbar which is a tribal province and is home to old and original tribes of Iraq. None of these two provinces can accept going under rule of the other as capital of an autonomous Sunni region.
- Overlap of Sunni and non-Sunni regions
There is a great deal of overlap between the regions of residence of Sunnis, Shiites, Kurds, and Turkmens in the country. It is impossible to draw the borders of an all-Sunni region without moving millions of non-Sunni people living in the majorly Sunni provinces. The cities of Tal Afar in Mosul and Balad in Salaheddin are both Shiite cities. At the same time, a large population of the Sunni Muslims are living in Baghdad and Basra, which are homes to majorly Shiite Muslims.
- Divide over the three provinces of Baghdad, Diyala, and Kirkuk
The Sunnis consider themselves as owners of six provinces in Iraq, but the reality is completely different in Baghdad, Diyala, and Kirkuk. The Shiites, Kurds, and Turkmens are claiming control over some regions in these three provinces. If the Sunnis insist on forming an autonomous Sunni region, then they have to accept ruling only over Al Anbar and some areas of Nineveh and Salaheddin.
- Lack of economic self-sufficiency
The key sources of income of Iraq including oil fields, seaports, trade and farming, are majorly in the Shiite-inhabited regions. On the other side, to run an autonomous government and pay for the daily living costs of people, the Sunni region desperately needs budget from the central government.
- Security requirements
The Sunni movements lack capable armed forces or security and military institutions to provide security of a Sunni federation. Only a small and limited military force can come out of mobilization of the Sunni tribes.
- Kurdish region as a failed pattern
Several years after formation of the autonomous Kurdish region, regional government of Kurdistan in northern Iraq is now grappling with a slew of political and economic crises. It failed to win an acceptable foreign recognition, and so cannot present a good pattern for other regions, including a Sunni region in the country.
- ISIS role
ISIS terrorist group is being dealt a blow by the Shiite forces, the central government, and their allies in the areas it is holding. If Sunni regions are separated from the mainland, the terrorist group would restore strength in them.
All in all it must be said that Iraq now lacks the grounds needed to form a Sunni region, and any internal or foreign sides that seek this model for Iraq are thought as not being in their right mind. The maximum demands of the Sunnis can be provincial powers for such provinces as Mosul and Al Anbar within a united Iraq.
