Alwaght- Lebanon's anti-government protests sparked on October 17 last year. State employers, workers, youths, civil activists, and teachers joined the protests calling for political reforms, tax cuts, end of corruption, and addressing such problems as unemployment, inflation, fuel shortages, and expensive services. As they unfolded, Prime Minister Saad Hariri announced resignation on October 29.
As the political developments went on, Hassan Diab, who won 69 of the total 127 votes of the lawmakers, was named new PM by President Michael Aoun. He has a PhD in computer science and has been a professor of the American University of Beirut since 1985.
Since his naming, Diab faced many problems hampering his efforts to form a new cabinet.
Diab efforts for a new cabinet
Since his resignation as PM, he repeatedly said that he can work with representatives of various parties and that he invites them to join the new cabinet. He also said that he wants to form a technocratic government and interact with the Western and Arab states and institutions to win their support as they are interested to see a technocratic government in Lebanon.
He has drawn lines for the formation of the new government. He said that he wants to have 18 ministers, scrap the minister of state posts, increase the women's role, merge some ministries, and avoid using the resigned ministers and lawmakers.
Despite all these, he has tried to engage in dialogue with various parties and groups towards a solution out of the current political impasse. In his meeting with Suleiman Frangieh, the head of the Marada Movement, Ali Hasan Khalil, the minister of finance, and Hussein Khalil, the deputy political chief of Hezbollah, talked about the number of the upcoming cabinet ministers. He said that he, through against his will, accepts 20 ministers for the cabinet if this provides a solution to the crisis in the country.
The candidate had talked about the number of cabinet ministers with Aoun before his meeting with Frangieh and other political figures. Aoun emphasized on forming a 20-member cabinet.
Despite his lines that some politicians say have toughened the way towards a new government, he appears to be open to negotiations with all of the political factions who wish to cooperate with him. He even walked back from some of his lines in a show of compromises. But he faces big problems making it difficult for him to form a cabinet.
Challenges Diab is facing
Hariri-led Future Movement and some religious institutions, as well as sources close to Dar al-Fatwa, have noted that they will not take part in Diab’s government because the majority March 8 Alliance nominated him for the post.
Earlier, Beirut-based Al-Sharq newspaper had quoted Hariri as saying that he would not support Diab and the Future Alliance that has 18 members of parliament will not give him the vote of confidence.
Hariri, who served as PM for two terms, is afraid to see Diab launch a campaign of massive administrative changes and purge many of his supporters in the state institutions. He is also afraid that his wide range of friends, from businessmen to political and civil activists, could lean to Diab and under such a situation Hezbollah and Amal Movement broaden their influence. That is why Hariri is mobilizing his sources in an effort to set up roadblocks ahead of Diab-led cabinet formation efforts.
Hariri more than any other body counts on the help of ex-PMs like Fouad Siniora, Najib Mikati, and Tammam Salam, all have expressed positions supportive of him while rejecting Diab. He also banks on Abdul Latif Deryan, the Grand Mufti of the Sunnis in Lebanon, who earlier had supported Hariri’s candidacy and has so far rejected a meeting with Diab.
The Sunni body of the demonstrations who does not find Diab as the embodiment of the Sunnis and think that his government will mainly support the Shiites and Christians are another pressure tool Hariri is holding.
Hariri also sets his eyes on supports by Progressive Socialist Party led by Walid Jumblatt and the Lebanese Forces led by Sami Geagea. Though the two said they will give Diab a chance to make an effort, their parliamentary blocs have not supported him and announced they would not join his government.
While Hariri claims others are making accusations against him and several times insisted on technocratic cabinet ministers, his investment on street forces to block Diab cabinet formation is obvious. His supporters openly block the roads and set fire into banks and public places.
Beside these blockades ahead of Diab, he also had disagreements with March 8 Alliance, disagreements related to the nature of the upcoming government. March 8 Alliance believes that with regard to the regional conditions, a “techno-political” government is what Lebanon needs. This goes against Diab insistence on a purely technocratic government. The Alliance’s good faith in Diab and his openness to compromises to end the limbo, it seems that this challenge is not that much serious.
Therefore, the biggest hurdle ahead of Diab is not only the March 14 Alliance’s lack of willingness to work with the PM post candidate but also the hindrances set up by the March 14 allies who see to return to power.
Despite the difficult way to a new cabinet, if Diab solves his problems— which seems likely— his chance of forming a government and winning the vote of confidence is high as his advocates’ parliamentary weight suggests. Wide support does not guarantee his stay in the post, however, as this is a matter largely depending on his performance.
