Alwaght- These days Afghanistan is grappling with increasing violence. Last week, Sar-e Pol province in north of the country witnessed one of the most appalling massacres as the local officials said Taliban insurgents executed some 50 civilians who were taken hostage in Mirza Ulang village of the province.
Many sides deemed the execution as amounting to a war crime. But Mirza Ulang killing is not the only terrorist crime in Afghanistan’s serial tragedies. During the past three months at least 20 small and big blasts ripped through different parts of the war-ravaged country, highlighting the fact that there is no end in sight to the waves of tension and insecurity.
The state of instability raises a seemingly permanent question: Why is Afghanistan insecure?
Ethno-sectarian geography of insecurity
Among the other parts of the country, the north these days suffers the most from escalation of tensions and clashes. The main source of tensions in the northern parts derives from shift of strategy of the anti-government militant groups that now expand their range of attacks from east and south to north. This is, in part, influenced by a more intact and stronger ethnic structure in north.
Ethnic factors can be easily witnessed shaping the power and political structures in Afghanistan. The fact that President Ashraf Ghani is from southern Afghanistan and the Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah is from northern Afghanistan signals the effects of ethic geography on Afghanistan’s power structure.
The power struggles between the President and Chief Executive that of course trigger conflicts between their supporters embolden the armed rebels to expand their areas of operation. Therefore, a significant part of the increasing insecurity in northern Afghanistan should be blamed on the rifts between the heads of state, one representing the north and the other the south.
On the other side, due to its proximity to the central Asia, a potential safe haven of radical groups, Afghanistan’s north is susceptible to intrusion of ISIS terrorist group. In fact, penetration to north will facilitate the terrorist group’s toehold in the Central Asia. Therefore, Taliban and ISIS measures in northern Afghanistan make the region more insecure than other parts.
Weak government
16 years after Taliban-led government collapse Afghanistan has failed to build a government with full powers and a fixed area of governance. Deep ethno-sectarian chasms as an internal factor on the one hand and direct foreign military intervention on the other hand have so far stifled Kabul government’s quest for thorough clout that allows it exercise influence. Unlike the current president, the former President Hamid Karzai relatively succeeded in ridding his government of enfeebling sectarian barriers but he had ahead of him the foreign actors that precluded him from reinforcing his administration in front of strong insurgency.
Beside the foreign factors as a weakening legacy for the Afghan government, the present Kabul administration is plagued by wide sectarian gaps and strong tribal rifts. Disputes that followed the 2014 presidential election between the leading candidates Ashraf and Abdullah gave a picture of how sectarian encounter can intensify. Divisions inside the government lay bare the fact that parties have no intention to set aside sectarian rifts at least on official levels of power.
The foreign actors prefer to see weak government ruling Afghanistan. Pakistan is the biggest foreign actor on the Afghanistan scene, with aims to check Indian and even American influence and expand proxy military presence.
A crippled government in the country is incapable of quashing increasing insecurity even partially in some provinces, let alone restoring stability to the whole country. The exchange of control of cities between the army forces and the rebels following clashes indicates that the government is too weak to lonely take on the militants that are spread across the country. The Mirza Ulang massacre took place on August 7 after government forces' defeat and retreat. Locals said that the government declined to send reinforcements following the tragedy.
Foreign intervention
Chasing the foreign roots of instability in Afghanistan leads to the strategic view of terrorism by the neighbors as well as regional and international powers. Pakistan observes Afghanistan as a major playground for its strategic game, especially that it receives major financial aids from the international community for its purported fight against terrorism.
On the other side, India views Afghanistan as a major rivalry stage as it struggles to beat Pakistan there. It spares no efforts to fuel competition with Islamabad.
Still another destabilizing issue is the revision of global approach to terrorism in Afghanistan. After ISIS emergence, some foreign players became more inclined to recognize Taliban as a political entity in Afghanistan if the rebel group accepts to counter ISIS there.
Inviting Taliban representatives to some regional conferences is indicative of the fact that fighting the insurgent group is no longer a serious matter and a priority for the foreign sides who originally deployed forces to Afghanistan to tackle Taliban. While Taliban has withdrawn from peace talks with Kabul, foreign sides' negotiations with the militant group will only strengthen insurgency and will unleash further destabilization of the state. Foreign efforts to open channels with Taliban come while some reports maintained that the Mirza Ulang massacre was a joint work of a coalition of ISIS and Taliban. This reveals that Taliban is as threatening as ISIS to the war-torn nation.
