Alwaght- After long years in the history of modern Iraq- after 1991- the Kurds of Iraq for the first time in 1991 took the attention of the world community, and formed their autonomic government in northern Iraq under support of US-led international coalition.
Following 1991, they more than any other time attracted the global awareness on their cause. The Iraqi post-2003 developments have sped up the process of recognition of Iraq’s Kurdistan region.
Following US invasion of Iraq and toppling Saddam Hussein in 2003, the Kurds were granted considerable privileges in Iraq. The borders of the Kurdish region with the mainland were recognized. The Kurdish language was approved as the second official language of Iraq. The Kurds secured a strong place in the politics and government of Iraq. Moreover, many of the constitution articles were in best interest of the Kurds, especially the Article 140 of constitution of Iraq that allows for full autonomy referendum and states that before the referendum is carried out, measures should be taken to reverse the Arabization policy employed by the Saddam Hussein’s regime. All these concessions have largely shored up the Kurdish political weight in the country.
Following rise of ISIS terror group in Iraq in 2014, the Kurds seized the opportunity and added to their strength as the central Iraqi government showed increasing weakness. After seizure of Iraq’s Al Anbar, Mosul, Salahaddin, Kirkuk and some parts of Diyala province by ISIS’ terrorists, the Kurdish forces made advances towards their claimed border lines in the disputed areas also mentioned in Article 140, consolidating their power in the country.
The rifts between the leaders of the central government and Kurdistan region on the budget and other financial cases have brought the tension to its climax. Finally, the Kurdish local government has decided in 2015 to sell the oil from the region independent from the central government of Iraq and Iraq’s State Organization for Marketing of Oil (SOMO), cutting off the last cords of dependence to Baghdad.
As a result of these conditions, the major discussion that was always followed seriously in Kurdistan region is the full autonomy of the Kurdish region and establishment of an independent state of Kurdistan.
Without doubt, the necessity of independence from Iraq and establishing an independent Kurdistan have always been an emphasis of all of the Kurdish political factions during the past decades and years. However, in the present conditions, the region’s political community and parties are divided in two major camps. First camp finds the current situation in Iraq as very suitable to announce independence from Baghdad while the second camp argues that the time is not good to start the independence process. The most significant reasonings of the anti-Kurdistan independence group are as follows:
- Existence of serious tensions between the political factions of Kurdistan region. This group highlights the essential divides inside the region, specifically between the Kurdistan Democratic Party, led by the region’s President Masooud Barzani, and the Gorran Movement, headed by Nawshirwan Mustafa. It believes that as long as the political community of Kurdistan is not united, there is no way to move towards independence.
- Financial dependence to Iraq. The second factor cited by the anti-independence group is the lack of an independent fiscal system for the Kurdish region. Actually, other than oil sales, Kurdistan has no revenue sources. Should Turkey decides to block the region’s oil sales, Erbil very soon runs out of cash. They argue that Kurdistan should remain within the body of Iraq until it makes sure that it has guaranteed income sources.
- Regional powers are against Kurdistan’s independence. Another reason given for opposition to independence is that the regional powers fail to support- and even they oppose- any talk of an independent Kurdistan state. The focus is majorly on Turkey, Iran and the Arab countries like Saudi Arabia and Egypt. They argue that the Kurds to press ahead with bid for independence would need, at least, support of Iran or Turkey, because once food and economic sanctions are imposed on an independent Kurdistan, it is impossible to continue governing an independent state.
- There is no International will to back independence. The last reasoning of the anti-independence group is that the international powers like the US, Russia and the EU do not support the independence bid for now. The Kurds are well aware that Washington presently does not favor split of Iraq and so has no independence plan for Kurdistan region.
On the opposite side, the pro-Kurdistan independence groups have their own different reasonings, including:
- The West Asian crisis and wide-ranging Iraq instability. The pro-independence groups argue that the current West Asia and Iraq circumstances present a historic opportunity for the Kurds to announce independence. Once they miss the chance now, their independence could be delayed to an uncertain time. The supporters of the idea believe that due to chaos in Iraq and the region, the emergence of ISIS terror organization and the Kurds’ historic resistance and triumphs in their battle against ISIS, the Kurdish cause more than any other time has grabbed attention of the global community. If even partial calm returns to region, they argue, the world powers never support independence of the Kurds, because in peace, any Kurdish attempt to gain independence would appear to be an effort to destabilize the region and so it faces opposition.
- Unity of the internal Kurdish parties is not integral to announce independence. According to them, it is necessary that the Kurdish factions seek union to support the bid for independence, but this is never an absolute need. The holders of the idea note that no nation was fully united before forming an independent state, as there have always been anti-independence sides.
- The regional conditions have never been supportive of Kurdish independence and they surely would never be. According to the pro-independence Kurds, during the whole contemporary history of the region and after Treaty of Lausanne- signed in 1923 between the Ottoman Empire and allied European powers- there existed no consensus among the powers to support an independent Kurdish state, and it would not exist in the future. Therefore, now is the best time to achieve the ultimate Kurdish goal while the West Asia is grappling with a large scale of crises.
- The international will is not fully against an independent Kurdish state. The supporters of the idea, especially inside Kurdistan region, argue that several countries are now ready to recognize an independent Kurdistan. Moreover, they add that such countries as the US and Germany, too, after announcement of independence of Kurdistan would come to terms with the reality and so recognize the Kurds’ independent country.
- Financial independence is not the crucial condition of state independence. They also note that many of the states that were born from the borders of modern countries were not founded because they enjoyed appropriate economic grounds, rather, they improved their economic infrastructure after the independence process. In many historical cases, a developed economy impeded the independence. They give example of Scotland and Spain’s Catalonia which due to their developed fiscal systems as well as massive investment not only have failed to gain independence but also many investors, to secure their own interests, insist on their opposition to the idea of independence.
These were the ideas of pro and anti-independence Kurds. The fact is that in the history of West Asia it is the incidents that shape the political equations. So, the Kurdish cause and independence are tied to the future happenings.
