Alwaght- Syria developments have provided a proper opportunity for resurgence and power gain of ISIS terrorist group in Iraq, raising worries about activities of this takfiri group.
Over the past few days Iraqi officials have expressed their concerns about reports about ISIS restoring its power and possibly its leaders escaping the prisons in eastern Syria.
Mahmoud al-Hayani, an official at the Badr Organization of Iraq, announced on Monday that ISIS members have changed their methods and are recruiting terrorists from Iraq online.
Al-Hayani added that ISIS graffiti and flags were seen in Fallujah a few days ago, and security forces arrested terrorist elements in connection with these moves. “There are serious concerns about the rise of ISIS sleeper cells,” al-Hayani added.
Ahmed al-Musawi, a member of the Iraqi parliament’s Security and Defense Committee, confirmed that “ISIS’s military aspect has ended, but its sleeper cells are still present in certain areas that it has chosen as safe havens and starting points for its fresh activities.”
ISIS is still present in Iraq, and its members are estimated between 3,000 and 5,000, the majority of whom are Iraqis. Given that Iraq has faced a wave of political and security challenges in recent years, this issue paves the way for this Takfiri group to rise again.
According to Iraqi experts, ISIS elements operate linearly in the form of separate groups and are mostly concentrated in desert areas, especially in the Al-Jazira region in the north and west of Anbar province and in areas between Nineveh and Salahuddin, especially in the valleys and caves of the Hamrin Mountains that connect the four provinces, as well as the Makhoul Mountains in the southeast of Nineveh.
These activities pose a serious threat to the stability of Iraq, prompting the security forces to adopt various strategies to confront this terrorist group, one of the pillars of which is carrying out preventive operations to thwart ISIS plans using accurate intelligence penetration.
Government measures to counter ISIS
The Iraqis, who have not forgotten the bitter experience of the ISIS seizure of their territory from 2014 to 2017, are not surprised by this terrorist group this time and are trying to nip its actions in the bud before it starts its rejuvenated campaign to destabilize the country again.
In this regard, the Iraqi security forces, with the participation of the air force, conducted a heliborne operation in the Al-Rutba desert in western Anbar on Sunday.
This operation was carried out after receiving detailed information about the existence of secret tunnels of the ISIS terrorist organization and the storage of weapons and explosives inside them. During the operation, at least 9 ISIS hideouts were discovered and destroyed.
The Iraqi Counter-Terrorism Service (CTS) announced on Monday that it killed 7 ISIS terrorist fighters in the border areas between the provinces of Salahuddin, Kirkuk and Diyala.
The CTS held that in this operation, it destroyed 22 terrorist shelters and 5 tunnels and seized large amounts of explosives and suicide belts.
After receiving detailed information about the presence of ISIS elements in the Hamrin Mountains, security and military forces launched a large-scale operation, during which they clashed with ISIS terrorist elements. According to the announcement of this Iraqi military and security institution, its soldier named Mahdi Hamed forces in Kirkuk province was killed in these clashes, according to officials of the service.
The recent operations were just part of dozens of operations carried out in the past year to neutralize ISIS threats.
Sabah al-Numan, the official spokesman for the CTS, emphasized in an interview with Al-Hurra news on Monday: “The agency carried out about 341 security operations in 2024, during which 84 ISIS members were killed and more than 100 others were arrested. 260 ISIS headquarters and guesthouses were also destroyed in various regions, including Anbar.”
The security forces, especially the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), are trying to obliterate all the cells and remnants of the ISIS and fill the security gaps in areas prone to insecurity.
Ahmed Fawaz al-Wutaifi, a representative of the Iraqi State of Law parliamentary coalition, stressed that the security forces and the PMF are ready to respond to any aggression against Iraqi sovereignty.
“Some countries have been involved in the developments related to Syria. Iraq's position is clear and it is protecting its borders shared with Syria. Iraq's borders are completely secure and no one can penetrate them. Security forces have taken all necessary measures to counter any border violations."
Distrust in assurances of Syria armed groups
The push by the Iraqi security forces to deter ISIS after assumption of power by the opposition in Syria has been stepped up. This is because some of the armed groups active in Syria have once cooperated with ISIS, it is likely that the ruling Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani paves the way for resurgence of ISIS.
For this reason, the Iraqi security delegation headed by the country's intelligence chief recently visited Damascus to remind the new Syrian rulers of Iraq's security red lines.
However, the visit, instructed by Iraqi Prime Minister Muhammad Shia al-Sudani, has faced criticism at home.
According to Shafaq News, Yasser Watut, a member of the Parliament's Security and Defense Commission, stated on Monday that the trip to Damascus of the Iraqi delegation headed by Hamid al-Shatri was to serve national security, but its results are still uncertain.
"We do not know what Al-Sharaa's response was to the important points raised regarding Iraq's national security," he said using the original name of al-Jolani.
He added: "This ambiguity will lead us to submit an official request to host Hamid Al-Shatri in the parliament in order to know the details of this visit, the issues raised during it, and Al-Sharaa's responses. It is impossible to remain in this ambiguity without knowing the outcome of this important trip."
This comes as leaders of the ruling Shiite Coordination Framework (SCF) in Iraq and political analysts believe that Baghdad officials need to be conservative about interaction with al-Jolani and the HTS as the new rulers of Syria are yet to adopt an approach on the security of the Syria-Iraq borders.
Since al-Jolani at the beginning of the Syrian war was one of ISIS leaders and had a legal case in Iraq, Iraqi parliamentarians still look at the HTS with doubt.
In the viewpoint of Iraqi observers, there will be a reconciliation between ISIS and the HTS factions, and thus there will be an official terrorist force in Iraq's neighborhood with a different name, posing a serious threat to the security of this country.
This concern of Iraqis increases as in the past three weeks they have seen that, contrary to al-Jolani's promises commitment to laws, the groups under his command have proven that there is no change in the thoughts and ideology of them, and for this reason, Iraqis cannot trust the leaders of the HTS until the political and security situation in Syria becomes clearer.
Ahmed al-Musawi believes that the current situation in Syria may give ISIS an ego boost in Iraq, and although Baghdad has substantial strength and is capable of confronting any threat, the danger from the Syrian factions still stands.
Is ISIS threat serious?
Although ISIS activities in Syria have not amounted yet to a level of a security threat, given the group's record of seizure of Iraqi territory, if the Iraqi security forces procrastinate, it is not unlikely Iraq meets again the bitter days of ISIS rise.
Iraqi military expert Abdul Razaq al-Jubouri told Al-Hurra that "the threat from this organization is currently minor and under control, but if the situation in eastern Syria worsens under certain scenarios, especially if ISIS elements who are in the prisons of the Syrian Democratic Forces in eastern Syria are released, they may go to the desert to rebuild their power, which will be a serious threat and will provoke ISIS sleeper cells in Iraq that are seeking revenge against the central government."
"Another factor that contributes to ISIS's resurgence is the exploitation of this terrorist group by some foreign actors to undermine Iraqi security. Accordingly, some parties, due to their political interests, do not allow the formation of a professional and powerful army for Iraq to permanently get rid of terrorist groups," added the military expert.
Iraq needs international help to counter terrorist groups that pose serious threes also to the international peace and security. However, during ISIS activities from 2014 to 2017, the US,despite its showy anti-terror coalition, was backing ISIS against Iraqi forces and when ISIS leaders were encircled, the American helicopters carried them to safety. There are even report of the US forces airdropping weapons to ISIS terrorists.
Alla al-Nashoo, an Iraqi security expert, commented on the broken ranks and organizational weaknesses of ISIS in an interview with Eram News, saying that ISIS has ended as a street and field force and cannot carry out any qualitative and preventive operations that would change the balance of power in its favor, because most of its bases and growth centers have been destroyed and its forces lack morale and have been shaken from within.
Safa al-Assam, another Iraqi security expert, told Al-Hurra that Iraq has the power for effectively fighting ISIS and neutralizing its plots, especially that the various types of security services in this country have gained a lot of experience in fighting ISIS and dismantling its nuclei and are now adopting advanced military strategies in the fight against ISIS. But in order to close the case of this terrorist group once and for all, Iraq needs regional and international supports, among them financial assistance."
Despite ISIS underground activities and push for reorganization, the powerful PMF as the guarantor of the country's security will not allow terrorists to seize territory anew, and even if Syrian armed rebels provide them logistics, terrorists will not make gains.
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