Alwaght- After trips of senior officials of regional countries to Tehran, this time it was India’s turn to discuss boosting ties with Iran. To this end, Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyan Jaishankar arrived on Sunday in Tehran for a two-day visit. In a statement published by Indian government, New Delhi said that he will talk to his Iranian counterpart about bilateral ties and regional and international matters. He also met the Iranian President Seyyed Ibrahim Raisi.
Although Indian sources have mentioned his presence in Tehran as a pre-planned trip, it seems that Jaishankar’s trip was a surprise one and related to the recent developments in West Asia region.
Bilateral economic cooperation
The security and political changes that have occurred in the world in the last two years have motivated the leading countries in the economic field to engage in regional cooperation. The emerging powers of the East, which are preparing themselves to become top global powers in the new world order, look at the role and position of Iran as a springboard in this direction. They are actually trying to expand their relations with Tehran, and meanwhile the ‘pivot to the East’ strategy of the government of Preside Sayyed Ibrahim Raisi of Iran adds to the Iranian attraction to the Asian powers. The development of relations between Iran and India in recent years is indicative of the fact that New Delhi is trying to bolster its relations with the Islamic Republic in all areas. As some Indian media outlets have pointed out, bilateral economic cooperation between Tehran and New Delhi was one of top goals of this trip.
The trade between Iran and India has substantially taken damage after the withdrawal of the US from the nuclear deal with Iran, officially called JCPOA, in May 2018. However, the Indian media have expressed hope that this situation will return to normal. Before the US sanctions, India was the second largest purchaser of Iranian oil and in 2018-19, its total imports from Iran were $13.52 billion and exports were $3.51 billion. If oil imports are resumed, trade is expected to surge again.
In recent decade, New Delhi has been eyeing Iran’s railway routes to enter the Eurasian markets, and this provided the motivation to invest in Chabahar port of Iran to accelerate the trade process with Iran and Central Asian republics.
In 2015, India struck a deal with Iran on development of Chabahar port and the construction of a railway that connects India to Afghanistan, and in 2016, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, during his visit to Iran, signed a $500 million investment agreement for development of the southern Iranian port. Earlier, the Indian Foreign Minister had suggested that Chabahar port should be located on the way of the North-South Corridor in order to provide safe and unhindered access to the sea for Central Asian countries. He also welcomed the plan of the task force of India, Iran, Afghanistan, and Uzbekistan for using Chabahar port.
FM Jaishankar had said that via Chabahar, India not only gets access to the Central Asia, but also it is likely to access Russia.
“We can reach Russia through northern Iran and today it is important to create access routes for the good of diplomacy and economic relations,” he said.
Being under pressure of American sanctions, India has done little to develop trade through Chabahar port, but New Delhi’s investment in this strategic Iranian port will not only contribute to economic growth and prosperity in Iran, but also accelerate the process of regional trade with Central Asian countries.
Despite foreign restrictions, the bilateral trade is gaining pace, especially under President Raisi. The interim head of the Iran Trade Development Organization in June said that the trade relations between Tehran and Delhi touched $5 billion in 2022.
“The import tariff of some products to India is zero for some countries, which has caused these countries to buy Iranian products and export them to India under their name,” he said.
Stating that India is one of Iran’s priorities in establishing trade relations, he said: “Trade Development Organization’s approach in relation to the development of trade relations with this country focuses on increasing the export of commodities and focusing on the export of technical and engineering services.”
Indian Ministry of Commerce and Industry in September reported $1 billion worth of trade with Iran in the first half of 2023, announcing that Iranian exports to India grew 5 percent in this period.
Hadi Talebian Moghadam, the director general of the Indian Subcontinent at the Trade Development Organization of Iran, had earlier said: “The volume of trade between Iran and India is expected to increase between 18 and 20 percent at the end of 2024, and with the continuation of this trend, in the first quarter of 2025, it will pass $7 billion.” In the first 5 months of the Persian year (from March to August 2023), the exports to India were $845 million, and the imports were $813 million, showing a positive trade balance of more than $30 million, according to Talebian Moghadam.
In addition to bilateral trade, India and Iran have taken effective steps to develop trade with some countries in the region. In May of 2023, in a tripartite meeting with Iranian and Armenian officials, Indian officials agreed on the construction of the Indian Ocean rail corridor to the Black Sea in order to develop their trade routes in the future. India is one of the emerging economies, and in order to overtake its Chinese competitor, it is trying to develop rail corridors with the countries of the region and to boost trade with other regions, including Europe.
Tehran-New Delhi partnership in security, economic, and political areas is not new, and actually the two sides have common interests and in many regional areas are considered strategic partners. The membership of India and Iran in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is effective in the development of their bilateral and multilateral economic relations, and both sides can improve their relations within the framework of this organization and be effective in the development of trade relations in the region. Also, the two countries are members of the BRICS, which has taken great steps to develop relations among its members. India and Iran can play an effective role in this economic bloc due to their important position in the energy and economic fields in the world.
Afghanistan security case is also one of the common concerns of the two countries. Over the past years, they have held several meetings to help restore security and stability to this neighbor, because as long as terrorism poses a serious threat in Afghanistan, security and trade will face a serious challenge, and this is highly risky for the Indians who are working to improve their international position.
Carrying Western message for Red Sea de-escalation
The trip to Tehran is also related to ongoing tensions in the Red Sea that are endangering the security of navigation in this sea. New Delhi, which does a large part of its maritime business through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal with Africa and Europe, has taken damage more than others from the security tensions in the Red Sea, and therefore intends to restore stability and security with the help of Tehran to ensure the safety of its ships crossing this sea.
Hassan Hanizadeh, an Iranian political expert, was asked about goals of the Indian FM. He told Alwaght: “Due to the conditions overshadowing the Red Sea and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, it seems that the Indian Foreign Minister is carrying a message from the United States and England to Iran. This strategic area actually connects several continents and is considered the world’s commercial center of gravity. Red Sea, the Arabian Sea, and the Indian Ocean are of great importance for both East and West Asian countries as well as Western countries in terms of shipping, trade, and energy, and the recent Ansarullah’s operation to deter Israel and help people of Gaza can, indeed, change the conditions of the region.”
Hanizadeh described the last week American and British attacks on Yemen “a mistake” compounding the developments of the Red Sea.
“If this situation of insecurity continues, shipping in the Red Sea will face a serious challenge and crisis. For this reason, there are a series of concerns, and the United States and England have realized their mistakes and asked India to mediate and provide conditions for Iran to use its influence to reduce tensions in the region. Therefore, this trip was important and regional issues and the crisis in Gaza and the Red Sea were its main agenda in talks with Iranian officials.
The Iranian political pundit underscored Iranian and Indian role in Red Sea and Indian Ocean stability, adding that “Iran has an obvious policy regarding Gaza crisis and it is end of slaughter in Gaza and declaration of a ceasefire. If this demand it met and bombardment on Gaza stops, regional problems will be settled to a large extent. But it does not seem that there is such an approach at present. Additionally, India is seeking to expand its relations with regional states, but its policy concerning Palestine issues is unclear. It on the one hand backs Israeli regime and on the other hand expects peace and stability in the region. This policy is contradictory. India should play a more positive role in settlement of regional disputes, and boosting ties with Israeli regime cannot help improve position of New Delhi in the region.
