Alwaght- Iraqi people held parliamentary election on 10 October 2021, and voted for the 329 members of the Council of Representatives who were due, in turn, to elect the president and confirm the prime minister. Bu, after 11 months, the Iraqi MPs have failed to elect a president and the country is on the verge of a civil conflict. The supporters of Muqtada Sadr, the powerful Iraqi cleric, who started peaceful protests two months ago to achieve their political goals, chose a different path after the announcement of their leader's withdrawal from politics. By storming government building and the headquarters of the security forces, Sadr's loyalists caused chaos in Baghdad and other Iraqi cities, and moved the nation to the brink of a civil war, but with the vigilance of Muqtada, and patience of Iraqi authorities and security forces, peace once again returned to the Arab country. Now the Iraqis have united to form the government as soon as possible and end the long-term political blockade, and for this reason, new initiatives have been proposed by the Iraqi leaders to pave the way for the election of President and Prime Minister.
In order to study political developments in Iraq, Alwaght has interviewed Hassan Hanizadeh, an expert on West Asian issues.
Question: Regarding Muqtada Sadr's statement announcement to resign from power, how do you predict Iraq's as well as Sadr movement's political future?
Muqtada, who is a member to influential Sadr family, has played a key role in Iraq's politics after the fall of the Baath regime in Iraq in 2003. He established "Jaysh al Mahdi" militia force and Saairun electoral alliance in a bid to take power in the country. However, Muqtada Sadr's aggressive, hasty and emotional behavior in recent weeks upset some leaders of political groups and factions in the parliament, and even the Iraqi authority expressed their concern about this behavior. During the past years, Sadr had shown contradictory behavior and in addition to his stances against the Iraqi government, he sometimes took stances against countries such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the US o pretend himself as an independent and powerful figure. In the Iraqi 2021 parliamentary elections Sadr's electoral alliance "Sauron" won 73 out of 329 seats , encouraging him to insisted on installing a government affiliated with his movement. However, he failed to make alliance with other parties to achieve majority needed to elect president and therefore continued his aggressive behavior. When Shiite's Coordination Framework, Mohammad Shia al-Sudani was nominated for Iraq's premiership, without Sauron's agreement, Sadr his allied MPs to resign which was followed by the his followers storming into parliament and government building.
Sadrists' protests continued until Muqtada suddenly announced that he would step down from power and politics. He has already announced 6 times his withdrawal from politics, but returned to power. Sadr's political movement al-Sauron consists of a collection of emotional youths, that with Sadr resignation is left without a leader. Sadr’s drastic step came after be in response to the resignation of Shiite spiritual leader Grand Ayatollah Kadhim al-Haeri, whom many of al-Sadr supporters follow. The Grand Ayatollah tacitly criticized Muqtada's unconstructive role in Iraqi political scene.
Question: Considering that Moqtada Sadr had announced many times in the past that he would withdraw from politics, but had returned again, is there a possibility that he will return to the political arena this time?
Muqtada Sadr recently announced in his statement that he will not return to power and also apologized to the people and in another statement asked his supporters to leave Baghdad's Green Zone, indicating that this time he is serious about leaving power, However, his movement's influential members may form a council in the future in order to remain in power. But it seems that the next government will try to dissolve this influential movement.
How do you evaluate the role of Iraqi religious authority in ending the recent riots?
Iraq's religious authority did not intend to directly interfere in the political issues, but considering the fact that Iraqis are getting ready for Arbaeen ritual, which sees millions of people gathering in holy city of Karbala, the religious authorities decided to intervene and put an end to this crisis. Therefore, the situation in Iraq has improved and stability has returned to this country, and Sadr's supporters have also evacuated the Green Zone and returned to their homes. It seems that due to the fact that the enemies of the Iraqi nation and the agents of the Baath Party have infiltrated the Sadrist movement, Iraq's religious authority voiced concerns to Muqtada not to play at the ground of nation's enemy.
Question: Given that Muqtada Sadr was the main obstacle to the formation of the government in Iraq, how his resignation will affect the process of forming the government and electing the prime minister be?
It seems that the ground is paved for the formation of a national unity government in Iraq, and Mohammad al-Sudani, who was previously nominated for the premiership, may be confirmed by members of Iraq's Council of Representatives. It is also possible that other figures will be nominated by political groups, but speculations indicate that due to the rational behavior of incumbent Iraqi premier Mustafa al-Kadhimi during recent crisis, there is a possibility that he will be reelected as the prime minister for another term.
How is the recent chaos in Iraq related to legal weaknesses, and can such events be prevented in the future by amending Constitution?
The electoral process and political structures in Iraq have problems, and Article 17 of the Iraqi Constitution, which is related to elections deciding about the prime minister and president, is ambiguous. Considering the current situation, it is possible that in future, changes are made in the constitution which needs time.
Considering that the US and its allies in the region failed to take advantage of the recent crisis in Iraq is it possible that they plot once again to make Iraq insecure?
Iraq has been involved in internal crises for nearly two decades, and part of these crises is due to the presence of elements affiliated with the Baath regime into rank of Iraq's power structure. Moreover, the US and region's reactionary Arab regimes, especially the UAE and Saudi Arabia, do not want a democratic system be established in Iraq and plot to continue insecurity and instability in the country.
