Alwaght- Several months after Lebanese parliamentary elections, a new cabinet is yet to be formed and amid ongoing differences by the rival political groups, uncertainty overshadows the country's future developments.
The government formation twist comes as the country with its teetering economy needs international aids, which are tied to forming a new cabinet. Also, the developments related to the border dispute with the Israeli regime over gas resources in the Mediterranean and Karish gas field have made the need for political groups to cooperate for a new government and counter the Israeli enforcement more urgent.
To get updates on Lebanon's developments, Alwaght arranged an interview with Mosaib Naeemi, a West Asia affairs analyst.
Alwaght: Although several months have gone since the elections, the political groups are yet to agree on a new cabinet. What are the main reasons and obstacles?
Naeemi: Having in mind that Lebanon has an internal political problem and some political factions are dependent on foreign countries, their influence did not allow the prime minister-designate to form a new government. The previous cabinet of Prime Minister Najib Mikati was not very active, and this factor prompted new elections. One problem is that some of groups, such as the Lebanese Forces, which are affiliated with foreign sides including Saudi Arabia, mainly oppose Hezbollah at the behest of foreigners and seek more shares from power, but this is not possible. The election results have given Hezbollah a greater share and the general framework of the Lebanese system emphasizes that Hezbollah is patriotic and impossible to sideline. Lebanon has to save its independence under any circumstances but this goal has not been reached yet. The prime minister himself is partly to blame in this regard because he did not have a serious and independent agenda and view. The president has to replace Mikati with another person if the latter does not present a suitable cabinet within two weeks. The constitution says that the prime minister should be a Sunni and this causes problems.
Another issue is the tensions that have occurred between Lebanon and the Israeli regime in recent months and the Lebanese push to secure their rights and Hezbollah warning of a response to the Israeli violations. The West is trying to put pressure on its proxies inside Lebanon in current situation to prevent the formation of a cabinet in which Hezbollah is central, though legally they cannot isolate Hezbollah because half of the parliament is in its favor, in addition to some independents who have no affiliation with the West.
Moreover, President Michel Aoun is nearing end of his term, and some figures are waiting for the end of this term and seeking a share in president post. They favor a power vacuum or imposing their candidates on the other parties. But this plan will not succeed.
The Lebanese politics are a setting for participation of all groups. Hezbollah and its March 8 Alliance said that individual rule in the country is impossible. However, some foreign countries have tasked some figures with causing political obstruction. Although they would not succeed, they will delay government formation for some time. At the end of the road, Lebanon must accept the fact that all ethnic groups must play a role in the management of the country, and Hezbollah emphasizes this issue more than others. Some people are trying to perpetuate this situation due to not having popular basis and not being able to influence the parliamentary elections. If this situation continues, Mikati will not work out a new cabinet, and perhaps a more independent PM can undo the current twsit.
Alwaght: It is said that Mikati is part of the problem and the obstacle to form a new government. What is his goal?
Naeemi: Mikati has some political considerations and is appeasing the Saudis and some forces linked to foreign powers and does not act independently and seriously. Miqati himself admits he uses all thoughts and ideas and Hezbollah toward a new government, but political and financial affiliations prevent him from making serious decisions. There are various issues to him. There are oppositions to him by Western-affiliated factions and Sunnis who believe his premiership undermined the position of Saad Hariri. There is a belief in the cabinet itself that Mikati is not capable of overcoming the crisis, and he has not taken any serious and effective actions during his service. He neither struck a deal with Israel on the demarcation of maritime borders, nor has he eased economic sanctions. On the other hand, he has not managed to gain the favor of some countries that claim to be ready to support Lebanon, especially the Arab countries. Still, the factions that oppose Mikati themselves do not have a suitable alternative to patch things up. Even now that tensions have arisen between Lebanon and Israel and Hezbollah believes that they should not allow the Israelis to abuse the negotiations, Mikati has not taken a serious position on this issue. Mikati must either accept the majority's demands and act and continue as prime minister or hand over the post to another person.
Alwaght: Aoun and Mikati met on Wednesday to discuss a new cabinet. What was the main agenda of their talks and how influential would be their outcomes on the decision of the political leaders for the government formation?
Naeemi: Aoun has given Mikati the last ultimatum for the formation of the cabinet. If Mikati fails, another person will be named and several other people are considered for this position and probably within the next week a new figure will be named.
Alwaght: Aoun said he will not run for new term after his current term ends. Who are the main replacements for Aoun? To what extent can differences on next president complicate the government formation process?
Naeemi: Certainly, he will not seek another term because no one can be a president more than four years. There are several replacements with popularity. Suleiman Frangieh who has political and struggle records is one option. Another option is Gebran Bassil, but there are problems as he is Aoun's son-in-law. The president post is a Christian share and the Christians make the final decision. There are other options and some parties are pushing to impose their own choices but Hezbollah disagrees.
The Lebanese have to finally find a mechanism to solve the political crisis and form a cabinet, because the continuation of this situation causes public despair. The only party that has proven its capability and honesty, and most people, and even Christians and Sunnis, have more confidence in it, is Hezbollah, which has played a major role in Lebanon's stability and peace. Some political groups are still trying to gain a position with the help of West, but it is unlikely they will achieve this goal.
Alwaght: How effective has been the vacuum caused by Hariri's political inactivity, which could unite the Sunni camp, in the current situation?
Naeemi: Hariri himself knew that after his foreign policy failures in the past, he lost his popularity among the majority of Sunnis, and his Future Movement could not meet the demands of the people, especially due to the political mistakes it made during the rise of ISIS terrorist group. Hariri was under the influence of Saudi Arabia and France, but these countries were disappointed that he could not sort up Lebanon's political affairs. Therefore, Hariri's absence has not been very effective in government formation and it only caused a split among the Sunnis because they had to appoint one of the Sunni personalities as the head of the Future Movement in the elections. When Hariri realized that he had failed and could not do anything, he left the political scene. It is said that political pressures were influential in Hariri's decision. After his detention in Saudi Arabia in 2017 while he was a prime minister, Hariri took offense and a fued emerged between him and Saudi Arabia. It was believed that he cannot establish friendly relations with Arab countries if he took the post. So, he left the political scene.
Alwaght: What initiatives have so far been proposed by political sides, especially Hezbollah, to exit from the stalemate?
Naeemi: Hezbollah believes that all sides should be involved in prime minister election and the political process and the top matter is the Lebanese national interests. Also, exit from the political crisis and securing Lebanon's gas rights in the face of the Israeli regime are significant, and any prime minister should undertake them. It does not matter for Hezbollah who will come next. The main framework for Hezbollah is one which helps bring back foreign capitals to the country and follow national interests. According to the constitution, the prime minister should present their plans and gain the lawmakers' favor before vote of confidence. So, they should follow national, and not partisan or individual, agenda.
