Alwaght- The unpredictable man of Iraqi politics Muqtada al-Sadr once again shocked the Iraq's society this time by asking his bloc's lawmakers in the parliament to resign. The decision comes as he earlier announced a plan to drop the bid to form a new government and instead play opposition role. But it seems that the departure from government formation was not enough for him and he decided to leave the newly-formed parliament.
Such a move essentially means his abandonment of the politics and governance in the country. But the question is how much is his total resignation from government and parliament believable?
Al-Sadr's measures: From raising national majority government bid to mass resignation
Since the early hours of October 10 election results announcement, al-Sadr outlined his plan to form a "national majority government" in alliance with the Kurds and Sunni Arabs. As part of the efforts, National Salvation alliance, consisting al-Sadr's party, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) led by Masoud Barzani, and the Sunni Sovereignty bloc led by Mohammed al-Halbousi and prominent businessman Khamis Khanjar, was announced on March 23 in a press conference by Hassan al-Adhari, the head of Sadrist Movement's parliamentary bloc.
Even before its official formation announcement, the coalition had succeeded in taking the first step in forming a new government by electing Mohammed al-Halbousi as speaker of parliament, but the second step failed as the quorum— the need for presence of two-third of the lawmakers in the president election session— was not realized at the parliamentary sessions of March 23 and 30. After the failure, al-Sadr issued a statement, giving the rival Shiite Coordination Framework (SCF) a 40-day deadline to form a government.
"For Iraq not to be without government and given the deteriorating security, economic, and service conditions, I give the one third that broke the quorum of the session with absence from the day one of Ramadan to day nine of Shawal to discuss a new government with other factions," said al-Sadr in a tweet, asking his bloc members not to intervene either positively or negatively.
But after the deadline ended on May 4, he presented an initiative to entrust the formation of a new government to at least 40 independent MPs out of a total of 329 in parliament. In his new plan, he urged the independents to form a new government within 15 days. He stressed that the tripartite coalition would vote for the government, but that the Sadrists would not join it.
After the two-week opportunity expired without government formation process advancing, the powerful Shiite cleric unveiled his third initiative: His parliamentary bloc shifting to opposition role. Admitting that he failed to form his favorable government, he said the only way left was playing opposition role. The opposition role would not last less than 30 days, he said, adding that it would be good to see the parliamentary blocs, including the SCF, forming government. Otherwise, he would make another decision.
In June 9, in a televised address he unveiled his next step. He said that if his bloc was thought to have made a blockade in front of a new government, its members of parliament would collectively step down.
"My dear ones, the representatives of the Sadr faction should write their resignations and submit them to the speaker of the parliament in the coming days, after being given orders," he said.
Following the remarks, all representatives of the al-Sadr faction, without exception, signed their resignations in his office in Najaf.
Now concerning his new surprise of mass resignation, two important theories are mentionable.
Parliament dissolution and early elections
The first theory is that by ordering resignation of his 73 representatives al-Sadr is preparing for dissolution of the fifth parliament and holding new elections. With resignation of 73, 256 MPs would remain. In such a situation, although the absolute majority, or the two-third, is present numerically in the parliament, this does not mean impossibility of the dissolution of the parliament.
According to Article 59 of the Iraqi constitution, the legal quorum for holding parliamentary sessions is a relative majority. According to the rule, the presence of 165 MPs is sufficient for the regularity of ordinary parliamentary sessions, but Article 64 of the constitution sets demand of the one-third of the MPs or the prime minister and with agreement of the president as a condition for the dissolution. Therefore, the al-Sadr bloc's resignation could not lead to the dissolution and to replace Sadr's representatives, the reserves of the October election should fill the vacancy.
Another aspect of the theory is that al-Sadr is seeking snap elections, which is highly unlikely. The reality is that in the politics, the victorious party seeking to save the status quo is relatively absolute and Sadrists are no exception with 73 seats as the leading bloc. In the past few months, it has been al-Sadr and his allies who opposed an early election. On the opposite side, the Coordination Framework called for new election. The Sadrists and their leader are well aware that in the event of any new elections, there is a possibility that their votes will fall. Therefore, preparing the conditions for holding new elections and dissolving the parliament cannot be a valid and strong theory about the goals behind the resignation of the Sadrists.
Double-crossing the rivals
The second theory is that al-Sadr still firmly stands on his opposition to a SCF-proposed national unity government with the presence of all political parties, especially the SCF. He went to great lengths with various initiatives in the past months to form his favorite cabinet. He also pushed for the necessary quorum for parliament session to elect a president appealing to the National Salvation alliance but ended up failing. The collective resignation seems to be his last shot to reach his preliminary demands.
Forcing his representatives to resign is more expressive of his new political game to sideline the SCF. The story of his resignations and returns is a threadbare game known to all parties and observers, with no chance of success.
Actually, departure not only cannot realize al-Sadr's demand for National majority government but also compounds the situation. Meanwhile, the mentionable point is that national unity government covering all parties is the only scenario that can offer a way out of the current stalemate.
