Alwaght- In the middle of mounting Israeli violence against the Palestinians in the occupied territories and while the waves of criticism hit the reactionary Arab leaders for their silence to the Israeli crimes, reports talk about further Israeli-Egyptian closeness over a deal to transfer Sanafir and Tiran islands to Saudi Arabia.
Tel Aviv and Cairo have agreed on new security measures to hand over control of the Red Sea islands of Tiran and Sanafir to Saudi Arabia, according to the Jerusalem Post. The Israeli newspaper further said that the agreement will be unveiled during US President Joe Biden's imminent visit to the region. Here are some questions: Why does the Israeli regime accept the security measures of the Egyptian Islands transfer to Saudi Arabia? What are the interests of the involved actors and what are their intentions?
Pre-normalization gift of the Israelis to bin Salman
The Israeli agreement to the transfer comes at a time when the issue of normalization of relations between Tel Aviv and Riyadh is gaining traction more and more. Saudi Arabia gave control of the two islands, which are gateways to the ports of Aqaba and Eilat, to Egypt in 1950. The islands later became civilian as part of the 1979 peace treaty between Tel Aviv and Cairo. According to the 1979 normalization, Tiran and Sanafir islands must be a civilian area with a US-led multinational observer force.
For decades, the two islands have been virtually controlled by multinational forces, until in 2017, when during the visit of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman a pact was signed with Cairo under which Riyadh agreed to provide Egypt $2 billion annual aids and 25 percent of the oil the latter needs. Despite widespread opposition and public protests, the Egyptian parliament in June 2017 and the Supreme Court in March 2018 approved the deal. However, the important point was that the implementation of such an agreement, according to the provisions of the 1979 accord, required the consent and approval of the Israeli regime.
The Israeli regime is seizing the tripartite negotiations with Saudi Arabia and Egypt as a great gift to the Saudis in return for normalization. Currently multinational forces are stationed in the islands to ensure continuation of freedom of navigation but Saudi Arabia is opposed to their presence and insists they must withdraw upon transfer process conclusion.
Washington-Riyadh reconciliation
Biden's push to gain credibility in foreign policy is another variable playing a role in the transfer of the two islands. After the Democrats came to power in 2021, the US government considerably increased pressure on Riyadh for bin Salman's crackdown on freedom of expression, repression of dissidents, and human rights abuses. The outcome was chill impacting their bilateral ties and halt of military and diplomatic support to the Arab kingdom.
But now, about a year and a half after the Biden administration came to power, due to the strategic needs of the US and the West for Saudi oil after the start of Russia's special military operation against Ukraine in February, the Americans seem to have begun a multi-faceted strategy. In the first place, Washington started de-escalating tensions through diplomatic contacts with the Saudis and sought to appease bin Salman. A clear symbol of this can be clearly seen in the US House delegation's meeting with Bin Salman on May 24, which apparently aimed to pave the way for Biden's expected June visit to the monarchy.
Also, the US intangibly abandoned the diplomatic pressures and arms ban on Saudi Arabia in exchange for Saudi Arabia filling the void caused by the sanctioned Russian oil. After recent OPEC Plus meeting, Riyadh said it is ready to pump more oil.
And, the Biden government intends to make up for its poor foreign policy performance by involvement in Tel Aviv-Riyadh normalization case. In his forthcoming meeting with bin Salman, Biden would possibly announce the Israeli agreement to transfer the islands, and will continue to play a mediating role by publicly announcing the normalization of relations between the two sides. The main goal of the Democrats and Biden is to advertise the case as a success mark in their foreign policy in the run-up to the midterm elections, set for November 8.
A set of goals are driving Bennet government's agreement to the transfer.
Buying credit for longer cabinet life: Although the Israeli leaders and media have repeatedly stressed the importance of the two islands of Tiran and Sanafir in Tel Aviv's defense strategies and countering any foreign threat, in the current situation, the Bennett government, which is on the verge of collapse, more than ever needs to present to public a foreign policy triumph to maintain the unity in the coalition cabinet. The announcement of a free trade agreement with the UAE in the past few days is one of the most important examples of this approach. In coming days, Bennett will try to gain credibility for his cabinet by announcing the agreement to islands deal, on the one hand, and give new breath to his government for a longer stay in the power on the other hand.
Giving bin Salman facility to justify normalization: The Israeli leaders believe that the gift of the transfer works out a great tool to legitimize the entry of bin Salman to normalized relations with Tel Aviv. They are clearly aware of the pressures and opposition to normalization within the Saudi society. Therefore, they intend to remove some of the pressure from the crown prince so that he can easily announce formal normalization.
Distracting the attention from Israeli crimes against the Palestinians: Another goal of the Israeli strategists is to divert media and political attention from Israeli crimes against Palestinian people in the occupied territories. Israeli atrocities in Al-Aqsa Mosque have prompted some lawmakers in Bennett’s coalition, such as left-wing parliamentarian Ghaida Rinawie Zoabi, to resign from the coalition cabinet. Therefore, the islands case seems to serve as a distraction tool.
Bin Salman dreaming of adding Tiran and Sanafir to Neom megaproject: From the beginning of entering the power structure, and especially after his appointment as the crown prince on June 21, 2017, prince Mohammed has presented and designed ambitious plans for his country. His main plan was presented on April 25, 2016, under Saudi Vision 2030 title. In the Vision 2030 document, he outlined his short-term plans to address the budget deficit by reducing staff salaries and increase women's freedom. The document emphasizes the participation of women in social life and increasing their participation in the labor market from 22 to 30 percent.
More importantly, we can refer to his plan to expand religious and non-religious entertainment under the Vision. Under "Red Sea project", hotels, resorts, luxurious entertainment centers, and coral islands are set for construction along 180 kilometres of the coast line.
Meanwhile, the face of the transformative strategy is the Neom megaproject which envisions Saudi embracement of a forerunner position in construction of future cities using new technologies. Neom project, set for development with state and private investments, covers Tiran and Sanafir islands in the Red Sea to Egypt. Actually, bin Salman plans to transform these islands into the center of his ambitions for commercializing the petrodollars.
