Alwaght- Within the next two weeks, on 3rd November 2020, the US elections will be taking place with Donald Trump as the Republican candidate on one side, and Joe Biden as the Democrat candidate on the other. The competition between the two parties will be at its peak. This event can be considered as the first time such tense competition takes place between the two major political parties within the history of the United States, leading to potential chaos and tension being created amongst them. On the one hand, Trump is pleased with the state of his recovery from coronavirus, performing among his supporters as if he is Superman and also insisting on the hypothesis of election fraud, on the other side of the story, there are Democratic nominee Joe Biden and his vice-presidential nominee, Kamala Harris, who have a clear performance lead in presidential debates by outdoing their rivals in pre-election polls.
In this breathtaking race, the American people are also unprecedentedly participating in postal voting, and all speculations suggest that in this election period we will see a record break in turnout through postal voting. However, there is also a more important issue at stake, which is the possibility of riots and civil unrest if Joe Biden wins on November 3rd.
Biden Leads National Presidential Polls
The incumbent president of the United States, Donald Trump, did not do well in his first presidential debate against Democratic nominee Joe Biden. By taking account the result of national presidential polls, we can clearly see that Donald Trump is failing. His coronavirus infection worsened his status and caused him to fall further behind in the polls. An increase in the number of Trump’s tweets in recent days shows that he is very concerned and worried about falling behind in the polls.
Recently, Reuters/Ipsos poll showed that Democratic nominee Joe Biden is leading in the State of Michigan, however in North Carolina the competition between the two candidates is very close.
According to this report, In Michigan, 51% of the voters expressed their support for Biden, and 43% for Trump. More than 51% have said Biden is a better nomination in order to overcome the COVID-19 pandemic, although 41% consider Trump as a more appropriate option for this matter. Some 47% of voters said Trump is a better option to run the economy, and 46% voted for Biden. In North Carolina, 48% of voters supported Biden, and 47% expressed support for Trump while 47% of poll participants said Biden was a better option to deal with the coronavirus, while 45% voted for Trump in concern of this issue. On the other hand, 52% have showed their support in favor of Trump as a better option to run the economy, while this figure is 42% in support of Biden.
Also, the latest polls and surveys conducted by the Opinium Research Institute for the British Newspaper the Guardian shows that Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is 17% ahead of Donald Trump, setting a new record. The results of the Guardian's most recent poll suggest that 57% of US voters said they would vote for Biden on Election Day, while only 40% have shown support for Trump. According to this report, the Guardian's 17% poll difference is higher than that of CNN's earlier report, in which Biden led by 16% of his total 57% support compared to Trump's 41% support.
Unprecedentedly Welcoming the Postal Voting System
Considering this election will be different regarding its voting system, we should take in account that the postal voting system means a significant number of votes will be received via mail. It is estimated that more than 80 million people will vote by post in this round of elections, setting a new record in the history of US presidential elections. According to US media reports, more than 12 million people have submitted their votes in early voting so far, which is considered a new record regarding this subject. The current US president Donald Trump has expressed skepticism about the postal voting system, and has claimed that the election results will be marred and rigged.
In the past, it was the elderly who mainly sent their votes by mail, which were largely classed as conservatives and pro-Republicans, but over the past years, the working class and those whom did not wish to take time off work used the postal voting system in order to participate in the elections. This group are mainly in favor of the Democratic Party. Many are in favor of the postal voting system due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Given that the majority of those who follow the coronavirus protocols and restrictions are pro-Democrats, the postal vote is likely to be more in favor of the Democratic nominee, however, supporters of Trump are more likely to vote in-person. Given the circumstances, Trump is now seriously seeking to deny the validity of online polls and accuse Democrats of committing organized fraud.
Concerns over Post-Election Period
Regardless of the postal voting system and the results of the polls, currently one of the most important issues that has dominated the American political community is the possibility of unrest and rebellion in the days following the election if Joe Biden wins. In fact, the possibility of a delay happening in the announcement of the postal votes has predisposed the ground for political tension in the US. Some even believe that if Trump loses the election, his extremist supporters whom are mainly also armed, will take to the streets.
The alleged kidnapping plot of Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, which was attempted by far-right groups just one month before the election is a good indication that the possibility of such violence must be taken seriously. Although the results of the in-person votes are approximately determined on election night and the following morning, the results of the US postal votes are usually delayed due to its time-consuming nature. For this reason, early results of the election are expected to change, and such an event could raise suspicion of fraud.
This is at a time when there are militia groups in the United States who are willing to take up arms to defend their principles and interests. Some of these groups are racist and are an advocate of “white supremacy”. On the other hand, there are armed black groups who also believe that they should fight back if suppressed. In 2016, the Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) published a report stating that in 2015, nearly 276 militia groups had been identified in the US. This figure was roughly 202 groups in 2014, an increase of 37% over a year. in 2008, the number of militia groups identified in the US was around 42, which has been on the rise ever since.
One of the militia groups that was founded in 2008 (which is still active to this day) is called the “Three Percenters”. The group is an extreme far-right American-Canadian militia movement that advocates weapons ownership and resistance to the US federal government's involvement in local and state affairs. Southern Poverty Law Center has described the group as an anti-government group. However, the group is now a fan of current US President Donald Trump. Not long ago the group's leader Chris Hill has said that the next 45 days (before the US presidential election) will be full of violence.
On November 4th when Trump wins, Democrats will go crazy and cities will burn, said the Three Percenters' leader. Regarding Biden's victory, he claimed some groups will rise up against Joe Biden's presidency, especially if it's a fraud allegation. In regard to this group, Britain’s Channel 4 has reported that if there is no clear winner on election night and neither of the candidates accepts defeat, these militia groups will probably take to the streets.
In response, Grand Master Jay, leader of the NFAC black militia group said there would be bloodshed... America will be a violent country. He also stated that they were the largest black coalition militia on the planet. There are about 432 million guns in the US right now, which means there are more guns in this country than the population, said the leader of the NFAC militia group. We answer power with power, he says. The preparedness of militia groups thru their military exercises, along with the existence of political inflammations in the US, has prepared the ground for the possibility of any internal crisis taking place. Therefore, developments in this country must be carefully followed and observed.
Overall, considering the position of the two groups, one a Biden supporter and the other a Trump supporter, indicates that there is a possibility of widespread and intense violence in the days following November 3rd, and that even federal police interference may not have much effect on curbing armed extremist groups.
