Alwaght- At a time Lebanon is grappling with intricate economic, security, and political challenges, it is holding fourth and the last phase of its municipal elections in the south amid brazen Israeli ceasefire violations.
While the Israeli occupation forces, by carrying out air and ground attacks, tried in an organized manner to disrupt the grounds for holding these elections and prevent popular turnout through intimidation, Lebanese citizens not only did not fear the threats and went to the polls, but also, by voting in favor of the pro-resistance lists, they secured one of the most important political victories for Hezbollah in the most sensitive circumstances.
This year’s municipal elections have become an event of importance beyond the local level. The victory of Hezbollah and its allies in these elections does not only mean taking over the management of urban and rural councils, but also is also a sign of the continuation of the popular legitimacy of the resistance and the failure of internal and external plans to weaken Hezbollah and allies.
A test for parliamentary elections
Municipal elections in Lebanon have always been a reflection of the political and social complexities that dominate the political landscape of the country.
After Lebanon gained independence in the mid-20th century, the first municipal elections were held in 1952. Eleven years later, voters were called on to turn out for the second municipal elections in 1963.
With the outbreak of the civil war in 1975, the Lebanese municipal councils fell into a deep slumber. Despite the six-year legal term limit for each term, the authorities had no choice but to repeatedly extend the previous term as the country was not prepared for the elections. This situation continued until 1998, when the government managed to hold elections for the first time since the end of the war.
In 2016, the last national municipal elections were held, and after a three-year extension period, the new government headed by President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam suddenly decided to stop the extension of the previous term and insist on holding elections, under the shadow of occasional attacks by the Israeli regime, a decision that was strongly influenced by the political intentions of the opponents of Hezbollah, as they hoped that as a result of the devastation caused by the Israeli regime's invasion and the martyrdom of Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah public support for the resistance, especially in the south, would drop, an evil dream shattered with a brilliant victory of Hezbollah.
The lead of Development and Loyalty lists
So far in the three phases of the elections, the Development and Loyalty lists affiliated with Hezbollah and its allies have secured the majority with 95 seats, including 43 municipalities in Nabatieh and 52 municipalities in the south.
The lists won overwhelmingly in Baalbek-Hermel, which is considered a traditional stronghold of Hezbollah and allied parties. The southern suburbs of Beirut (including Burj al-Barajneh, Ghabiri, Haret Harik) and southern Lebanon (including Tyre, Bint Jbeil, Marjayoun), which are predominantly Shiite areas where Hezbollah and the Amal Movement hold power, also remained under the control of the resistance camp. But the Hezbollah’s big achievement has been the success in the Mount Lebanon region (al-Shouf, Ba’idah, Qamatiyah, Kayfun), which is a mix of Druze and Christians, and Hezbollah has also been able to establish a presence in these areas with local coalitions.
Now, in the final phase of the race, the main regions that are set to witness heavy confrontation are two governorates.
First, Sidon, where four competing lists are present: the “Sidon Needs It, We Can Do It” list, headed by Omar Marjan, supported by Hezbollah and the Amal Movement; The "Together for Sidon" list led by Mustafa Hejazi, backed by the Future Movement, despite the movement's official announcement of boycotting the elections. Also, the "Pulse of the Country" list headed by Mohammad Dandashli, and finally the " Sidon is Worth It."
The second contention in the south is in the Christian region of Jezzine. Although the Christian Free Patriotic Movement and the Lebanese Forces have united on several lists, including Batroun (Jibran Bassil’s stronghold) and Beirut, the nature of the competition in Jezzine is different and two lists will compete against each other. The first list, “Your Municipality, Your Future,” is supported by the Lebanese Forces and the Kataeb Party (led by MP Sami Jamil). The second list, “Together for Jezzine,” is supported by the Free Patriotic Movement and Ibrahim Azar, a former MP affiliated with the Amal Movement.
This race is crucial for the Free Patriotic Movement, led by Gibran Bassil, because he is running, as he puts it, to “revive the flag” and restore his movement’s position in the Jezzine region after its defeat in the 2022 parliamentary elections. “We will correct the historical mistake that was made against Jezzine and its representation, and the Free Patriotic Movement was excluded from it, but the big correction will be done in 2026,” Bassil told the people of Jezzine. He emphasized that "Jezzine is and will remain (Michel) Aoun's stronghold, and we will prove this on Saturday."
Saving Hezbollah's social capital after war
After the recent war and the widespread attacks by the Israeli regime, the social capital of Hezbollah and its allies has become a serious challenge for analysts. Hezbollah’s domestic opponents, relying on external pressure and using media propaganda, made massive effort to induce a decline in the popularity of Hezbollah. These efforts particularly focused on disarming Hezbollah and separating it from its social context. However, the results of the municipal elections showed that the resistance still enjoys broad popular support and that Lebanese public opinion recognizes it not only as a military force, but also as a national factor and a service in the field of urban management. On the other hand, these elections were an opportunity to weigh and initially test the political parties and forces for the parliamentary elections next May, which promise a pivotal role for the resistance in the future government, and this, in turn, will have a significant impact on the way of interaction of the current government with Hezbollah.
Municipalities' decisive role in reconstruction and social rehabilitation
The significance of Hezbollah’s presence in the management of municipalities is doubled when we take into consideration the fundamental role of these institutions in the post-war reconstruction process. The enemies of the Hezbollah are deliberately trying to cut Hezbollah’s popularity among the people by exaggerating the reconstruction problems and suggesting the inefficiency of institutions close to Hezbollah. In these circumstances, control over municipalities allows Hezbollah to directly intervene in the process of rebuilding infrastructure, providing public services, and restoring the social fabric of the affected areas, and in this way, while responding to the urgent needs of the people, neutralize the enemy’s psychological warfare, especially since southern Lebanon has not yet fully emerged from the state of war and the bombing has not stopped, and about 50 border villages have been completely or partially destroyed and their residents displaced.
In this regard, Hezbollah Secretary-General Sheikh Naim Qassem, addressed the people of the south, saying: “This year’s municipal and mayoral elections are a challenge for stability, firmness of position, and adherence to the land and its development with its people, gardens, houses, and all means of life. All those who have bet on Israeli aggression are awaiting its results.” He continued: “We will not accept the continued occupation of even a single inch of our homeland by Israel. Your broad turnout in the municipal and council elections is part of the reconstruction effort that we will accompany with the elected municipalities and the Lebanese government, which must assume its responsibility.”
Hariri camp's walkout and gap in anti-Hezbollah front
One of the features of the recent elections is the dramatic drop in the turnout rate of the Sunnis, especially in regions seen as strongholds of the Future Movement. Saad Hariri’s walkout from the politics has created a serious leadership vacuum in the country's Sunni community, the results of which are clearly visible in these elections. Political Haririism remains the “dominant conscience” of the Sunnis, and no old or newly established group or party has inherited it, and amid the crisis of public trust among the Sunnis in parties backed by Saudi Arabia, it created the opportunity for independent candidates to achieve significant success in this period.
The factions opposed to Hezbollah were unable to form a coherent and attractive coalition for the Sunnis, and this failure is a symbol of their weak organization and structural inability to confront Hezbollah’s influence in the politics. An analysis of this situation shows that not only has the anti-Hezbollah front been weakened, but also a historic opportunity has been provided to consolidate the resistance discourse on a national scale.
Failure of foreign pressure project within election framework
Municipal elections of Lebanon have always had a geopolitical aspect beside their local aspect. Some actors like the US and Saudi Arabia were hopeful that they can strengthen anti-Hezbollah local alliances and undermine Hezbollah's social position through elections. But the failure of this project in the recent elections reflects the high level of public understanding of the country's real conditions and the rejection of foreign interference in national decision-making. Actually, Hezbollah managed to turn these elections into a stage for showcasing its executive power and social commitment.
Conclusion: Local elections, consolidating Hezbollah's national position
Hezbollah's victory in the municipal elections should be viewed as an achievement transcending local boundaries. This feat is a fresh highlight of popular legitimacy of Hezbollah, a practical response to the home and foreign pressure projects, and an effective step towards reconstruction of Lebanon from war damage. Now, Hezbollah has proven not only on the battleground but also in management and services that it is capable of responding to the needs of society. This reality seriously affects the country's political equations and further fortifies Hezbollah's position as a determining actor.
