Alwaght- These days, the Israeli regime is grappling with a wave of crisis and instability, making many analysts foresee important developments in the months to come. The controversial policies of the far-right cabinet of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which is just two-months-old, have drawn public anger, with hundreds of thousand taking to the streets every Saturday to protest proposed judicial reforms that would see the judiciary powers curtailed. The wave of internal tensions has advanced to an extent that Israeli leaders openly talk about a civil war and collapse from within, a prospect worrisome to the Western backers of Tel Aviv. Meanwhile, clashes of the Israeli settlers and forces with resistance groups not only have not winded down, but also are slated to boil over in the forthcoming holy month of Ramadan, something to darken the Israeli security crisis outlook. Alwaght talked to Seyyed Hadi Afghahi, an Iranian expert of West Asia affairs, asking him for elaboration on the ongoing crisis in the occupied territories.
Alwaght: Currently, Israeli regime is struggling with a political crisis, with hundreds of thousands of protestors taking to streets every Saturday for the third month to demonstrate against Netanyahu’s policies. Where do you think the Israeli political developments are heading amid Netanyahu-opposition clashes?
Afghahi: Until recently, the differences inside the Israeli governing body were party-related and political, but Netanyahu has created a situation in which the differences are fundamental. Netanyahu seeks to undermine the judiciary, strengthen his position, and empower the government, and this is a great danger to the Israeli governance system. Actually, the opposition and citizens do not approve of a person imposing his will on the governance system, and that is why the protests are expanding every day.
It seems that Netanyahu is resolved to implement his plan of restricting some of the judiciary Supreme Court powers relying on the 64-seat majority his coalition has in the Knesset, and this is because he wants to override any future court ruling convicting him in corruption cases. Therefore, the differences are serious and they are not about electons, majority, or minority, but about Netanyahu’s push to change the governance structure.
Now, the politicians are clashing and the opposition warns that if Netanyahu adopts the plan, he would create a fundamental gap within the Israeli governance. Now some Israeli pilots are not serving the air force in protest and many Israeli sociologists and theorists are talking about death of democracy. This is not about political differences and party interests; it is about a blow being dealt to the governance infrastructure. It remains to see how serious this issue is and how far Netanyahu will go in insisting on it, and how far the opposition will go to take down Netanyahu government. We should wait to see what happens next weeks. So far, the Supreme Court has opposed the reforms and even Israeli President Issac Herzog warned that the bill will result in Israeli breakdown.
Alwaght: How much is the opposition chance to take down Netanyahu’s government with protests?
Afghahi: Now the main point of focus is the two hardline ministers Itmar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich who have warned that if Netanyahu does not allow their proposed judicial overhaul to advance, they will step down. These two ministers seek realization of their radical goals, but Netanyahu has a separate path and seeks his own party interests. I think, in the end, the radicals cannot resist the massive protests of the opposition, who have threatened to use weapons. Even the army forces do not show up for their work, and Ben-Gvir threatens the military forces who rebelled should be tried and fired.
But the opposition are not sitting on their hands. A number of army commanders have asserted that if the hardliners face the protests with an iron fist, they will expand their protest domain. Now there are clashes underway not only in the politics, but also among the military figures. There is a sign the Israeli governance is sustaining a serious blow, and that is why American officials rushed to Tel Aviv to help start a dialogue and settle the differences for the good of Israeli existence. But the differences are too wide-ranging to be solved by the American mediation.
Alwaght: As you have mentioned, there are news about crisis and mutiny in the military. Having in mind that Israel is a security regime and relies on the army power and cohesion for security of the occupied territories, how do you see the impacts of crisis in armed forces?
Afghahi: The current political and security crisis in the occupied territories is unprecedented. Although they fought several wars against Arab countries, their crises were foreign, but now the war is inside Israel and not with Arabs and Palestinians. The Israeli pilots and flight attendants even refused to staff Netanyahu’s plane to Italy, and this disobedience is worrying for the Israeli regime, because now it is not a foreign war. Actually, the war has been dragged into the home of the Israelis.
Alwaght: The warning about collapse from within is repeatedly issued by the Israeli leaders. What is behind it?
Afghahi: There are several stages in this regard; the first stage, impairment and internal differences. The second stage, civil war. And the third stage, collapse. Now we are in the street protest and internal differences stage. If these differences are not settled and crisis continues, it would grow deeper. And if the security forces intend to crack down on the protests, the opposition would resort to force and violence, which could end up in war. In a war, there would be one winner. But will the victor save the Israeli regime or let it collapse? Given various reasons and historical, sociological, and psychological features of the Israelis, as well as the political and geopolitical characteristics of the occupied Palestine, the second scenario is more likely.
Alwaght: What is the Israeli scenario to escape these challenges?
Afghahi: For the time being, Netanyahu has a number of scenarios to save himself. One scenario is internal. He may decide to put down his opposition. He eventually gets a green light for that if he chooses. The second scenario is starting new clashes with Palestinian resistance groups in the Gaza Strip and West Bank. The situation in the West Bank is extremely strained as the Israeli forces raided Nablus and Jenin several times. So, this option is highly likely. The third scenario is attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities or Hezbollah sites to escape the challenges and argue to his political opponents that Tel Aviv is at war and they should settle their differences.
In recent days, the Israeli forces made moves on the border with Lebanon. The air force even recalled the reserve pilots, as Tel Aviv officials assume that Hezbollah seizes the opportunity caused by insecurity in the occupied territories to launch an attack. On the other side, the Americans are searching for a way to settle the nuclear deal stalemate, the IAEA chief Rafael Grossi gave promising news about Iran’s nuclear program, and the Board of Governors did not issue an anti-Iranian resolution. The Americans are concerned about Netanyahu’s military action against Iran’s nuclear sites, which many call self-harm, and try to prevent it. But Netanyahu believes that if he attacks Iran, his opposition would walk back from their protests and demands and help settle the current internal crisis for protection of security of the occupied territories.
