Alwaght- With a population of 250,000 and being the capital of Kunduz province, the age-old Afghan city of Kunduz over the past year was exchanged several times between the country’s security forces and the Taliban insurgents. In the very latest developments of this significant city which is located on northern gates of Afghanistan Taliban forces started a massive and all-out struggle to capture the city. The reports suggest the militant group earlier this week attacked Kunduz from four directions. The clashes were reported as taking place only 200 meters away from the city’s surroundings in the coast and coffeehouses regions.
The massive Taliban assaults are taking place a year after the militant group captured city only to lose it less than a week later. On September 28, 2015, Taliban launched a major offensive on the city of Kunduz from three sides and seized control of a large part of it. Three days later, the Afghanistan National Army forces backed by NATO’s air cover managed to take back many captured parts of the city from the militants. Over the past year the violence of the militant group kept going on. Last year’s capture of Kunduz was considered the biggest victory of Taliban in Afghanistan since the US-led international coalition attacked the country in 2001 and removed Taliban government.
It seems that Taliban’s recent assaults against the strategic Kunduz are the heaviest during the past few months that come with the aim of a final showdown by the insurgent group. Eyeing retaking the city, Taliban has brought the city under its mortar shelling and heavy shooting. Taliban’s spokesperson has posted on Twitter that the group so far seized control of four security forces’ posts. But a spokesman for Afghanistan police has denied reports circulated by the media about presence of Taliban in the downtown Kunduz, adding that militant fighters have taken shelters in the city’s outskirts as well as residential buildings. Although earlier claims by Taliban about fresh successes were deemed exaggerated, the important matter at the present time is Taliban’s unceasing struggles and putting pressures on other insurgent groups to reoccupy Kunduz.
Kunduz assault in the shadow of weak Afghan government
On the other side, the attack on Kunduz has come in coincidence with 11th International Conference on Afghanistan that is set for holding on October 4-5 in Brussels, Belgium. The conference is set to discuss ways to help the Afghans in a time of increasing violence in the country. The fresh Taliban attacks may affect the foreign aids to Afghanistan’s national unity government.
While the countries backing the central Afghan government have tied their aids delivery to President Ashraf Ghani government’s show of strong determination and more work to fight corruption and terrorism in the country, the deteriorating conditions in Kunduz lay bare a growing Afghan government’s weakness. When three months ago this important city was captured by Taliban forces for a couple of days after a string of attacks, the fall was said to be an outcome of a failure of the Afghanistan armed forces to respond to help calls. In that time, Hayatullah Amsaid, the governor of Khan Abad district in Kunduz, said that the district fell to Taliban because the security forces failed to come for help. He added that before fall of the district to the militant group, he several times applied for further help and deployment of forces but the central government and the top officials turned blind eyes to the demands. Anyway, it seems that the incidents of several months have failed to give lessons to Afghanistan’s central government. Actually, the ongoing weakness of the security forces at the present time once again heralds a full occupation of the city by Taliban.
Kunduz significance for Taliban
On the other side, Taliban pressures and daily struggle for capturing Kunduz over the past year have shown how important the city is for the group. As some analysts put it, Kunduz is the key of northern Afghanistan. Kunduz was a strong shield of Taliban in 1997. When in 2001 it accepted defeat and had to retreat, Kunduz was the last northern city that was abandoned by Taliban. Geographically, demographically, and socially, Kunduz is a decisive city for a Taliban that these days is marred by infighting and polarizations.
Kunduz: launching pad for Taliban’s internal and cross-border expansionism
Kunduz is neighbor to other four significant Afghan provinces including Balkh in the west. From north it expands to Tajikistan’s water borders. Additionally, the second Afghan port known as Shir Khan Bandar is located in north of Kunduz. The economic and administrative position of Kunduz in northeast have given it the title of being the economic hub of the country and so influencing other surrounding provinces. If Taliban manages to dominate Kunduz, this will mean that the group can in first step guarantee a toehold in the two neighboring provinces of Baghlan and Takhar. In next step, it will seek influence in Badakhshan and Balkh provinces. As for the third step, the militant group will bolster sway in Samangan, Jowzjan, Sar-e Pol, Faryab, and finally across northern provinces. Michel Goldman, a South Asia analyst at Woodrow Wilson Center, has said that in fact Kunduz battle is a very small part of a long story. He added that the story is that Taliban tries to hold a sway in a region that is geostrategically significant.
On the other side, Kunduz makes a special position for the militant group’s cross-border goals. The group as part of its ambitious plans seeks to expand influence out of the Afghan borders and actually other regions of the Central Asia. Ayoub Arvin, an Afghanistan affairs writer, in a report has quoted the military affairs expert Aminullah Habibi as saying that foreign fighters including Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan militant group are fighting beside Taliban in the contested Kunduz. As a result, Taliban’s easy access to the target regions inside and outside of Afghanistan through Kunduz has added to strategic value of the city in the eyes of Taliban’s militants.
Easy recruitment grounds for Taliban in Kunduz
Moreover, it is not because of its geographical position that Kunduz has turned into a pipe dream for the Taliban. The demographic and social conditions of the city help prepare the city to accept presence of Taliban compared to other provinces. Its remoteness from the center of the country as much as helped it gain a strategic position has delayed the human development Kunduz. The rural, agricultural, stockbreeding, and mostly illiterate community of Kunduz present a good target for recruitment by Taliban. This is an outstanding feature making Kunduz attractive for Taliban. According to a report by the BBC, of 990,000 population of Kunduz province, 740,000, namely 74 percent, are living in rural areas. The literacy rate of the residents of the province is less than 22 percent.
Additionally, the ethnic structure of Kunduz has always been in favor of Taliban. Kunduz ethnic groups include Pashtuns, Uzbeks, Tajiks, and Hazaras. But in addition to ethnic bonds of Taliban with the Pashtun people, opening and developing religious schools in Kunduz province has contributed to Taliban’s recruiting forces from other ethnic groups like the Tajiks and Turkmens.
Some sources including the Afghan ministry of education have reported that of 1,500 religious schools belonging to the ministry, at least 300 are operating all around Kunduz province. These official statistics do not include other unregistered local schools run by Taliban group. Expansion of activity of these schools in Kunduz in addition to beefing up takfirist inclinations in the province has facilitated Taliban’s recruitment processes there. Moreover, the increasing unemployment and below-20 population have made it easy for the militant group to enlist more Kunduz residents. According to estimations up to late 2015, Taliban made it in absorbing nearly 1,000 Kunduz residents in its body. Thereby, the fairly different social situation of Kunduz not only made grounds for recruitment by Taliban but also it set up a firm social base for the insurgent group in the province. It seems that these are the key reasons the militant group sets hope on capture of Kunduz.
In addition to the above-mentioned cases, seizing control of Kunduz is of importance in propagandistic terms. Dominating Kunduz with all of its features and geographical and demographic privileges could display a strong face of this wilting militant group that at least over the past year after declaring death of its leader Mullah Omar has been grappling with a leadership crisis as well as internal divides and splits. If there was a strong central government in the country, the multi-factioned Taliban could be terminated very soon. But now in the absence of a stable and powerful central Afghan government, it is the insurgents of Taliban that are prancing around in northeast Afghanistan.
