Alwaght- While prolonged war in Gaza and expansion of conflict range to the Red Sea are adding to the concerns about future of these developments and their turning into a source of crisis for maritime security and trade in one of the world’s most important global transit arteries, it seems that this issue causes division among the Western backers of the Israeli warmongering.
With the crisis heightening because of the US attacks on Yemen, Washington expects the European allies to join the American-led naval coalition, dubbed Guardian of Prosperity. However, the European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrel said that the bloc has no intention to send warships to the naval mission in the Red Sea.
According to Borrel, the EU is mulling a mission to the Red Sea, but its mission would be only for protection of the navigation.
“This bloc does not intend to escalate the conflict with the Yemeni army, we must do everything possible to ensure freedom of navigation, but at the same time avoid escalation,” senior European diplomat said.
Now the question is why the European bloc is avoiding escalation in the Red Sea? Are Brussels and Washington deeply divided over this case?
Energy crisis concerns
The most important issues causing European concerns over Red Sea crisis is energy. After Ukraine war in 2022 and the consequent halt of the Russian oil and gas supplies to the continent, which led to fuel price hikes, the European countries have been grappling with an energy crisis, and after two years, it has not come to terms with this self-made crisis.
Meanwhile, the European Union has increased its oil imports from West Asia as part of efforts to wean off Russian energy products and the EU’s dependence on oil transit through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. Therefore, now the Europeans do not want to deepen the energy crisis by getting involved in the Red Sea tensions, which is one of the hubs of energy transfer in the world.
The Persian Gulf Arab states have the largest oil and gas reserves in the world and play a major role in meeting the needs of Westerners. Currently, Qatar is one of the main suppliers of European gas, which exports liquefied gas through the Red Sea to the Mediterranean and Europe, and if the tensions in the Red Sea rage, the oil and gas flow will undergo disruptions.
The Prime Minister of Qatar sounded the alarm two weeks ago and warned that with the escalation of the crisis in the Red Sea, the export of LNG cargoes from this country will also be affected. Therefore, should tensions escalate in the Red Sea, European people and leaders should brace for higher energy costs, shipping delays, and expanded inflation leading to higher long-term interest rates,something that would once again bring millions of people to the streets across Europe as countries would face a new wave of economic and energy crisis.
Any disruption in the supply of oil and gas in the Red Sea will lead to an increase in energy prices in the world, and Europeans are highly worried about such prospects as they know the increase in the price of oil and gas in the world markets would play into hands of Russia, which can earn more from its energy sales. In the past two years, Westerners have tried hard to weaken their traditional rival Russia by blocking its investments in Europe and the US, as well as reducing energy revenues, but they have not achieved much success. But inflamed tensions in the Red Sea will provide a good opportunity for Russia to reverse the drop in its oil and gas income.
An increase in Russia’s income will mean an increase in the country’s military power and a decrease in its economic vulnerability against the West, which is dangerous for Europeans.
Also, the Europeans know that their military involvement in West Asia would broaden war possibility, which means they have to fight on two fronts. Unlike the US, European countries avoid expanding the war in West Asia and want the tensions between the resistance groups with the Israeli regime and the US to ease, because war spillover from Gaza to the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea, will bring forth a new crisis in the world, and the West will suffer more than others as an instigating force.
Disruption of trade route with East Asia and Indian Ocean
The Red Sea is the most important transportation route from Europe to East Asia and the Indian Ocean, and most of the trade of these countries with India and China is done through this route. The EU was China’s second most important trading partner in 2022, with bilateral trade amounting to $850 billion. Also, the European bloc is currently India’s third largest trading partner, and figures suggest that their trade volume was €120 billion ($130.2 billion) in 2022.
With this in mind, if the maritime trade from the Red Sea route is disrupted, the Europeans should think of alternative and more expensive routes such as South of Africa in order to continue their trade with the Indian Ocean and East Asia, which is what the Israeli ships have done in the past three months to stay safe from Ansarullah’s missile operations. The increase in trade costs in this situation will be costly for the EU members and they do not want to lose the route to the Red Sea with ill-considered actions and miscalculations.
Doubts about the US capabilities
Another issue that keeps the EU away from the Red Sea developments is the distrust in the American promise to contain Yemen’s Ansarullah Movement. By forming a naval coalition, the US claims that it can counter Ansarullah’s missile attacks, but the Europeans doubt Washington’s ability to guarantee security and peace in the Red Sea. The non-participation of countries such as France, Spain and Italy in the American-led coalition showed that the West has well understood about the realities on the ground in the region.
The Western countries know that now it is Ansarullah that has the upper hand and with complete control over this international waterway, it determines the rules of the game in this region, and the attacks of the US and England cannot force this movement to walk back from its stances. In the past two weeks, the American-British airstrikes on Yemen not only have made no achievements, but also made Ansarullah more resolved to strike the Israeli-Western front, and the missile attacks on the American warships bear witness to this fact.
The leaders of Ansarullah have repeatedly said that the primary target of their attacks is the Israeli regime and recently the US and England, and ships of other countries can easily and without any risk sail in the Red Sea and through Bab-el-Mandeb. Therefore, the Europeans do not want to fan the flames of war by entry to the American-Ansarullah conflict.
The Red Sea and the Suez Canal are among the world’s most strategic maritime trade routes, with approximately 15 percent of the world’s shipping traffic passing through them, but with the closure of these international waterways, commercial ships have to sail a longer distance by circumnavigating the Cape of Good Hope in the extreme south of Africa, which will be highly costly for the Western countries.
In this case, we can refer to the damages the Western economic giants have experienced in recent weeks. One example is the damage to Tesla, which announced that due to the auto parts flow disruption caused by transportation delays, it will stop its production in its Gigafactory in Berlin. Chinese-owned Swedish multinational company Volvo has suspended production at its plant in Ghent, Belgium, due to delays in parts deliveries. Therefore, if the tensions in the Red Sea expands, European companies will also suffer great losses.
Also, Ansarullah’s operations in the Red Sea are motivated by Gaza war and the movement made it clear over and over that if the Israeli massacring of Palestinians stops, they will end their operations. So, the Europeans do not want to add fuel to fire of war in the region, knowing that Ansarullah has warned it will take a tough revenge on anti-Yemeni aggressors and the Western maritime coalition.
